EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#61 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a
quick westward motion forecast to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Over the past few hours, a Mexican navy automatic weather
station on Clarion Island reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70
km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning
with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud
tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has
seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as
a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day
or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening.
Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours,
but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time.
Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it
is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The
post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4
(Monday).

The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than
normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward
and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night.
The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward
track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new
NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#62 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 116.9W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.9 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward motion
at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022

Bonnie appears to once again be on the cusp of weakening this
evening based on satellite imagery. A 2112 UTC GMI microwave pass
showed the storm had about a 30 nm diameter eye, which was also
apparent on visible imagery. Since this overpass, the eye has
become obscured by clouds and the infrared imagery shows the cloud
tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates range between 90 kt and 65 kt. The
initial intensity was held at 80 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB
and SAB estimates.

The hurricane is quickly approaching the 26 C ocean surface
temperature threshold. There is also a considerably dry air mass
working its way around the system. These two environmental
conditions should weaken Bonnie, which is expected to become
post-tropical within about two days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close the
consensus guidance.

The initial motion has turned more westward and increased to near
15 kt. The track philosophy has not changed. A mid-level ridge
continues to steer Bonnie westward and as the storm weakens, it is
expected to increase in forward speed as it follows the lower trade
winds. The model guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC
track forecast remains quite similar to both the previous advisory
and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 19.9N 130.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/1200Z 20.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#63 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:36 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 118.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 118.5 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane
strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Convection associated with Bonnie had decreased significantly in
coverage and intensity since the last advisory, with the primary
convection now confined to the northeastern quadrant. Satellite
intensity estimates have also decreased, and the initial intensity
is reduced to a possibly generous 75 kt. The cyclone has passed
over the 26C isotherm, and it continues to move over colder water
and into a drier air mass. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is
expected, with Bonnie weakening to a tropical storm in less than 24
h and becoming a post-tropical low by 48 h. The system is forecast
to degenerate to a trough after 72 h, and the global model guidance
suggests this could happen earlier than currently forecast.

The initial motion is 285/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Bonnie is expected to steer the cyclone or its remnants
generally westward with a slight increase in forward speed until
dissipation. The new track forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.2N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 19.7N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z 19.8N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#64 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:58 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 120.4W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 120.4 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A general westward motion
is expected during the next few days with a slight reduction in
forward speed Sunday through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane
strength later today and then become a post-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a
small area remaining near and north of the surface center. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4
0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory. Bonnie's moving over 25 deg
C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier,
stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone. Therefore,
further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection,
and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less.
As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast,
Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days.

The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt. Low- to
mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a
continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed
early Sunday. The model guidance remains in good agreement with
the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable
changes were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#65 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 3:34 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE
BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 121.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 121.8 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a quick westward
motion is expected to continue through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical
low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Bonnie's center remains embedded beneath a small Central Dense
Overcast which hasn't really shrunk any further in size during the
day. That said, satellite intensity estimates have continued to
decrease, and the estimated initial intensity of 55 kt is close to
the Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a 1519 UTC SATCON estimate. A
recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds around 50 kt, which also
supports an intensity of 55 kt given the instrument's low resolution
and Bonnie's small size. Sea surface temperatures below the storm
are now 24 to 25 degrees Celsius and will continue to get colder
over the next day or two while the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Therefore, Bonnie's deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours,
which is when it's shown becoming post-tropical in the forecast.
Winds will continue to gradually decrease, and the system is
expected to dissipate in 3 days, if not sooner.

The current motion is north of due west, or 280/16 kt. Low- to
mid-level ridging is expected to keep Bonnie on a quick westward
track at 15 to 20 kt during the next couple of days until
dissipation. The NHC track forecast was nudged southward after 24
hours to fall closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but that
update is fairly negligible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.6N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#66 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 123.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 123.7 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn to
the west is expected on Saturday and that motion should continue
through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical on Saturday. The post-tropical
low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Bonnie continues to produce an area of deep convection near the
center, but stable air is entraining into the circulation and some
dry slots have become evident during the past couple of hours. The
Dvorak intensity estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin, SAB, and TAFB range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is nudged down to 50 kt for this
advisory.

Bonnie is currently over cool 24C waters and it is headed for even
cooler waters during the next day or so. These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with a stable air mass should cause additional
weakening, and Bonnie will likely become a post-tropical cyclone by
late Saturday. The post-tropical system should open into a trough
late in the weekend or early next week when it moves into a region
of moderate to strong vertical wind shear.

The tropical storm is moving relatively quickly west-northwestward
at 17 kt. A turn to the west within the low-level flow is expected
on Saturday, and that motion should continue until Bonnie
dissipates. The models are in good agreement, and this forecast
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.1N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.4N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 10/1200Z 19.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 19.6N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#67 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE WEAKENS FURTHER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 125.5W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 125.5 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bonnie is
expected to become post-tropical later today or tonight. The
post-tropical low should then dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Bonnie has decreased over the past
several hours, with only a small area of convection remaining in
the northeastern quadrant. The various satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-55 kt range, and based on these and the
convective trends the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

Bonnie should continue to weaken as it moves over cool sea surface
temperatures and as it ingests a drier air mass. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h, and the global
models are in good agreement that the system will weaken to a
trough by 60 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 280/17 kt. Bonnie or its remnants should
move quickly westward in the low-level trade winds until the
system dissipates. The new forecast track is in the center of the
tightly-clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.3N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 19.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 19.6N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 127.7W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 127.7 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion should continue until Bonnie dissipates early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bonnie should
become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The post-tropical low
should dissipate by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with
Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper
convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical
cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates
continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to
35 kt in this advisory.

The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As
Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward
by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster,
remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope.

Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded
in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are
expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the
system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center,
Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this
afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with
Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation
opening up into a trough in 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Advisories

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...BONNIE'S LONG VOYAGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ENDS AS IT BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 129.4W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 129.4 West. Bonnie
is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast through Sunday, and the post-tropical
low is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg



Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Bonnie has now been devoid of deep convection for over 12 hours,
which means it has degenerated into a post-tropical low and this
will be the last advisory. An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed
maximum winds between 35 and 40 kt, so with the assumption of some
continued weakening, the advisory intensity is 35 kt. Additional
gradual weakening is anticipated over the next day or so while the
convection-less low moves quickly westward between 15-18 kt over
waters of 23-24 degrees Celsius and further into a drier, more
stable air mass. Global model surface fields indicate that
Bonnie's circulation should open up into a trough by Sunday night,
and dissipation is now shown in the forecast at 36 hours.

For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 19.5N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/1800Z 19.5N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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