EPAC: Ex INVEST 94E

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EPAC: Ex INVEST 94E

#1 Postby zzh » Mon Jun 27, 2022 4:25 pm

EP, 94, 2022062718, , BEST, 0, 107N, 954W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772022 to ep942022,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:21 pm

GFS once again develops this as it interacts with the monsoon trough but it’s currently battling a displaced ULAC (of course) and it’s LLC has become naked this afternoon after looking almost classifiable earlier.

Image

Image

ECMWF now shows some development near 130W as well.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 27, 2022 6:28 pm

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles offshore the coast of southern Mexico is producing some
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly to the north
and west of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive for some gradual development during the next
few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 27, 2022 10:06 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942022 06/28/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 44 51 57 60 61 59 55 48 42 34 26
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 44 51 57 60 61 59 55 48 42 34 26
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 40 43 42 38 32 25 20 16 N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 10 5 9 3 2 2 1 4 5 8 9 16 15 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -2 4 1 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1
SHEAR DIR 90 77 67 91 80 46 117 73 33 324 281 255 271 276 287 280 260
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.4 27.8 27.3 25.7 25.2 23.4 22.0 21.9 22.0 20.8 19.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 154 153 148 151 144 138 122 117 98 83 80 80 67 59
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 76 74 73 69 68 62 61 57 54 49 45 38 36 31
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 10 8 6 4
850 MB ENV VOR 5 16 17 16 3 -2 -4 -7 -19 -34 -45 -41 -47 -42 -47 -68 -108
200 MB DIV 4 -4 0 8 23 43 41 18 -3 9 14 -3 -11 -24 -23 -32 -21
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 2 2 0 3 3 2 4 6 7 7 6 10 6 1
LAND (KM) 533 525 516 531 572 618 703 854 885 997 1114 1284 1381 1460 1469 1433 1362
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.0 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.4 98.7 100.2 101.8 105.1 108.5 111.6 114.4 117.1 120.0 122.8 125.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 16 17 17 15 14 14 14 14 12 8 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 13 20 24 30 23 11 14 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 28. 26. 23. 20. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 34. 30. 23. 17. 9. 1.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 96.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 14.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 11.1% 4.6% 2.4% 0.9% 2.7% 0.6% 9.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 9.7% 6.2% 0.8% 0.3% 5.8% 5.4% 3.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/28/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 27, 2022 11:04 pm

It's going to be fighting time like the others. Easterly shear for the next 72 hours. Then when the shear relaxes its over 25C waters by then.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:29 am

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure is centered a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thunderstorm
activity associated with the low has increased during the past
several hours but remains somewhat disorganized. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form within the next few days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:14 pm

Image

Classifiable.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:25 pm

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern
Mexico are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional gradual
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:09 pm

Its getting hit by shear but we can clearly see the circulation there. Odds should be higher. Actually should be a TD.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:15 pm

70%

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small low pressure
system centered a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico show signs of increased organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
gradual development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely form while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:00 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 282352
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 12.2N

D. 103.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0, MET AND
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:21 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942022 06/29/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 34 31 28 25 21 15 N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 47 45 42 38 34 31 28 25 21 15 N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 36 33 29 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 1 2 5 14 13 14 18 18 18 19 14 19 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 0 3 -1 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 19 3 13 4 116 193 231 247 222 220 217 214 221 217 215 231 210
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 26.7 25.0 25.0 23.6 23.1 23.0 23.6 23.4 23.0 23.2 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 152 152 150 133 116 115 100 94 92 98 95 91 92 91
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 72 71 69 66 64 58 56 52 46 42 40 39 39 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 2 15 19 15 5 2 -13 4 -7 -12 -23 -27 -42 -54 -50 -72
200 MB DIV 14 30 60 59 37 24 53 74 62 44 18 7 -13 -9 -6 -14 5
700-850 TADV -2 -5 -1 3 2 6 1 3 4 5 3 5 10 9 11 7 5
LAND (KM) 618 662 715 776 861 1002 1152 1330 1530 1719 1878 2047 2114 1954 1820 1732 1698
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.2 17.9 18.7 19.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.3 105.4 107.3 109.1 110.9 114.4 117.8 121.3 124.6 127.9 130.5 132.7 134.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 12 10 9 7 6 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 15 14 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 14. 12. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 103.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.90 6.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 24.8% 21.1% 19.9% 0.0% 19.8% 16.8% 12.9%
Logistic: 9.4% 42.9% 30.4% 19.9% 4.9% 19.1% 6.5% 5.1%
Bayesian: 0.2% 6.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.4% 24.6% 17.5% 13.4% 1.7% 13.3% 7.9% 6.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:50 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:56 pm

Too elongated NE to SW.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:04 pm

TXPZ24 KNES 291801
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 13.8N

D. 108.1W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS GREATER THAN 2/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF
1.0. MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1329Z 13.5N 107.6W SSMIS


...KIBLER
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:27 pm

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Hi trough.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#17 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:05 pm

Yeah structurally, much less organized today.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:22 pm

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LLC needs to re-form (appears to be southeast of the convection) but this is organizing. Global models agree on further development before this moves over SSTs that do not support persistent convection.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:48 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942022 06/30/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 50 47 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 50 47 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 37 37 35 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 1 3 6 9 8 8 15 17 20 18 18 18 23 21 25 28 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -6 -7 -2 1 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -1
SHEAR DIR 114 153 179 196 209 233 193 188 195 201 199 192 199 212 204 215 209
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.8 26.4 25.6 23.7 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.2 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.9 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 153 149 145 130 121 101 96 95 97 93 88 88 89 88 85
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 68 67 67 63 60 56 50 46 43 40 40 35 34 30
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 10 9 9 8 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 4 -1 -3 -7 12 2 -11 -20 -23 -32 -38 -38 -62 -90 -111
200 MB DIV 15 0 12 37 73 74 74 65 9 23 7 -10 -12 -9 -6 6 19
700-850 TADV 3 0 2 4 2 2 7 0 5 3 7 7 9 8 7 5 0
LAND (KM) 947 1062 1106 1151 1224 1387 1563 1719 1879 2047 2115 1923 1777 1657 1605 1585 1594
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.9 114.7 116.4 118.0 121.4 124.6 127.5 130.2 132.5 134.6 136.4 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 17 13 32 17 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. 7. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 1. -0. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 20. 17. 9. 2. -5. -12. -18. -23. -30. -39.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 111.1

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 20.4% 18.2% 17.0% 0.0% 17.2% 14.6% 9.5%
Logistic: 10.8% 29.0% 14.7% 9.3% 5.4% 6.1% 2.3% 0.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 3.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.5% 17.6% 11.1% 8.8% 1.9% 7.8% 5.6% 3.4%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942022 INVEST 06/30/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:49 pm

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of
organization, but according to satellite-derived surface wind
data, the system does not have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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