ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

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ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Jun 28, 2022 1:46 am

AL, 95, 2022062806, , BEST, 0, 264N, 920W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al952022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:39 am

925mb has increased somewhat and is stacked up to 500mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:49 am

tropicwatch wrote:925mb has increased somewhat and is stacked up to 500mb.


So you are saying shear is low off Texas? which should be evident when we start getting visible images of the convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:00 am

Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby Tailgater33 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:49 am

MGC wrote:Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC


I can see a vortex almost due south of Lafayette on SWIR 26.7N 82.4W should be drifting toward Texas coast hoping it gets inland before much development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:57 am

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:59 am

No models section?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:58 am

AL, 95, 2022062812, , BEST, 0, 266N, 923W, 25, 1014, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:59 am

SoupBone wrote:No models section?


The thread is up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:50 am

Tailgater33 wrote:
MGC wrote:Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC


I can see a vortex almost due south of Lafayette on SWIR 26.7N 82.4W should be drifting toward Texas coast hoping it gets inland before much development


For sure now on the visible, hoping for some good rain.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Frank P » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:10 am

Starting to look interesting on the latest vis sat loop with a center perhaps trying to form at 26.7n and 92.6w.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:10 am

And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:43 am

SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.


Yeah going to be a slow thread for a while, I think STORM2K has maybe 3 members south of Victoria/Laredo line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:44 am

Circulation really becoming defined this morning

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby KirbyDude25 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:57 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Circulation really becoming defined this morning

https://imgur.com/PPfyt9v

If that's the case, I wonder how likely it is that this could snipe Bonnie from PTC 2, sort of like the Wilfred/Alpha/Beta situation from 2020. If this thing's able to get its act together, I could see that happening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby Wampadawg » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:19 am

lrak wrote:
SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.


Yeah going to be a slow thread for a while, I think STORM2K has maybe 3 members south of Victoria/Laredo line.

Starting to see some local chatter
https://twitter.com/travisabc13/status/ ... 4ckYVWSBWg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:28 am

SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.


You do realize that most of the rain will be well east of the center, right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:37 am

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.


You do realize that most of the rain will be well east of the center, right?


If you look at the modeling I quoted (which is gone on my screen for some reason), the landfall for most of the models is way further south, leaving the Houston area with limited rain. But yeah, someone will be getting some rain for sure.

From the KHOU site.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby underthwx » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:11 pm

95L looking like it needs a Gatorade or something, not too impressive atm, which is cool with me...but I do hope for some rain, just like everyone else does...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:38 pm

underthwx wrote:95L looking like it needs a Gatorade or something, not too impressive atm, which is cool with me...but I do hope for some rain, just like everyone else does...


Heading towards DMIN. This is not unusual for the convection to wane a little. Imo, I think this will be Bonnie or Colin at landfall.
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