ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#121 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:27 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#122 Postby underthwx » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:39 am

Wampadawg wrote:
underthwx wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
I'm being impatient, so far nothing here, it's not even cloudy. Clear skies, high heat in Cypress.


Hang in there Soupbone, sooner or later you should get some relief



Flood watch issued for us in Brazoria county until Friday evening


I wasn't aware of that, thanks for the update
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#123 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:51 am

Almost looks like there are two centers per radar? One already onshore near Galveston? What am I seeing?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#124 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:55 am

Yeah it's like it's getting near me in Cypress then something zaps it out of the sky. Depressing for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#125 Postby underthwx » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:07 pm

Nederlander wrote:Almost looks like there are two centers per radar? One already onshore near Galveston? What am I seeing?


I saw that as well
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#126 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:08 pm

Nederlander wrote:Almost looks like there are two centers per radar? One already onshore near Galveston? What am I seeing?

Looks like it to me. Radar beam height at the location of that center is only 1000-1500 ft so it’s not like it’s an mlc
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#127 Postby capNstorms » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:29 pm

Does it look like 95L separated from its old center and jumped east and Is now trying to form a new center off the coast of Galveston?

Look here at this loop
https://col.st/iPn5n
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#128 Postby MBryant » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:32 pm

Localized heavy rain yesterday afternoon (3" in a few minutes) in Orange. Disorganized two eyed circulations in early season Gulf systems are nothing new. I first heard one described about 1970. They are just easier to see with better radar and satellite images. I just note less organized doesn't mean less rainfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#129 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:51 pm

2 PM TWO.

1. Western Gulf of Mexico:
Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and
thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the
southern coast of Texas have changed little in organization since
this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward
and inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of
this system is possible while the low remains over water and it
could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves
inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along
portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#130 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:56 pm

SoupBone wrote:Yeah it's like it's getting near me in Cypress then something zaps it out of the sky. Depressing for sure.


Not looking good for areas west of IH-45 seeing significant rainfall from this system. Latest radar and HRRR trends are for the heaviest rain to remain east of Houston. Was hoping for some drought relief from this system but I don't like our chances much anymore...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#131 Postby davidiowx » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:09 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah it's like it's getting near me in Cypress then something zaps it out of the sky. Depressing for sure.


Not looking good for areas west of IH-45 seeing significant rainfall from this system. Latest radar and HRRR trends are for the heaviest rain to remain east of Houston. Was hoping for some drought relief from this system but I don't like our chances much anymore...


Yea it isn't looking good and pretty odd they issued a FFW for all of our area considering the models don't really do much. Perhaps they are thinking the NAM solution plays out?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#132 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:56 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah it's like it's getting near me in Cypress then something zaps it out of the sky. Depressing for sure.


Not looking good for areas west of IH-45 seeing significant rainfall from this system. Latest radar and HRRR trends are for the heaviest rain to remain east of Houston. Was hoping for some drought relief from this system but I don't like our chances much anymore...


Yeah this stinks. Cloudy now, and looks like it wants to rain, but nothing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#133 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:39 pm

SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Yeah it's like it's getting near me in Cypress then something zaps it out of the sky. Depressing for sure.


Not looking good for areas west of IH-45 seeing significant rainfall from this system. Latest radar and HRRR trends are for the heaviest rain to remain east of Houston. Was hoping for some drought relief from this system but I don't like our chances much anymore...


Yeah this stinks. Cloudy now, and looks like it wants to rain, but nothing.


I’m not far from you soupbone in the spring area. Doesn’t look good for us.. I think we got really unlucky on this one
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#134 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:51 pm

Nederlander wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Not looking good for areas west of IH-45 seeing significant rainfall from this system. Latest radar and HRRR trends are for the heaviest rain to remain east of Houston. Was hoping for some drought relief from this system but I don't like our chances much anymore...


Yeah this stinks. Cloudy now, and looks like it wants to rain, but nothing.


I’m not far from you soupbone in the spring area. Doesn’t look good for us.. I think we got really unlucky on this one



I keep seeing on the old KHOU forum that we still have some chance tomorrow morning but I'm not confident.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#135 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:57 pm

Looks like the entire system has a NE drift to it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#136 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:59 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Yeah this stinks. Cloudy now, and looks like it wants to rain, but nothing.


I’m not far from you soupbone in the spring area. Doesn’t look good for us.. I think we got really unlucky on this one





I keep seeing on the old KHOU forum that we still have some chance tomorrow morning but I'm not confident.


Yeah, I don’t buy it. I’ve seen 50-70% every day this week and haven’t seen a drop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#137 Postby kassi » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:12 pm

Nederlander wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
I’m not far from you soupbone in the spring area. Doesn’t look good for us.. I think we got really unlucky on this one





I keep seeing on the old KHOU forum that we still have some chance tomorrow morning but I'm not confident.


Yeah, I don’t buy it. I’ve seen 50-70% every day this week and haven’t seen a drop.


I think it's hit or miss. It's rained here a good to decent amount every day since Saturday or Sunday. I'm a few miles west of Beaumont. The storm Sunday night knocked out power to half of our subdivision. We had a lot of branches down and a few trees in the area. They haven't always been large storms, but have tracked right over us, also bringing lots of thunder and lightning.

I also saw a lot of standing water in Beaumont yesterday. Hopefully everyone gets in on it the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#138 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jun 30, 2022 4:29 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#139 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:15 pm

I blame this all on Wxman57. He complained about having to work extra and the weather gods gave him a reprieve.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#140 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:44 pm

capNstorms wrote:Does it look like 95L separated from its old center and jumped east and Is now trying to form a new center off the coast of Galveston?

Look here at this loop
https://col.st/iPn5n

That is exactly what I saw earlier and then one of our local ocm Travis Herzog confirmed it. I think we have been skunked if you live W of I45!
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