ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#81 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:08 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.


I was actually thinking that earlier as well. It'll be a little funny seeing two Twos on the map. :lol:


Thing 1 and Thing 2...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#82 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.


You do it for the people and the honor, sir. :) :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#83 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:14 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Looks like a broad, weak circulation in the NW Gulf. In the past, it would be ignored until it develops some organized convection around it. Today, who knows? FL winds below 25 kts. SFMR 25 to 28 kts. My vote is disturbance. Of course, if NHC calls it TD Two, then I get to work an extra hour or two. What would they call PTC Two, then? Change it to PTC Three? Probably not. NHC folks are probably debating that issue.


You do it for the people and the honor, sir. :) :D


It's lonely at the top wxman57...but in all seriousness, that's an excellent question..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#84 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:27 pm

Not to beat a dead horse, or stray from the topic,, I would think that since PTC2 was already designated as such, it so remains, and 95L, if the powers that be so decide, that 95L either remains a disturbance, or, be designated a depression If the NHC feels that the available data suggests, that 95L is imminently on its way to becoming a TD, would declare it PTC 3, or TD3 outright...(I gave myself a headache, thinking that through, hopefully none of yall)
Last edited by underthwx on Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:08 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#85 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:31 pm

So far it looks like recon is going with the area east of Brownsville.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#86 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:49 pm

Did they close off a enter?

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#87 Postby KirbyDude25 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:52 pm


Looks pretty center-y to me. If this thing gets more convection near that center, it'd probably be classifiable
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#88 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:53 pm

Very light winds
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#89 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:58 pm

KirbyDude25 wrote:

Looks pretty center-y to me. If this thing gets more convection near that center, it'd probably be classifiable


As I look at 95L on satellite, to me it looks as if it's still a disturbance, rather than a depression?....coupled with the fact the 2pm outlook is holding at 40% chance of development...like wxman57 eluded to earlier...I too vote disturbance...for now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#90 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:09 pm

Despite the clear evidence of a surface LLC and enough of a pressure difference to assure anyone doubting the legitimacy of the wind readings, I can't imagine this system gets upgraded until we go through dmax, primarily due to a lack of deep convection near the center. Depending on when the next flight is, we might get a TD then. As for now, not much will happen for the next few hours as we approach dmin over the Gulf of Mexico.

Though some may claim otherwise, the NHC has definitely been increasingly stringent on whether systems get designated, especially in the past half-decade or so. I can't imagine that they reverse this trend just for a system looking like this, which they haven't even given coinflip odds for. I've been wrong before, but I would be very surprised if this becomes a TD before 11 AM ET tomorrow, given current convective trends.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#91 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:10 pm

In this case, IF the NHC decides to upgrade the broad weak low to a TD, it would be TD Three. I still say it doesn't qualify, and convection has diminished during the day. I already have an advisory typed and ready to go if NHC calls it a TD, though.

P.S. Recon sent a vortex message, but that doesn't mean they're going to call it a TD:

706
URNT12 KNHC 292024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952022
A. 29/19:27:10Z
B. 25.69 deg N 095.33 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 1014 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 24 kt
I. 121 deg 42 nm 19:13:00Z
J. 178 deg 18 kt
K. 121 deg 44 nm 19:12:30Z
L. 25 kt
M. 309 deg 63 nm 19:48:30Z
N. 028 deg 25 kt
O. 308 deg 96 nm 20:00:00Z
P. 25 C / 129 m
Q. 26 C / 130 m
R. 24 C / NA
S. 134 / 01
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 25 KT 308 / 96 NM 20:00:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 27 C 125 / 23 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#92 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:59 pm

This thing looks pretty pathetic at the moment, I guess DMIN?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#93 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:04 pm

SoupBone wrote:This thing looks pretty pathetic at the moment, I guess DMIN?

Yep - should get a boost after that passes. It's close enough to shore that the sea-breeze circulation is dominant for now, so I don't really expect more than a few cells attempting to re-fire near the center until after sunset.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#94 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:27 pm

Good decision by NHC. This doesn't qualify as a TD. Come on, rain! I just measured 0.14" in a thunderstorms. Could use a lot more.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#95 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good decision by NHC. This doesn't qualify as a TD. Come on, rain! I just measured 0.14" in a thunderstorms. Could use a lot more.


Even 0.14" sounds good xman!....total here so far...nada
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#96 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good decision by NHC. This doesn't qualify as a TD. Come on, rain! I just measured 0.14" in a thunderstorms. Could use a lot more.


I'm not getting crap yet!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#97 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:Good decision by NHC. This doesn't qualify as a TD. Come on, rain! I just measured 0.14" in a thunderstorms. Could use a lot more.


I’ve only received 8.25” all year and I’m afraid I might miss out on this chance too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#98 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:34 pm

Personally, I think this will become a TD, but not until DMAX tomorrow morning or just before landfall on Friday. If it finally starts organizing tomorrow morning, it might have a small chance of becoming a weak TS right before landfall (assuming DMIN does not rapidly diminish convection again).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#99 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:05 pm

Is this thing gonna crash into TexMex? That could drastically change the rainfall totals for some areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#100 Postby underthwx » Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:16 pm

SoupBone wrote:Is this thing gonna crash into TexMex? That could drastically change the rainfall totals for some areas.


Think I read the low will come ashore just SW of Matagorda Bay, or thereabouts? Then turn NWD, it's gonna be feast or famine for some, regarding rainfall...
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