ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:46 am

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:18 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby Senobia » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:56 am

What's the big turn dependent on, an approaching front?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:06 am

Senobia wrote:What's the big turn dependent on, an approaching front?


No, a weakness in the high pressure ridge over east Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:52 am



These models are quite a bit different than the short term mesoscale models. Those have landfall much further east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#6 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:10 pm

GFS doesn't do much with it, but it does look like we would get some rain out of it. Anyone have the latest GFS rainfall forecast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:14 pm

12z Euro has the heaviest rainfall from Matagorda County NE to the Golden Triangle. I think this is pretty realistic. The only part that doesn't make much sense is that it shows the heaviest rain in Mississippi. I think it will be closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#8 Postby bohai » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:35 pm

I live about 70 mi NW of San Antonio. My weather station has recorded only 2.93" of rain since Jan 1. We really need it as we are in an Exceptional Drought classification with no lawn watering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#9 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:39 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:12z Euro has the heaviest rainfall from Matagorda County NE to the Golden Triangle. I think this is pretty realistic. The only part that doesn't make much sense is that it shows the heaviest rain in Mississippi. I think it will be closer to the coast.



The Euro definitely shows more moisture associated with this than the GFS does. The GFS keeps most of the rain south of Victoria.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#10 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:46 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#11 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:47 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#12 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:05 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:


East shift


Till it flips back West and South again. :lol:

Maybe they'll split the difference in the end.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#13 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Jun 28, 2022 4:58 pm

Turning around the ridge could potentially allow ever so slightly more time over water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 8:12 pm

Either Tropical Tidbits is having issues or the hurricane models did not run at 12z for some reason. I can only find the 06z runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#15 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jun 28, 2022 9:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#16 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 28, 2022 10:05 pm



Is it really that far south?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#17 Postby Craters » Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:18 pm



That looks fine to me, as long as those time markers stay that far apart!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#18 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:44 pm

18z HRRR and NAM 3km both show some very heavy rainfall totals possible starting Friday morning. HRRR has an area just offshore of 20+ inches. The NAM shows almost 15 inches in Matagorda County. The trend is more rain for inland areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#19 Postby Craters » Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:38 pm

Is anybody familiar enough with the ICON to say why heavy rain accumulations always seem to be mapped as stopping at the coast?

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Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 29, 2022 8:24 pm

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