EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

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EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:32 pm

EP, 95, 2022070718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 996W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, ep782022 to ep952022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep952022.dat

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:45 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952022 07/07/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 36 43 50 54 58 61 62 60 57 49 42
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 36 43 50 54 58 61 62 60 57 49 42
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 25 24 23 20 16 N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 18 16 10 8 7 4 7 12 9 13 10 10 16 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 2 -2 0 0 -3 0 3 0 5
SHEAR DIR 14 9 7 6 7 10 11 11 360 310 294 295 292 297 240 219 211
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.3 25.7 24.1 23.8 23.1 22.5
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 148 145 146 149 148 143 141 127 121 105 101 93 86
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 79 79 79 80 79 76 75 72 68 64 59 57 52 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 10 13 14 15 16 16 14 12
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -36 -38 -31 -20 -21 -6 -16 -5 4 1 -9 -18 -15 -13 -1 -5
200 MB DIV 18 28 32 30 40 52 31 6 -11 4 41 52 40 23 24 10 -5
700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -3 1 2 0 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 3 4 8
LAND (KM) 689 725 772 814 842 896 970 1086 1177 1240 1354 1437 1579 1696 1820 1934 2046
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.9 102.2 103.6 104.9 107.3 109.7 112.2 114.7 117.1 119.7 122.2 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 23 23 17 17 22 18 11 12 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 23. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. 40. 37. 29. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 99.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/07/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.0% 7.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2.8% 21.5% 59.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 7.2% 20.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/07/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:01 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:19 pm

Kingarabian Reaches in a weak way to the south of Hawaii.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:25 pm

This has more potential than one would expect due to its low latitude and strong ridging to its north likely to keep this moving west and over warm SSTs for longer.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#6 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:32 pm

Next name is Darby, the last time that a storm named Darby was not a major was 1986, so it's got quite a streak going. This may have a decent chance to keep that streak alive.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:25 pm

5 PM PDT.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the southern
coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
over the weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:47 pm

Image

Image

GFS and ECMWF keeps shear low for several days even as the storm will be well aligned with a ULAC.

Image

Image

No soundings for these but the GEFS and EPS have near 20 knot winds aloft but when the storm is moving west parallel with the shear vector and the storm is moving at 10 knots, it's actually potentially very favorable for deepening.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:32 pm

EP, 95, 2022070800, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1010W, 20, 1009, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:24 pm

Already has good rotation.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:27 am

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form well southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend or early next week
while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:09 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:28 pm

11 AM PDT. Future Darby take advantage as it will move thru warm waters as it moves south of 15n for a fairly long period.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico are gradually becoming better
organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
central or western part of the eastern North Pacific basin during
the weekend or early next week while moving generally westward at 15
to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 1:14 pm

First runs from HMON and HWRF have a cat 2.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 6:41 pm

5 PM PDT.

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the central or western part of the eastern
North Pacific basin later this weekend or early next week while the
system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 08, 2022 7:15 pm

In the short term it will be slow to develop because of some outflow boundaries popping out.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:11 pm

:uarrow: I don't see why outflow boundaries would be an issue here unless the outflow consumes a potential LLC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 08, 2022 8:11 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952022 07/09/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 46 54 60 65 68 67 65 58 56 51 47
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 46 54 60 65 68 67 65 58 56 51 47
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 32 33 33 31 27 22 19 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 1 5 9 4 13 17 15 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 -2 3 1 0 -2 3 5 4 8 6 3 3 1
SHEAR DIR 316 318 307 276 242 281 197 165 154 319 258 292 271 244 250 260 254
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.5 25.1 25.6 25.6 25.0 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 152 148 145 143 146 140 135 130 122 119 115 120 119 113 112
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 74 74 77 75 75 74 75 74 73 69 67 65 64 62 57 54 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 12 13 15 18 20 20 19 16 16 14 13
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -17 -6 0 -1 -18 -3 0 7 0 1 0 -6 -9 -11 -18 -22
200 MB DIV 53 29 22 23 15 14 14 35 66 62 51 39 14 -22 -8 -18 -38
700-850 TADV 2 -2 1 4 3 0 5 3 2 0 -2 -5 -1 1 3 1 5
LAND (KM) 752 807 892 988 1030 1189 1394 1600 1804 2003 2183 2298 2033 1787 1545 1343 1120
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.6 111.1 112.5 113.9 117.0 120.2 123.1 125.8 128.4 131.0 133.6 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 18 20 19 13 16 12 13 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 30. 29. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 16. 14. 9. 8. 6. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 21. 29. 35. 40. 43. 42. 40. 33. 31. 26. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.0

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 5.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 15.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 8.8% 42.2% 25.1% 17.1% 5.0% 28.9% 18.8% 23.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 7.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 24.0% 14.8% 5.8% 1.7% 16.3% 12.0% 7.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 14.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 07/09/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 09, 2022 5:56 am

TXPZ26 KNES 090617
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)

B. 09/0530Z

C. 13.2N

D. 109.7W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT
OF A 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:53 am

70%-90%

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
Recent satellite imagery indicates that the coverage and
organization of shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
significantly overnight in association with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
central part of the eastern North Pacific basin today or tomorrow
while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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