EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane

#281 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:31 pm

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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane

#282 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:37 pm

It's managed to surpass Bonnie in ACE. Perhaps enough life left to make 17+ units.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane

#283 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:57 pm

EP, 05, 2022071500, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1427W, 80, 983, HU
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#284 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:29 am

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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#285 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:17 am

Finally getting exposed. I'd expect full PTC by Saturday afternoon.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#286 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:56 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Finally getting exposed. I'd expect full PTC by Saturday afternoon.


I always read this as Potential Tropical Cyclone :lol:
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#287 Postby Astromanía » Fri Jul 15, 2022 11:59 am

weeniepatrol wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Finally getting exposed. I'd expect full PTC by Saturday afternoon.


I always read this as Potential Tropical Cyclone :lol:

Me too hahaha
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#288 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 15, 2022 12:28 pm

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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#289 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:07 pm

TXPN23 KNES 151815
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 15/1731Z

C. 17.5N

D. 146.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO SUDDEN LOSS
OF CONVECTION. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER LAST 24
HOURS. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS THAT PREVENT THE CHANGE OF
FT 1 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#290 Postby TallyTracker » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:00 pm

Darby already looks like a remnant low. Albeit one with strong TS winds yet. Good chance it will be post-tropical within 12 hours assuming a lone thunderstorm cell doesn’t prolong the decay.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#291 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:34 pm

I agree that Darby looks like a remnant low now. NHC saying a "conservative" 50 kts, but all Dvorak numbers are 2.0 or lower. ASCAT-B hit it at 1915Z. Has one 35kt barb on NW side, otherwise 20-30 kts. Probably weaker now. I have to do it...

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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#292 Postby aspen » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:45 pm

It’s so strange how the NHC has pulled the plug on systems that were still generating a bit of convection, but they’re calling Darby’s naked swirl a 60 mph TS.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#293 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 15, 2022 6:13 pm

Darby hasn’t been declared a post tropical remnant low yet because it hasn’t been devoid of deep convection for 12 hours. The reason that criteria is in place is in case deep convection re-develops. Post-season the NHC generally pushes post-tropical status up 12 hours if deep convection fails to redevelop.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#294 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:27 pm

TXPN23 KNES 152356
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 17.5N

D. 148.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME PURELY TROPICAL IN NATURE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


???
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#295 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:29 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TXPN23 KNES 152356
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 17.5N

D. 148.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME PURELY TROPICAL IN NATURE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


???


Why is subtropical?
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#296 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:47 pm

05E DARBY 220716 0000 17.7N 148.5W EPAC 40 1006
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#297 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:46 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TXPN23 KNES 152356
TCSCNP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 17.5N

D. 148.3W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. SUBTROPICAL

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME PURELY TROPICAL IN NATURE.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


???


Welp this fix is an instant hall of famer
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#298 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:40 am

Still a TS.

EP, 05, 2022071612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1524W, 40, 1006, TS
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#299 Postby Astromanía » Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:32 am

Wow still alive
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Tropical Storm

#300 Postby sikkar » Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:18 pm

Rain shield approaching main island.
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