EPAC: DARBY - Remnants

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow the weakening is coming on fast now. Structure still looks pretty good but man are those cloud tops warming

[al78]

This might be a dumb question but why don't the hurricane hunters fly into the storms from above the eye instead of blasting through the eyewall?

The aircraft cannot fly that high. The deep convection extends to 15 km altitude.

[al78]

Is it just me, or do EPAC storms tend to have higher pressures than their Atlantic counterparts in many cases (especially low to mid-end Cat 4 storms?) I would think for a 140 mph hurricane, the minimum pressure would be expected to be in the 940s or so? For example, Douglas 2020 was 130/954, Genevieve 2020 was 130/950, Felicia 2021 was 145/945, and Linda 2021 was 130/953. Compare that to many Atlantic storms (like Harvey was 130/937, Danielle 2010 was 130/942, Ophelia 2011 was 140/940, Gonzalo 2014 was 145/940, and Sam was at one point 140/943?)

Compact storms like this one can support stronger winds for a given central pressure. It is the radial pressure gradient which matters.

[ElectricStorm]

Cloud tops have cooled again. Still going strong

[aspen]

Cloud tops have cooled again. Still going strong

Now the eye has started cooling, though. Darby is probably on its way out now.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 121202
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 14.7N

D. 128.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=5.5 AFTER ADDING 0.5 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1546829540722233345

[cycloneye]

Begins to go down on intensity.

EP, 05, 2022071212, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1290W, 115, 957, HU

[cheezyWXguy]

Darby really stepped up the annular presentation overnight, but if it can manage the cooling sst’s long enough to finish this ERC and carve out that larger eye, it’ll basically be a full-on donut

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

[cheezyWXguy]

So much for the ERC theory

[Ntxw]

Darby is making a jog southwest. That'll help with a burst of strengthening.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Darby is improving once again. The eye warmed up and the north easterly shear has calmed down a bit.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 121806
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 12/1730Z

C. 14.6N

D. 130.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND
EMBEDDED IN MG FOR A DT=4.5 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

Terrible fix. Embedded in LG and eye is WMG.

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2022071218, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1305W, 105, 966, HU

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

TXPZ26 KNES 121806
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

-snip-

F. T4.5/5.5

-snip-

Terrible fix. Embedded in LG and eye is WMG.

How in the hell did they manage to pull off a T4.5 fix when the system has pretty consistently been fluctuating between T5.5 and T6.0 for the last twelve hours?

Completely agreed, bad fix. Have to be better especially with these smaller systems, since the Dvorak technique consistently underestimates and cannot properly recognize the structure of such storms. Thankfully NHC's recent discussions (especially from Papin) show that they're aware of this flaw. Here's hoping a more permanent resolution can be achieved in the near-future with Dvorak constraints/criteria.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1546929075826044928




 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1546881834880868352




 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/1546894862053625856

[Sciencerocks]