EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

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EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:51 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 113.5 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual slowdown over the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Darby is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
300 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring well offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico has become much better organized on
conventional satellite imagery throughout the day. The current
structure on visible satellite imagery consists of a well-defined
curved band to the north and west with what already appears to be a
small central dense overcast forming near the estimated center. In
fact, there is already a small dimple beginning to appear on the
last few frames of visible satellite imagery which could be the
initial indications that a small inner core is forming. While C-band
scatterometer imagery (ASCAT-B/C) largely missed the small storm
earlier today, there was a KU-band scatterometer late this morning
that had enough non-rain contaminated vectors to indicate the system
likely possesses a closed circulation. The subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC from TAFB/SAB were both T2.0/30 kt, but
given the continued improvement on satellite imagery since then,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Darby at this time,
with winds of 35 kt.

The current motion of Darby is just north of due west at 280/14 kt.
A general due westward motion is expected over the next 24-48 h as
the small storm is situated on the south side of a expansive
deep-layer subtropical ridge centered over the southwestern United
States. Towards the end of the forecast period, Darby will be
approaching a weakness in this ridge, which may allow the storm to
start gaining latitude after 48 hours. The initial track forecast of
Darby is very close to the reliable track consensus aids, though is
just a shade further north, in deference to both the GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

The structure of Darby is quite impressive for a system that has
only recently formed. In addition, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance indicate that the small storm will remain in a low
shear (under 10 kt), warm sea-surface temperatures (above 28C), and
sufficient mid-level moisture for the next 2-3 days. Assuming an
inner core forms relatively soon, this environment likely favors
quick intensification. In fact, the ECMWF SHIPS-RII guidance
indicates a 44 percent chance of a 25 kt or higher increase in
intensity over the next 24 hours. While the current NHC intensity
forecast will not go that high quite yet, it does make Darby a
hurricane in only 36 h. This intensity forecast is on the upper-end
of the guidance envelope, but not far off the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) that is also near hurricane intensity in
36 h. Late in the forecast, Darby will likely encounter cooler ocean
waters and much higher shear, which should begin to induce weakening
by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.3N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.4N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.5N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 14.4N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 14.6N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.6N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPSC: DARBY - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

...DARBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days or so, and
Darby is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Flynn


Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
900 PM MDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Conventional satellite data and
passive microwave imagery indicate its inner core convection has
waned a bit this evening, but it has maintained some curved
convective bands around its center and signs of healthy upper-level
outflow. Hopefully, scatterometer data becomes available overnight
to better assess its current intensity. A blend of the subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T3.0/45 kt)
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Darby to
strengthen during the next couple of days or so. Deep-layer shear is
expected to remain weak (less than 10 kt) as the small storm moves
over SSTs of 28-28.5 degrees Celsius within a moist mid-level
environment. If the inner-core structure of Darby improves
overnight, there is some potential for significant intensification.
In fact, the latest ECMWF SHIPS-RII guidance shows a 41 percent
chance of Darby strengthening by 55 kt during the next 48 h. The
official NHC intensity forecast still lies on the higher end of the
guidance envelope through early next week, close to the SHIPS
guidance and just slightly above the HFIP corrected consensus
approach (HCCA). By 72 h, the storm is forecast to reach cooler
waters and encounter a drier environment, which should induce
weakening that continues through the remainder of the period.

Darby continues to move quickly westward, or 280/15 kt. A deep-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to
steer Darby quickly westward over the next couple of days. Once
Darby reaches a weakness in the ridge by the middle of next week,
the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit and turn toward the
west-northwest on days 4-5. The official NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one, and it remains close to the TVCE and
HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.3N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.4N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 14.4N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 14.5N 125.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 15.3N 129.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.0N 139.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Flynn
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Re: EPSC: DARBY - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 5:06 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 116.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 116.0 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days or so, and
Darby is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has changed little in structure tonight. Microwave imagery
from SSMIS at 0147 UTC revealed a small inner core with a primary
band to the south of the center. The storm continues to generate a
well-defined upper-level outflow and some bursts of convection with
-80 degrees C or colder cloud top temperatures near the center on
geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity remains at 40
kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from SAB and TAFB.

Convective organization appears to have stalled in the past few
hours, possibly due to some drier mid-level humidities, and as a
result there has been no apparent change in intensity. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening in the next couple days and model guidance indicates
Darby will intensify, possibly into a hurricane. The system is
predicted be over cooler ocean surface temperatures and entering a
drier environment within 72 hours which should lead to weakening for
the remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC intensity
prediction is above most of model guidance for the first couple of
days and then is blended into the consensus for the rest of
forecast.

The tropical storm is moving westward at 13 kt and it is being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. This motion is expected
to continue at a slightly slower forward speed for the next couple
of days. In 3-4 days, Darby should reach a weakness in the ridge
and turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The official NHC track
forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, and it remains close
to the TVCE and HCCA model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.3N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 14.6N 125.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 14.9N 128.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 130.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.1N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPSC: DARBY - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:33 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 117.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 117.6 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days. A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Darby is forecast to become a
hurricane tonight or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has become better organized this morning. A 0916 UTC AMSR2 and
more recent 1216 UTC SSMIS microwave pass have revealed increased
banding over the eastern semicircle of the storm and an improved
low-level inner core structure. Early-light visible satellite
imagery also shows an increase in banding and the development of a
small CDO feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have
responded accordingly and are now up to 45 and 55 kt from TAFB and
SAB, respectively. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised
to 50 kt for this advisory.

There still appears to be some entrainment of drier mid-level air
over the northwestern portion of the circulation, but with low
environmental shear and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) ahead,
Darby should be able to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening
during the first day or so, primarily due to the higher initial
intensity. The new forecast calls for Darby to become a hurricane
in about 24 hours, and then peak in intensity in a couple of days.
After that time, gradually decreasing SSTs and a more stable
environment should lead to steady weakening during the remainder of
the forecast period. The NHC wind speed forecast is near the high
end of the guidance during the first 24-48 hours and is in best
agreement with the European-based SHIPS model. Thereafter, it is
close to the various consensus aids.

Darby continues to move westward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should
continue on a westward motion to the south of a mid-level ridge
extending westward from the northern portion of Baja California. In
a few days the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken
which should cause Darby to turn west-northwestward. The track
guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, though the UKMET
model depicts a much weaker Darby and shows a faster westward
motion. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which is a little
slower than the consensus aids due to the contribution from the
much faster UKMET model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 14.3N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.3N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.3N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 14.4N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 14.8N 127.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 15.2N 129.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 15.8N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 17.3N 136.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.2N 141.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Darby Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...SMALL DARBY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 119.1W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Darby was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 119.1 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual
west-northwestward turn by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Darby
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Monday.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward only 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby is a small but fairly well-organized tropical cyclone.
1-minute GOES-17 imagery has been quite helpful to diagnose the
system's structure, which consists of a handful of curved bands
around the periphery of the circulation, with pulsing convection
near the center that has, at times, wrapped nearly all the way
around. Earlier microwave imagery showed hints that Darby was
starting to mix-out some of the dry-air entrainment that was noticed
this morning, with even a hint of a mid-level eye becoming evident
on an SSMIS 91-GHz microwave channel at 1421 UTC. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus CI 3.5/55-kt,
which is the basis for Darby's current intensity this advisory.

Over the next 36-48 hours, the biggest question related to Darby's
future intensity is just how effective the tropical cyclone will be
at preventing additional dry-air intrusions into its inner core.
Because the system has a very small core, it could be prone to rapid
intensity changes, both up and down, even due to seemingly small
fluctuations to its larger-scale environment. While SHIPS guidance
indicates that the deep-layer 200-850 mb shear should remain under
10 kt for the next 48 hours, the direction of the shear vector is
from the north, where there is drier mid-level air. In addition,
there is some sneaky higher northerly mid-level shear that may have
played a role in dry air disrupting the convective structure of
Darby last night and this morning. In any event, assuming the TC is
able to close off its tiny inner core, at least steady
intensification is still anticipated in the short-term. The latest
NHC intensity forecast still peaks Darby as an upper-end Category 1
hurricane by 48 hours, which is on the high end of the guidance, but
closest to the latest SHIPS forecast. Afterwards, northwesterly
shear increases, helping to import even drier mid-level air, and
sea-surface temperatures decrease below 26 C, which will likely lead
to rapid weakening of the small system towards the end of the
forecast period. The latest forecast now indicates Darby becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in 120 hours, not long after it crosses
the 140-degree longitude.

Darby remains on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt. The cyclone
continues to be steered westward by a prominent mid-level ridge to
its north. By 36 hours though, Darby will begin to approach a
weakness in this mid-level ridge, which should allow the system to
begin gaining latitude. While the track guidance continues to
exhibit relatively low across-track spread, there is substantially
more along-track spread between the various deterministic members.
Notably, the UKMET continues to be on the fast-leftward end of the
guidance envelope, which does not seem realistic since Darby is more
vertically deep than that model currently depicts. The latest track
forecast continues to place more emphasis on the slower and stronger
guidance, notably the GFS and ECMWF forecasts, which results in the
track forecast being a little slower and a bit further north than
the reliable guidance aids HCCA and TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.5N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 15.0N 128.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 15.5N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 16.2N 133.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 120.6W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.6 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, followed by some weakening by midweek.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. Deep
convection near and over its center has been persistent during the
past several hours, and a series of passive microwave images
revealed a well-defined inner core structure has developed
underneath Darby's small central dense overcast. Although the
subjective Dvorak classifications at 00 UTC were a consensus T3.5/55
kt, the objective ADT and SATCON estimates have recently climbed as
high as 72 kt based on the improved microwave structure of the
storm. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt
for this advisory, which makes Darby the fourth eastern North
Pacific hurricane this season.

The near-term environmental conditions remain favorable for
additional strengthening, as Darby is forecast to move over warm
SSTs within a low deep-layer shear environment. Although the small
hurricane could be susceptible to additional bouts of dry-air
entrainment, the improved inner-core structure of Darby should allow
the cyclone to continue intensifying over the next day or so before
it reaches cooler waters by Wednesday. The official intensity
forecast is slightly above the previous one and remains on the high
end of the guidance, slightly higher than the HFIP corrected
consensus approach (HCCA) and the SHIPS guidance. By midweek, Darby
is forecast to encounter drier mid-level air as it crosses the 26 C
isotherm, which should induce a weakening trend. Given its small
size, Darby should weaken quickly later in the period, and the day 5
forecast shows Darby as a 30-kt post-tropical remnant low.

Darby's motion is just a bit north of due west at 275/15 kt. Darby
will continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days,
to the south of an established mid-level ridge that extends across
the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone reaches the southwestern
extent of the ridge, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward later
this week. There is still some along-track spread noted among the
various global models, with the UKMET much faster and farther south
than the GFS and ECMWF solutions at later forecast times. The
official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one,
and is generally just a bit north of the consensus aids and closer
to the GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 14.6N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 14.9N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 15.4N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 16.0N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 16.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:34 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 121.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 121.9 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, followed by some weakening by midweek.

Darby is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

Darby continues to improve in organization tonight and appears to
be on a strengthening trend. Satellite imagery shows that the
cloud pattern has become more symmetric and the small hurricane may
be trying to form a clear eye. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS increased to 65
kt, 77 kt, and 80 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is
increased to 75 kt representing a blend of these estimates.

Low vertical wind shear and warm ocean waters make up the conducive
environmental conditions for Darby to strengthen. The system is
expect to remain in an environment supportive of further
intensification for the next day or so. Statistical guidance, such
as DTOPS, show a higher potential for rapid intensification in the
next 24 hours. Thereafter, the hurricane should reach cooler waters
and begin to weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous advisory in the short-term forecast due to the
recent strengthening. It remains above most of the model guidance
early in the forecast period, and close to the consensus after a
couple of days.

The hurricane is moving west at 14 kt. Darby is being steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and should continue westward for the
next couple of days. Then, the system should turn
west-northwestward as it moves around the southwestern periphery of
the ridge. The official track forecast has been shifted south of
the previous NHC prediction but not as far south as the model
consensus. It is also slower than the consensus aids, favoring the
GFS and ECMWF over the UKMET which seems to be unrealistically fast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 14.5N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:36 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Special Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1200 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 122.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM HST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 122.2 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west-northwest later this week.

Recent satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is possible, and Darby could become a major
hurricane later today. A weakening trend is expected to begin
later this week.

Darby is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




Hurricane Darby Special Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1200 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

This is a special advisory to update the intensity of the hurricane
and the shorter-term intensity forecast. Recent enhanced infrared
satellite images indicate that Darby's eye has become significantly
better defined and embedded within cloud tops colder than -70C.
Objective Dvorak T-numbers now support an intensity of 90 kt. Based
on this rapid strengthening, the official intensity forecast has
been adjusted upward through the 24-hour period, and now shows Darby
becoming a major hurricane. This is above the model guidance but
follows the current intensification trend.

No changes have been made to the NHC intensity forecast after 24
hours, or to the official track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1000Z 14.5N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 14.8N 126.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 131.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 15.8N 134.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 16.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 17.4N 142.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.8N 147.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:27 am

Hurricane Darby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
0315 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Darby has continued to
rapidly strengthen overnight. Darby is now a category 3 hurricane
with estimated maximum sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). This
new intensity will be incorporated into the next full advisory
before 5 AM HST.


SUMMARY OF 315 AM HST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITH 125 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 123.4W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Major Hurricane Darby was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 123.4 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the
west-northwest beginning by Tuesday.

Darby has been rapidly intensifying this morning and maximum
sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts.
Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast today, and Darby is
forecast to become a category 4 hurricane. Weakening is then
forecast to begin by midweek.

Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

What a difference 24 hours makes! Darby has been rapidly
intensifying for the last 12-18 hours, with the eye continuing to
clear out on GOES-17 infrared satellite imagery surrounded by a
thick ring of cold -65 to -75C cloud top temperatures. It is clear
that the tropical cyclone was able to mix out the remaining dry air
near its center last night and the last several microwave passes
from GMI at 0732 UTC and AMSR2 at 0959 UTC have an impressive
presentation with a thick ring of eyewall convection on the 89-GHz
channel. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are
constrained due to Dvorak rules, but their data-T numbers were both
T5.5/102 kt. The most recent CI number from the UW-CIMSS objective
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) was at T6.0/115 kt. Favoring the
higher ADT estimate more, the current intensity is set to 110 kt,
though this could be conservative.

There are no obvious signs currently that would prevent Darby from
intensifying further. There are few indications that an eyewall
replacement cycle is imminent from the earlier microwave imagery and
SHIPS guidance indicates the storm remains in a very low shear
(near 5 kt) environment and over sufficently warm sea-surface
temperatures (27-28 C). Thus, rapid intensification is forecast to
continue over the next 12 h, and the NHC foreast intensity peaks
Darby at 120 kt, which matches the latest ECMWF- and GFS-based
SHIPS which have correctly been on the high side of the guidance
envelope. After 36 hours, Darby is expected to move into sub 26C
SSTs, and westerly shear is forecast to increase between 48-72
hours. Thus, the small vortex of Darby could weaken rapidly after 36
hours, with the latest intensity forecast still making the system a
post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period.

Darby is continuing westward along at the same general speed and
heading at 270/13 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge
centered to its north. The hurricane is expected to approach a
slight weakness in the ridge after 24 hours, allowing the cyclone to
gradually shift to a more west-northwestward track between 36-72
hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, as Darby becomes
shallow vortex, its track will likely bend back westward as the
low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The latest track
forecast is not all that different from the previous one, choosing
to remain close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts (GEFX)
which remains just a bit north of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE,
which are influenced by the further south tracks of the weaker
HWRF/HMON/UKMET guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 14.7N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 14.8N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 15.4N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 15.9N 135.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 16.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 143.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY STILL SMALL BUT NOW A MIGHTY CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 125.0W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 125.0 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts, making Darby is a powerful category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is expected to
peak in intensity in the next day or so and then begin a weakening
trend by midweek.

Darby remains a small system, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby's satellite presentation continues to be very impressive, and
has improved further since this morning. While convective cloud tops
associated with the eyewall convection have not cooled much more,
hovering between -65 to -75 C, the eye temperature has warmed
further, with the warmest pixel fluctuating between +18-20C. The
presentation on visible images is similarly spectacular, with a few
mesovorticies seen rotating around in the eye exhibiting a classic
stadium effect, and the GOES-GLM occasionally showing some inner
core flashes. The latest UW-CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate has
stabilized somewhat at T6.1/117 kt despite the warming eye
temperature. However, very small tropical cyclones like Darby are
often underestimated using objective Dvorak guidance, as was seen
during similarly small systems, like Dorian in 2019 when it near the
Bahamas. I also suspect the eyewall cloud tops have warmed a tad due
to diurnal fluctuations and could cool once again during the typical
nighttime max. The current intensity this advisory will be set at
120 kt, indicating a remarkable intensification rate of 65 kt in the
past 24 hours.

A little bit of additional intensification is possible in the short
term and the latest intensity forecast now peaks Darby as a 125-kt
hurricane in 12 hours, very close to the GFS-SHIPS guidance. It is
notable that this was also the peak intensity that a similarly-small
Hurricane Felicia also reached in this same general vicinity last
July. While shear is expected to remain very low through 48 hours,
sea-surface temperatures do start to decrease and drop below 26C in
36 hours, which should begin a weakening trend by Wednesday.
Vertical wind shear then begins to increase more after 48 hours,
which will likely induce more rapid weakening of the small cyclone.
Both the GFS- and ECMWF model simulated IR-brightness temperature
shows deep convection collapsing on Friday, and the latest forecast
now makes Darby post-tropical by 96 hours.

Darby is still moving westward at 275/13 kt. The track philosophy
has not changed this cycle, as a mid-level ridge is steering the
hurricane generally westward. A slight weakness in the ridge after
24 hours should allow Darby to take a more west-northwestward track
in the 36-72 hour forecast period. As Darby becomes more shallow at
the end of the forecast period, its track is forecast to bend back
westward as the low-level trade wind flow becomes dominant. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, still
favoring a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts, but ends up near
the TVCE consensus aid towards the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 14.9N 129.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 15.1N 132.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 17.4N 145.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/1800Z 17.3N 151.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2022 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 126.6W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 126.6 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue tonight with a gradual turn to the west-northwest beginning
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is likely to change little in strength
during the next day or so, but rapid weakening is expected after
that.

Darby is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby has been generally steady in strength during the past several
hours and remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. It maintains a classic major hurricane
structure with well-defined outflow in all quadrants, a symmetric
cloud pattern, and a distinct small eye (less than 10 n mi in
diameter). Satellite images indicate that the eye has become even
more defined over the past few hours, but deep convection has been
weakening a little to the west of the eye. All of the satellite
intensity estimates have plateaued and suggest that Darby still has
peak winds of around 120 kt. Although the hurricane is very
powerful, it is quite compact with tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to only extend 50 n mi from the center.

The hurricane has been moving westward, or 275 degrees, at 15 kt. A
general west to west-northwest motion at a slightly slower pace is
expected during the next few days as Darby continues to move on the
south or southwest side of a mid-level ridge, taking the system into
the central Pacific basin in 60-72 hours. After that time, the
weakening system is expected to be steered due westward by the
low-level flow. There are some speed differences in the models, but
they generally show the same theme. This forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and roughly between the GFS and
ECMWF models.

Darby is likely near its peak intensity. The major hurricane will
be moving over progressively cooler waters and crossing the 26
degree C isotherm in about 24 hours. In addition, Darby will be
moving into a drier airmass, which should accelerate the weakening
trend. In a few days when Darby is over the central Pacific, a mid-
to upper-level trough should induce strong westerly shear and cause
Darby to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close
to the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.0N 128.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.1N 131.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 15.5N 133.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.1N 136.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 16.7N 139.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.3N 141.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.6N 147.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0000Z 17.4N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:36 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

...DARBY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 128.1W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 128.1 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest
beginning in about a day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is likely to change little in strength
during the next day or so, but rapid weakening is expected after
that.

Darby is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022

Darby has remained an impressive, compact hurricane with an
annular structure through the night. After a brief period of
eyewall warming, the cold cloud tops surrounding the clear eye now
range between -60 and -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is
held at 120 kt, which is above the subjective Dvorak estimates of
102 kt and 115 kt based on the current presentation in satellite
imagery.

The hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively conducive
environment for the next 12 hours or so. Beyond that time frame,
Darby should encounter cooler waters and increasingly dry air
which will likely begin a general weakening trend. The system is
expected to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical when the
vertical wind shear increases significantly in a few days. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory
and is slightly above the model consensus aids in the near-term
forecast.

Darby is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north should continue to steer the hurricane westward to
west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. As the system
weakens to a more shallow circulation, it is expected to turn
westward following the low-level trade winds. The NHC track
forecast is slightly south of the previous prediction but is still
north of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 9:45 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE..


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 129.7W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 129.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today with a gradual west-northwestward turn beginning
tonight into tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
over the next 24 hours followed by more rapid weakening later this
week.

Darby remains a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only
extending outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

While Darby remains an impressively compact hurricane, there has
been a bit of erosion in the inner-core convective structure this
morning. The eye in particular has become less distinct and has
cooled relative to yesterday afternoon, though the eyewall
convection remains strong and quite circular. While an AMSR2
microwave pass at 1042 UTC still showed a closed eyewall, the
convection on the northwestern side has eroded some compared to
yesterday. Darby remains a very small tropical cyclone, with
overnight scatterometer wind data indicating tropical-storm-force
winds extend out to 40 n mi to the northeast of the center. While
the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak classifications were a consensus CI
6.0/115 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON data is quite a bit lower.
The initial intensity on this advisory is set at 110 kt, blending
the guidance, but favoring the somewhat higher subjective Dvorak
estimates.

While the current vertical wind shear (VWS) over Darby remains very
low, sea-surface temperatures underneath the hurricane are gradually
decreasing, now currently just under 27 C. It seems likely that
Darby is now post-peak intensity and should begin to gradually
weaken in the short-term under the less favorable thermodynamic
environment. After 24 hours, a combination of an increasingly stable
and dry airmass, plus an increase in southwesterly VWS from a broad
upper-level trough to the northwest of Darby, is expected to lead to
a more rapid weakening trend later this week. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is still on the high side of the guidance
envelope early on, but then shows a faster rate of weakening as the
small cyclone encounters a more hostile environment. Darby is still
expected to become post-tropical by 96 hours as deep convection is
completely removed from the center and dissipates as suggested by
the GFS and ECMWF models at that period.

Darby continues to move on a due westward heading at 270/14 kt.
There is not much new to report with the track philosophy, as a
mid-level ridge currently north of Darby will be eroded some by the
aforementioned upper-level trough. This should result in a bit more
west-northwest bend in Darby's track between 24-60 hours. After that
period, Darby is expected to become an increasingly shallow vortex,
and its track should turn back westward following the trade-wind
flow around a large low-level subtropical ridge poleward of
Hawaii. The latest track forecast is little changed from the prior
advisory, and remains close to the tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 129.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.2N 134.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.4N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 16.9N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.2N 144.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 17.1N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 131.2W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 131.2 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
forecast, but Darby is expected to remain a hurricane through early
Thursday and a tropical storm through early Friday.

Darby remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby remains a small and formidable hurricane, although there are
some subtle changes in its convective pattern. The hurricane looks
a little more asymmetric in infrared imagery, favoring the western
side, and a black ring on the Dvorak enhancement curve (colder than
-63 degrees Celsius) has struggled to stay wrapped around the eye.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers have gradually fallen
closer to objective numbers, and the range of estimated intensities
is now from 90-102 kt. Darby's current intensity is therefore
lowered to 100 kt.

Darby lost a little bit of latitude since overnight, but the
12-hour average motion remains westward, or 270/15 kt. The
hurricane should maintain a westward motion for another 24 hours
but then take on a slightly slower west-northwestward track from
36-48 hours as it moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge.
After 48 hours, a filling of the break and a weaker Darby should
cause the motion to turn back toward the west, continuing through
dissipation in 4-5 days. There is very little spread among the
track guidance, and the only noteworthy point is that the ECMWF and
HCCA aid are faster than much of the other models. The updated
NHC forecast is generally on top of the previous forecast but just
a little faster during the first 36 hours, hedging toward the ECMWF
and HCCA solutions.

Vertical shear over Darby is expected to be 10 kt or less during
the next 36 hours, but marginal sea surface temperatures of 26
degrees Celsius are likely to foster additional gradual weakening
during that time. Southwesterly to westerly shear then increases
in earnest to 20-30 kt on days 2 and 3, which should induce more
significant weakening. The intensity guidance is in very good
agreement, and Darby could weaken below hurricane strength soon
after 48 hours, become post-tropical by day 4, and degenerate into a
trough by day 5. Some of the global model guidance suggest that the
post-tropical phase and dissipation could occur even sooner than
indicated in the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 14.6N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 14.8N 133.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 16.0N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.6N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 146.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.0N 152.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 12, 2022 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 132.7W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1520 MI...2445 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 132.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward or west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Darby is
expected to remain a hurricane through Wednesday night and a
tropical storm through Thursday night. The system is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone by late Friday.

Darby remains a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby remains an impressive hurricane in conventional satellite
imagery, however the eye is not as defined as it was earlier today.
As noted in the previous discussion, the hurricane is more
asymmetric with the cloud shield favoring the western semicircle.
A 0043 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass revealed some erosion of the
convection over the northern semicircle which is suggestive of some
dry air entrainment over that portion of the circulation. A blend
of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers yields an
initial intensity of 95 kt. This is also supported by the latest
UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates which are 95 and 98 kt,
respectively.

Although the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low during
the next 24 hours, Darby will be moving over marginal sea surface
temperatures, which is expected to cause gradual weakening. After
that time, a sharp increase in vertical wind shear and SSTs of 24
to 25 degrees Celsius should result in continued weakening.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Darby
will cease to produce deep convection in a few days and the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a post-tropical cyclone in
about 72 hours. The remnant low is expected to degenerate into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. There
is not much spread in the intensity model guidance and the official
forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS, ICON, and HCCA
intensity aids.

Darby remains on a steady westward motion at about 15 kt. A
slightly slower westward to west-northwestward track is expected by
Wednesday as the tropical cyclone nears a break in the subtropical
ridge. After 48 hours, a weaker Darby should turn back westward as
the low-level trade wind flow becomes the more dominant steering
layer. Although there is very little cross-track spread in the
dynamical model guidance, the envelope has shifted slightly
southward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. The new NHC track forecast is near the GFEX and TVCE
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 14.6N 132.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 14.9N 134.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.1N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.6N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 16.8N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 16.9N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 17/0000Z 16.8N 154.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 3:57 am

WTPZ35 KNHC 130837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

...DARBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 133.9W
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 133.9 West. Darby is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the system
is forecast to become a remnant low by late Friday.

Darby is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 12 2022

Darby has been gradually weakening over ocean surface temperatures
near or just below 26 degrees Celsius. Satellite imagery show the
eye has filled in and the extent of the cold cloud tops has shrunk.
A scatterometer pass at 0545 UTC over the inner core revealed a
very small storm. Dvorak CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB estimated
the intensity of Darby at 90 kt. However, objective satellite
intensity estimates ranged between 82 to 87 kt from UW/CIMSS ADT and
SATCON and have been decreasing. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 85 kt to represent a blend of all of these estimates and
the current trend.

The less conducive environmental conditions appear to be taking a
toll on this tiny storm. Based on satellite imagery, Darby is
completely surrounded by a dry mid-level air mass. The hurricane
is also expected to remain over marginal sea surface temperatures
and these two factors should continue to gradually weaken Darby
over the next day or so. The vertical wind shear is predicted to
increase quickly in a couple of days which should rapidly weaken
Darby into a remnant low in about 72 hours. The official intensity
forecast is shifted slightly lower than the previous advisory and
below much of the consensus guidance. Given the small size of
this cyclone, it would not be surprising if Darby weakened even
faster than indicated here.

Darby continues to move westward at about 14 kt while it is
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. Over the next 24
hours, the system is expected to reach a slight weakness in the
ridge and turn west-northwestward temporarily. While Darby
weakens further it will likely turn west once again and follow the
low-level steering flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast
is slightly south of the previous prediction beyond 36 hours and
close to the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 14.7N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 141.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.5N 143.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 16.6N 146.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.5N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 16.3N 156.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:38 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...EYE OF DARBY MAKES A SURPRISE REAPPEARANCE...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 135.4W
ABOUT 1750 MI...2815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Darby was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 135.4 West. Darby is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a similar forward speed is expected today, followed by at
turn toward the west on Thursday. Darby is forecast to continue
westward after that at a slightly slower forward speed through the
end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
Darby is forecast to resume weakening by tonight. The system will
likely become a tropical storm on Thursday and become post-tropical
on Friday.

Darby is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
500 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Surprise! The eye of Darby reappeared this morning in IR imagery
after a hiatus overnight. Recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates, and
the U-W CIMSS ADT all support an intensity of 90 kt, so Darby's
intensity was adjusted to that value. It should be stressed that
this appears to be a short-term fluctuation and has not changed the
overall thinking behind the intensity forecast, which calls for
Darby to generally weaken over the next few days.

Darby could maintain its intensity with small fluctuations today,
but all available intensity guidance indicates it will resume
weakening by tonight or tomorrow (if not sooner). This is likely
because it is moving through a marginal environment that includes
SSTs dropping below 26 deg C and 700-500 mb relative humidities
between 55-60 percent based on GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
diagnostics. After 24 h, an increase in wind shear should cause
Darby to weaken at a faster rate, particularly given the small size
of the hurricane. Simulated satellite output from the GFS, ECMWF and
HWRF models indicate Darby will lose all deep convection and become
post-tropical in about 60 h. The cyclone should subsequently
dissipate about a day after that. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast and is near or just below the
intensity consensus (IVCN) at all forecast hours.

Virtually no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Darby
appears to have started an expected brief west-northwestward jog,
with an initial motion just north of due west at 14 kt. Darby should
complete that turn and move west-northwestward today, and then turn
westward tomorrow as it weakens through the end of the week. The
official track forecast is based heavily on the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.0N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.4N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.4N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.6N 145.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 16.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 3:44 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...DARBY RE-INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 136.7W
ABOUT 1820 MI...2930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 136.7 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through
tonight followed by a turn toward the west on Thursday or Thursday
night. Darby is forecast to then continue westward through the end
of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are
possible through tonight. Darby is forecast to resume weakening by
late tonight or on Thursday. The system will likely become a
tropical storm by Thursday night and become post-tropical by Friday
night.

Recent satellite wind data shows that Darby remains a small
hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles
(20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

The eye of Darby has become more distinct since the last advisory,
suggesting that a little more intensification has occurred, In
response, the intensity estimates from various subjective and
objective satellite techniques have nudged upward and are currently
in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is set at a possibly
conservative 95 kt.

While Darby is currently in an environment of light shear and
decent moisture, the center is over sea surface temperatures of
25-26C. This is expected to cause a slow weakening during the next
24 h. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter
moderate to strong westerly shear and move into a very dry air mass,
and this combination is likely to cause rapid weakening. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS model indicates that the associated
convection should dissipate around the 48 h point, with Darby
becoming a post-tropical low by 60-72 h. The new intensity
forecast is adjusted upward through the first 24 h, then shows a
somewhat faster weakening than the previous forecast. The global
models are in good agreement that the remnants of Darby will weaken
to a trough by 96 h, so the forecast continues to call for
dissipation by that time.

A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Darby should
continue to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for the
next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. There are
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast track, which
lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 136.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:50 pm

The NWS CPHC are from now on doing the advisories.

TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Darby Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

...DARBY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN...
...HURRICANE STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 138.5W
ABOUT 1920 MI...3090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Darby was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 138.5 West. Darby is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to
the west afterward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Darby is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Darby is forecast to weaken steadily and
become a tropical storm in 24 to 36 hours, and a
post-tropical/remnant low in 72 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama/M Ballard





Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
500 PM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

Darby continues to be a healthy tropical cyclone. In fact, the
subjective intensity estimates from PHFO, TAFB, and SAB, and the
objective ADT and CIMSS SATCON all came it at 102 kt. Based on this
consensus, the initial intensity has been increased to 100 kt,
making Darby a major hurricane once again. Satellite images from
the past couple of hours indicated that the upper level outflow has
started to become a bit asymmetric, which may indicate that Darby is
starting to be affected by the large upper level trough to the
northwest.

The initial motion is 285/14 kt. The cyclone is being
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system.
This ridge is expected to maintain a general west-northwest motion
over the next 24 hours or so. As Darby becomes impacted by vertical
shear, it will weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. As it becomes
an increasingly shallow system, it should turn toward the west. The
trusted dynamical models are in agreement with this scenario and are
in a tightly clustered guidance envelope. The forecast track has
also been quite consistent for several cycles, and current forecast
follows the previous package with a slight northward shift based on
recent movement trends.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 25-26C around Darby and
should remain marginal along the forecast track. The main question
is when the forecasted vertical shear will begin to significantly
affect the system. The combination of this vertical shear, marginal
SSTs, and drier low- to mid-tropospheric air should result in a
rapid weakening of Darby, especially considering the small size of
the cyclone. Simulated IR data from the GFS and HWRF indicated that
Darby could maintain an eye tonight, but it would finally collapse
some time Thursday, with the low level circulation becoming
exposed on Friday. The main intensity aids are projecting a rapid
weakening over the next 3 days despite the recent intensification.
The forecast for this advisory is consistent with the previous
forecast and has Darby resuming its weakening trend soon, becoming
a post-tropical/remnant low in 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.9N 138.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.8N 142.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.0N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.0N 148.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.8N 151.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 17/0000Z 16.7N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama/M Ballard
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