EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#121 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:15 am

tolakram wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
TXPZ27 KNES 171211
TCSENP

A. 06E (ESTELLE)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 15.5N

D. 106.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=3.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


JTWC tier Dvoraking.


Can you explain your disagreement rather than just dropping a one line insult?


In that particular fix, SAB got the banding wrong. Was around 140% rather than 100%.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#122 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:03 am

Time is running out to intensify.

EP, 06, 2022071812, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1105W, 70, 986, HU
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#123 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:50 am

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#124 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:57 am

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#125 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:51 am

Some shear really kept Estelle at bay. It's kind of hard to trust these big sprawling systems compared to the smaller ones.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#126 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:54 pm

Raw T down to 3.2, do not think this is an 80mph Hurricane

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#127 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:55 pm

Yep, it looks like 55 knots.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#128 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:46 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#129 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:43 pm

No way this has maintained an intensity of 70 kt for nearly a day now. It probably fell below hurricane status last night and is at most 50-55 kt.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#130 Postby skyline385 » Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:38 pm

...ESTELLE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


:?: :?: :?:
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#131 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:08 pm

Yeah pretty big underperformance here. Was really looking like it could go places a couple days ago but in the end the shear and dry air won out. Maybe the next AOI can do something...
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#132 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:19 pm

Still a hurricane.

EP, 06, 2022071900, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1130W, 65, 988, HU
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#133 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:Some shear really kept Estelle at bay. It's kind of hard to trust these big sprawling systems compared to the smaller ones.

Yeah in +ENSO this would've been some serious eye candy.

In La Nina, you want medium to small sized systems moving WNW with occasional NW. Best chance for MH status that way. Preferably away from Mexico.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#134 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:45 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#135 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:39 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Some shear really kept Estelle at bay. It's kind of hard to trust these big sprawling systems compared to the smaller ones.

Yeah in +ENSO this would've been some serious eye candy.

In La Nina, you want medium to small sized systems moving WNW with occasional NW. Best chance for MH status that way. Preferably away from Mexico.

That's a good point, Darby basically fulfilled all those aforementioned requirements you brought up and we got a great storm out of it. Estelle on the other hand couldn't be any more different lol. The large size definitely worked against it, and the proximity to the Mexican Coast put it under the influence of the semipermanent ULAC in the eastern part of the basin that is a staple of La Niña years, which provided strong easterly flow that hindered any significant intensification.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#136 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:09 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#137 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:49 pm

Definitely not yet a low or mid-grade TS. Vorticity signature remains impressive and above this caliber. Obviously on a weakening trend now, but large systems like this take a while to spin down. Surface circulation is still quite vigorous, even despite the shear.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#138 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:09 am

Has to be in the running for the uglies storm ever :lol:

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#139 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:21 am

skyline385 wrote:Has to be in the running for the uglies storm ever :lol:

https://media.giphy.com/media/mzhyZTJRChn0YkffK4/giphy.gif


It's beautiful compared to Barry '19! :lol:
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane

#140 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:37 am

What makes tropical systems interesting, sometimes systems will battle thru shear to defy forecasts
and strengthen and others like Estelle will weaken and what appears to be a pretty good environment.
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