EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby zzh » Wed Jul 13, 2022 1:33 pm

EP, 96, 2022071318, , BEST, 0, 105N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009, SPAWNINVEST, ep792022 to ep962022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep962022.dat

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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:03 pm

18z GFS has backed off of it intensity wise compared to 12z but with the convective organization that the GFS didn't do a great job of initialization it'll probably form a little sooner than that model shows.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:04 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962022 07/13/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 46 58 74 82 93 94 96 90 84 80 78
V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 46 58 74 82 93 94 96 90 84 80 78
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 36 44 53 61 66 65 61 58 56
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 15 14 8 10 13 7 7 11 13 19 27 19 11 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 5 4 0 0 -2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 62 57 64 71 70 63 67 69 80 130 358 10 27 41 41 53 18
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.7 27.4 26.8 26.0 25.8 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 155 155 158 158 159 154 153 141 135 126 123 120
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 2 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 74 77 78 81 81 81 81 79 75 71 66 65 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 12 13 18 20 26 26 30 30 31 33 34
850 MB ENV VOR 64 60 48 40 39 21 21 22 22 18 32 43 55 64 101 109 108
200 MB DIV 20 26 50 47 33 72 81 148 174 180 114 106 68 67 51 17 62
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -5 -6 -12 -10 -8 -10 -5
LAND (KM) 502 552 556 536 513 471 417 379 312 269 226 269 468 606 910 1229 1445
LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.4 96.1 96.7 97.3 98.6 99.9 101.1 102.1 103.1 104.5 106.9 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 11 15 18 19 18 13 8
HEAT CONTENT 16 17 20 24 31 27 20 20 20 27 17 13 3 2 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. 45. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 14. 17. 24. 23. 26. 23. 22. 21. 20.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 26. 38. 54. 62. 73. 74. 76. 70. 64. 60. 58.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 94.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/13/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.0% 28.7% 9.0% 4.9% 1.6% 14.7% 39.3% 49.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7%
Consensus: 1.0% 10.3% 3.1% 1.6% 0.5% 5.3% 13.8% 17.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/13/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:13 pm

This one's got some potential of it can get going pretty quickly. Has some decent convection already
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:19 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:31 pm

5 PM PDT TWO.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico on Friday or
Saturday. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-
northwestward at about 10 mph while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2022 7:58 pm

EP, 96, 2022071400, , BEST, 0, 105N, 955W, 25, 1010, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:59 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 13, 2022 10:55 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 62 66 69 69 67 65 61 57 54
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 54 62 66 69 69 67 65 61 57 54
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 39 42 46 49 50 48 44 41 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 20 20 17 13 13 14 15 9 7 10 16 16 7 5 8 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 0 1 -1 2 3 0 0
SHEAR DIR 68 61 65 73 80 43 54 62 72 31 8 351 357 1 74 91 80
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.5 27.4 27.2 26.0 25.8 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 155 156 157 157 157 153 151 140 138 124 120 117
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 6 4 4 2 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 75 76 79 80 80 82 82 82 78 79 75 69 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 61 50 41 34 25 12 17 10 13 13 31 34 50 48 65 70 80
200 MB DIV 23 50 53 49 56 64 103 155 182 188 146 93 118 84 48 16 18
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -11 -20 -18 -18 -1 1
LAND (KM) 568 567 551 540 527 501 468 437 391 361 315 322 475 513 713 877 975
LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.9 17.2 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.4 97.0 97.6 98.1 99.4 100.6 101.5 102.3 103.4 104.9 107.0 109.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 8 6 5 6 8 11 13 15 16 13 7 3
HEAT CONTENT 17 21 24 27 28 26 25 22 21 23 14 11 3 3 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 41. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 21. 29. 37. 41. 44. 44. 42. 40. 36. 32. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 95.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.13 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 0.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.8% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 13.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 8.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4.3% 24.8% 35.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3%
Consensus: 0.2% 8.3% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 5.9% 12.9% 12.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:17 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.5N 96.6W, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTH OF PUNTA ESCONDIDAT, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH EAST AND AHEAD OF THE LLC TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) WITH EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND 29-30 DEGREES CENTIGRADE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:39 am

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by late Friday
or Saturday. The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-
northwestward at about 10 mph while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:51 am

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico have increased in coverage since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for continued development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico by late Friday or Saturday. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:29 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:43 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico continue to show increased signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the
coast of southern Mexico by late Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph while remaining offshore of the southern and
southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#15 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:58 pm

I think Estelle/96E will end up as another struggling, high-end TS like Cristina and Celia (until the latter gets upgraded in post-season). SHIPS has been forecasting some moderate shear persisting while the system is over the best SSTs, and the HWRF has kept on showing a large core taking shape. These two factors could significantly limit how much Estelle is able to intensify before shear picks up even more and SSTs drop like a rock.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:55 pm

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12z ECMWF comes in more aggressive.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:59 pm

EP, 96, 2022071418, , BEST, 0, 110N, 986W, 30, 1009, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:18 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962022 07/14/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 66 78 89 94 98 96 92 84 76 69 61
V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 46 55 66 78 89 94 98 96 92 84 76 69 61
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 46 53 62 71 79 84 81 72 61 51 43 37
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 13 15 13 15 7 4 9 15 20 15 12 5 4 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 0 4
SHEAR DIR 77 61 61 59 59 47 64 78 52 6 22 30 27 33 358 131 169
SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.2 24.7 24.2 24.1 23.6 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 158 160 160 161 156 153 150 150 143 127 111 105 103 95 92
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 73 74 78 78 81 84 83 79 79 76 67 64 62 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 13 16 19 22 25 28 30 32 31 30 28 24
850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 17 5 4 6 11 19 34 36 55 43 58 71 86 82 68
200 MB DIV 61 56 69 64 81 130 141 155 142 159 108 91 62 11 4 28 10
700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -7 -1 0 1
LAND (KM) 558 547 546 537 531 494 449 379 319 299 412 402 557 739 922 1048 1076
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.3 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.7 19.8 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.5 100.3 101.0 101.8 103.0 103.9 104.5 105.3 106.8 109.2 112.0 115.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 8 11 14 15 14 11 8 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 26 30 33 32 29 30 24 17 11 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. 30. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 22. 26. 27. 27. 23. 20. 16. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 25. 36. 48. 59. 64. 68. 66. 62. 54. 46. 39. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.0 98.6

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.27 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 21.5% 17.4% 15.9% 0.0% 17.7% 16.4% 37.9%
Logistic: 1.7% 15.0% 4.5% 2.4% 1.1% 6.3% 30.9% 24.0%
Bayesian: 0.3% 6.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 2.9% 5.5%
Consensus: 3.4% 14.2% 7.7% 6.2% 0.4% 8.8% 16.7% 22.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 8.0% 17.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 07/14/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:46 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, have
continued to become better organized today. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well offshore of the coast
of southern Mexico within the next day or so. The disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#20 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:15 pm

Pretty good agreement between the 18z GFS, HMON, and HWRF runs in terms of intensity. GFS and HMON get to 980mb while HWRF gets to 977mb.
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