EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

[skyline385]

Estelle has a very large circulation and banding like what the HWRF has been showing for days. With this large circulation and core, Estelle will probably struggle to intensify much like on the model.

It has a tight inner core. I don’t see much getting in the way of this thing. A large envelope can occur with smaller hurricanes. Wilma is an example of this. It had a large circulation but a tiny core.

Yea, a trademark of most Cat 4/5 hurricanes is the outer banding becoming decoupled with the CDO and rotating relatively slowly while the center goes nuts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1548459083685978112

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

A. 06E (ESTELLE)

B. 16/2330Z

C. 14.5N

D. 104.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT ARE 4.0
BASED ON RAPID 24-HOUR DEVELOPMENT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

[Yellow Evan]

If this wants to RI it better do so now. Shear is going to disrupt Estelle by 12z if the 18z GFS is correct.

[Kingarabian]

Would classify this as a hurricane now. That big burst of convection near the center pushed it over the top. Yet to see a hint of an IR/VIS eye though.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 202207170000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1430N, 10440W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AR, VI, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, Estelle looking really impressive - did not do the C

[cycloneye]

Hurricane.

EP, 06, 2022071700, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1045W, 65, 991, HU

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye is clearing out on ir. I thought this would happen. If it can keep it up, cat 5 might be obtainable.Hwrf might have had the right idea!

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is clearing out on ir. I thought this would happen. If it can keep it up, cat 5 might be obtainable.Hwrf might have had the right idea!

I'll be shocked if this becomes a Cat 5 but I think we could see a 3 or even a 4 out of this. It seems like the shear isn't much of a problem right now, but we'll see how long that lasts.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye is clearing out on ir. I thought this would happen. If it can keep it up, cat 5 might be obtainable.Hwrf might have had the right idea!

I'll be shocked if this becomes a Cat 5 but I think we could see a 3 or even a 4 out of this. It seems like the shear isn't much of a problem right now, but we'll see how long that lasts.

Yeah, but I’m not ruling it out.

[skyline385]

Even reaching Cat 4 might be a feat looking at the 20+ kts shear expected in 2-3 days.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY TO A HURRICANE...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1548497236916482048

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1548497236916482048

Posted it in detail in the Indicators thread but does blow my mind how EPAC in a third year Nina year is competing with 4/5 seasons which were 200-300 ACE (except 2012).

[skyline385]

Looks like its still struggling with shear from the NE, not looking ideal

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1548493481936445443

[skyline385]

Looks like its still struggling with shear from the NE, not looking ideal

https://i.imgur.com/CkLo4Rk.png

Seems to be taking quite a few hits in the last couple of hours

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2022071712, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1066W, 75, 984, HU

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 171211
TCSENP

A. 06E (ESTELLE)

B. 17/1130Z

C. 15.5N

D. 106.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=3.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

JTWC tier Dvoraking.