EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 7:41 am

EP, 06, 2022071612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1033W, 55, 997, TS
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 16, 2022 8:05 am

TXPZ27 KNES 161211
TCSENP

A. 06E (ESTELLE)

B. 16/1130Z

C. 13.8N

D. 103.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 9/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.5. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/1058Z 14.0N 103.0W SSMIS


...KIM
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:07 am

Image

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:11 am

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:17 am

Latest SHIPS (12z) brings this to ~105 kt with a 50/50 shot of 45 kts of intensification in 24 hours :eek:
Fairly decent shot at a major here if it can fend off the ~15 kt of shear, which it seems to be effective at doing
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:30 am

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ESTELLE EP062022 07/16/22 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 55 64 73 82 90 102 107 102 97 89 81 70 59 50 43 36 29
V (KT) LAND 55 64 73 82 90 102 107 102 97 89 81 70 59 50 43 36 29
V (KT) LGEM 55 65 74 83 91 103 107 101 89 76 65 54 45 37 31 26 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 8 9 16 17 18 24 25 12 8 6 10 1 3 6 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -6 -3 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 3 1 6 2
SHEAR DIR 51 63 79 50 41 60 50 26 27 33 5 334 305 34 246 135 162
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.0 27.9 26.8 25.9 25.1 23.6 22.3 22.2 21.9 22.4 22.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 158 158 160 155 144 132 123 115 99 85 84 81 87 84
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 78 78 79 80 76 75 76 72 67 64 58 55 49 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 23 26 29 28 31 32 32 29 27 24 21 18 16
850 MB ENV VOR -3 8 24 14 21 34 28 30 45 47 44 56 49 41 41 45 52
200 MB DIV 100 108 119 145 130 145 152 124 68 84 42 -20 -27 -6 -25 -15 -18
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -7 -1 -4 6 -4 2 -3 3 -3
LAND (KM) 460 443 434 444 462 521 630 689 762 855 954 1074 1146 1259 1406 1619 1812
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.3 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.1 104.8 105.6 106.4 108.4 110.2 112.6 115.0 117.2 119.5 121.7 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 29 31 28 21 17 18 13 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 22. 23. 22. 18. 13. 9. 6. 2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4.
RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 27. 35. 47. 52. 47. 42. 34. 26. 15. 4. -5. -12. -19. -26.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 10.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 13.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 6.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 11.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 7.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -10.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 2.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 1.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 35.3% 68.5% 58.1% 50.7% 29.5% 50.5% 38.0% 12.5%
Logistic: 15.1% 36.5% 20.9% 14.9% 10.5% 9.9% 10.5% 2.2%
Bayesian: 43.8% 37.8% 46.1% 26.2% 11.9% 6.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 31.4% 47.6% 41.7% 30.6% 17.3% 22.3% 16.5% 4.9%
DTOPS: 52.0% 76.0% 66.0% 51.0% 29.0% 66.0% 57.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062022 ESTELLE 07/16/22 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:37 am

My final guess 115kts may end up being too low. Very healthy flow and looks more like some of the bigger ones. Estelle is probably already a hurricane.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:49 am

Shear is forecast to quickly rise as it peaks so probably wont have much room to intensify furtherImage

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:51 am

There you go.

36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:20 am

Floater loop showing development so far

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:23 am

Image
It doesn't have much time.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:14 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:16 pm

Lots of banding but looks like it has been able to overcome the shear and close off.

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby wx98 » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:37 pm

Still a TS for now:
4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 16
Location: 14.2°N 104.4°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jul 16, 2022 4:37 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2022 Time : 205020 UTC
Lat : 14:11:24 N Lon : 104:22:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988mb / 65kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.1
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:04 pm

Estelle has a very large circulation and banding like what the HWRF has been showing for days. With this large circulation and core, Estelle will probably struggle to intensify much like on the model.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:13 pm

aspen wrote:Estelle has a very large circulation and banding like what the HWRF has been showing for days. With this large circulation and core, Estelle will probably struggle to intensify much like on the model.

It has a tight inner core. I don’t see much getting in the way of this thing. A large envelope can occur with smaller hurricanes. Wilma is an example of this. It had a large circulation but a tiny core.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:14 pm

Nice burst of convection near the center. We'll see if it's able to wrap around this time
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:26 pm

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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 16, 2022 6:17 pm

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