EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2022071518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1006W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 151823
TCSENP

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 12.6N

D. 100.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF A 2.0 MET IS 1.5
BASED ON DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH DT. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1548098861863825408

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ27 KNES 160012
TCSENP

A. 06E (NONAME)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 12.9N

D. 101.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
DT=2.5 MET=2.0 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[ElectricStorm]

18z HMON peaks at 979mb while HWRF has a 965mb Cat 3. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a major

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1548098861863825408?s=21&t=fsZtWGWxXC5jc0UlpuSvQw

I’m still doubtful this’ll get beyond a Cat 1. While the EPac has been overachieving for a La Niña year, Blas and Celia showed that storms this season aren’t all immune to pesky Nina shear and dry air. I think the 10-15+ kt that Estelle will have to deal with over the next few days will be too much for a phase of RI, despite the improving core.

[cycloneye]

Hello Estelle.

EP, 06, 2022071600, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1016W, 35, 1006, TS

[cycloneye]

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1548098861863825408?s=21&t=fsZtWGWxXC5jc0UlpuSvQw

I’m still doubtful this’ll get beyond a Cat 1. While the EPac has been overachieving for a La Niña year, Blas and Celia showed that storms this season aren’t all immune to pesky Nina shear and dry air. I think the 10-15+ kt that Estelle will have to deal with over the next few days will be too much for a phase of RI, despite the improving core.

Its forecast to be in decently moist environment until the shear lets up so maybe it wont be much of an issue

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Looks tilted but overall structure looks great right now. Hopefully no dry air issues as it's a sprawling system.

[Chris90]

"Joey! It's Estelle!" (Friends reference.)

I want to put in my guess for peak intensity. 90kts. I think she'll manage a decent round of intensification, but nothing like we saw with Darby.

[Ntxw]

BIg storms can be slow until they mature. I say 115kts but not until near or southwest of Socorro Island.

[Astromanía]

Cat 2 my guess

[Yellow Evan]

Estelle is going to have to deal with quite a bit (18z GFS had 15-20 knots) of northeasterly shear from a ULAC located to the northeast of Estelle which will have potential to tilt the vortex, but the shear magnitude is fairly uniform so there’s less likelihood of infamous unexpected mid-level shear here, especially in the short term. It’s large size is going to make it vulnerable for dry air intrusions until Estelle transitions from banding to CDO dominant but fortunately RH values are fairly high. The way the satellite presentation has trended, I’m confident Estelle will become a hurricane in about 18 hours or so but I’m not sure if Estelle will be able to properly clear out an eye. I could see this getting stuck in the T4.5-T5.0 range for a while as convection struggles to rotate upshear.

[Yellow Evan]

More like a hurricane by tomorrow morning.

[weeniepatrol]

This looks like it's bombing out

Impressive surface inflow too

[skyline385]

Lots of towers through the night, should be a hurricane today