EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2022 9:42 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 100.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days while the system remains well offshore of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system
could become a hurricane by late this weekend or early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart





Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate
that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past
several days has become better defined this morning. The associated
convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a
couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and
western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at
30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track
guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this
general heading and speed during the next couple of days while
moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it
is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone
early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward
heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The
official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current
track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well
offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings
are necessary at this time.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening,
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track
forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the
guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN
consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a
hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next
week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing
deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:37 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 100.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 100.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, and this motion
should continue into early next week as the system moves roughly
parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to
become a hurricane later this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Metop-B and -C scatterometer data today show the depression has a
well-defined surface circulation with a couple areas of 25-30 kt
winds to the north and northeast of its center. Overall, the deep
convection has become more fragmented this afternoon, although there
is new convective development near its center noted in recent
visible and infrared satellite imagery. Based on the scatterometer
winds, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The center of the depression has been relocated about 20-30 n mi
northeast of previous estimates based on scatterometer winds and
microwave data, and its initial motion is northwestward at 315/7 kt.
However, it is expected to resume a more west-northwestward heading
by tonight as it becomes steered by a mid-level ridge well to its
north. This track should keep the cyclone well offshore of
southwestern Mexico as it moves roughly parallel to the coast during
the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to continue
west-northwestward with a slight increase in forward speed on days
3-5 as the steering ridge remains entrenched to its north. The
latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the
previous one, largely a product of the center relocation and
its effect on the near-term track.

Strengthening is expected during the next several days as the
atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable along its track.
Very warm SSTs, abundant mid-level moisture, and weak to moderate
deep-layer northeasterly shear should provide a conducive
environment for intensification through early next week, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Sunday. The SHIPS
guidance continues to highlight the potential for some significant
strengthening, and the official NHC forecast remains on the high end
of the guidance between SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase by 72-96 h, and this
combined with cooler SSTs should cause weakening by days 4-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.1N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.9N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 15.6N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.0N 110.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 15, 2022 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

...TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by Saturday morning, with that
heading at a similar forward speed continuing through late Monday.
Estelle is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next few days, and Estelle could become a hurricane by Saturday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are expected to begin affecting
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico late Saturday and
will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula Sunday and Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

A series of microwave images since the last advisory show that the
depression's low-level structure has become better defined, with
the center nearly surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel.
In addition, a tight band of deep convection with cloud tops colder
than -80 degrees Celsius has been persisting near the center.
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.5, so the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Estelle with 35-kt winds.
However, this could be a conservative estimate given the improved
structure, and objective intensity estimates are running slightly
higher.

The initial motion is a little faster toward the northwest, or
310/9 kt, but satellite location fixes suggest the storm is
beginning to turn toward the west-northwest as expected. Mid-level
ridging is forecast to be entrenched over the southwestern United
States for the next 5 days, which should steer Estelle on a general
west-northwestward heading for the entirety of the forecast period.
There is not much spread among the track guidance, at least
cross-track wise, but it is notable that the GFS solution is a bit
slower than the other reliable guidance. The NHC track forecast is
just a little slower than the consensus aids to account for that
slower scenario, and this update is not too different from the
previous forecast.

Despite Estelle's improved structure, a sharp edge on the eastern
side of the deep convection in infrared imagery suggests there is
still some shear affecting the cyclone, and SHIPS is showing 10-15
kt of deep-layer shear out of the northeast. The GFS and ECMWF
versions of SHIPS differ a bit on when that shear will decrease,
although both versions show Estelle benefiting from high values of
upper-level divergence for the next 24-48 hours. Combined with
high oceanic heat content and the cyclone's well-defined low-level
structure, rapid intensification (RI) is a realistic possibility,
and some guidance is showing a 50/50 chance of RI during the next
24 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast hedges on the high
side of the guidance but stops just short of showing explicit RI
given the uncertainties on how much vertical shear will decrease.
Continued strengthening could occur through day 3, but colder
waters are likely to induce weakening on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 13.2N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.9N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 16.0N 107.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 16.7N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.8N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 5:23 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 103.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 103.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are expected to begin affecting
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and
will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the
southern Baja California peninsula Sunday and Monday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle has become much better organized during the past several
hours. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that
deep convection has increased near the center and an inner core has
formed. An ASCAT pass from around 05Z showed maximum winds of around
40 kt, but since Estelle is a compact tropical cyclone it likely did
not resolve its peak winds. The Dvorak classifications at 06Z from
TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin were all 3.0/45
kt. Since Estelle has continued to organize since then, the initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, in line with the
latest automated values from CIMSS.

The tropical storm seems poised to strengthen further as Estelle is
expected to remain in generally favorable atmospheric and oceanic
conditions. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index shows about
50 percent of RI occurring, and given the environment and
well-defined structure, the NHC forecast now calls for RI to occur
during the next 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear should
cause the intensity to plateau in the 36-72 hour period, followed by
weakening when Estelle moves over cooler waters and into a drier air
mass. This forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and
lies near the high end of the model guidance.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to gradually build
westward, which should keep Estelle on a general west-northwest
track during the next several days. The models have shifted a
little to the south and are faster this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This prediction still lies
on the northern side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:49 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 103.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and continued strengthening is expected during
the next day or two. Estelle is likely to become a hurricane later
today, and it is forecast to become a major hurricane by early
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are beginning to affect portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the
coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle has continued to strengthen this morning. Earlier passive
microwave imagery indicated the vortex was slightly tilted in the
vertical, likely due to 10-15 kt of deep-layer northeasterly shear
over the small cyclone. The mid-level eye feature was still open on
the upshear side, but recent satellite trends show an expanding
central dense overcast with -75 to -80 deg C cloud tops spreading
over its center. The 12 UTC objective and subjective satellite
estimates were all at 55 kt, but given the recent improved satellite
presentation and an uptick in the ADT estimates, the advisory
intensity is set at 60 kt.

Further strengthening is expected as Estelle moves within a moist
and unstable environment over very warm SSTs. Of course, this
assumes that Estelle is able to close off its inner core to help
resist the negative effects of continued moderate (10-15 kt)
deep-layer shear. The latest intensity guidance unanimously supports
at least steady strengthening over the next 24-36 h, and SHIPS/LGEM
favor rapid intensification (RI) with some indications that the
shear could weaken a bit later today. The NHC intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one and explicitly forecasts RI, generally
between the multi-model consensus and the most aggressive SHIPS/LGEM
aids. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane later today, and it
is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Monday. Later next
week, increasing shear and decreasing SSTs along its track should
lead to a weakening trend on days 3-5.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge entrenched over the southwestern U.S. should keep
steering Estelle west-northwestward during the next several days.
There is increased spread in the track guidance on days 3-5, with
the GFS on the far northern edge of the guidance envelope and the
ECWMF and UKMET faster and much farther south. The NHC track
forecast is nudged just a bit south of the previous one in the
extended range, but still lies slightly to the north of the TVCE and
HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 14.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.6N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 15.3N 106.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 17.2N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 115.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AND STRENGTHEN MORE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.4 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
Estelle is expected to become a hurricane by this evening and could
become a major hurricane by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on
Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Estelle does not look quite as impressive as it did this morning in
conventional satellite imagery. Its structure consists of a small,
ragged inner core with several curved outer bands that wrap around
its center. Northeasterly shear continues to impinge on the
cyclone, which could be importing some drier mid-level air into the
circulation. The latest subjective and objective satellite estimates
range from 55-65 kt, and without new microwave data to better assess
any structural changes, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

Despite a brief pause in intensification, environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for more strengthening during the next
couple of days. Overall, the latest intensity guidance favors steady
to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h as Estelle crosses
very warm SSTs in a moist and unstable environment. The persistent
moderate deep-layer shear is a concern, but only a small improvement
in its inner core structure should allow the small cyclone to resume
strengthening tonight. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the
higher end of the guidance, closest to SHIPS/LGEM and slightly above
HCCA, and shows peak intensity as a major hurricane in 36-48 h.
Then, increasing northerly shear and decreasing SSTs along the
forecast track should cause Estelle to weaken through the middle of
next week, as it moves into a drier mid-level environment.

Estelle is still moving west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The track
reasoning has not changed, and the cyclone should generally maintain
a west-northwestward heading during the next several days as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United
States. The NHC track forecast is just slightly left of the previous
track, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:37 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...ESTELLE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY TO A HURRICANE...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 105.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected through Tuesday.

Estelle is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued
rapid intensification is likely through Sunday, and Estelle is
forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday night. Some
weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on
Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

After taking a breather this afternoon, Estelle's inner-core
convection came back with a vengeance as a burst began around 2100
UTC and continued to organize around the center through the evening.
There have been no microwave images since this morning to help
assess the cyclone's structure, but the 00 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB
and the UW-CIMSS ADT support Estelle's upgrade to a hurricane. The
ADT ticked up a bit since then with a warm spot developing within
the Central Dense Overcast, so the advisory intensity is set at 70
kt. Either way, Estelle has rapidly intensified by at least 30 kt
over the past 24 hours.

Continued rapid intensification (RI) appears likely during the next
24 hours while Estelle moves over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and benefits from high values of upper-level divergence
and generally low shear. The conventional RI and DTOPS indices from
the GFS and ECWMF versions of SHIPS are still quite high, ranging
from a 50 to 75 percent chance of another 30-kt increase in
intensity over the next 24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast is near the top end of the guidance and explicit shows
RI, with Estelle expected to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt as
a major hurricane by 36 hours. Intensification is likely to level
off around that time as environmental conditions become a little
less ideal, and Estelle is expected to begin weakening over colder
waters by day 3. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of
the guidance during Estelle's expected weakening phase.

The current motion remains west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. A
mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States is
expected to strengthen and expand westward over the Pacific Ocean
in the coming days, which should continue steering Estelle toward
the west-northwest at a slightly faster pace. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the only notable update in this NHC
forecast is that it's a little faster than the afternoon forecast
in order to be more in line with the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
as well as the ECWMF solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.7N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:09 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle
could become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
400 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2022

After strengthening during the late afternoon and evening hours,
Estelle's intensity appears to have leveled off some overnight.
The system is maintaining a central dense overcast feature and
outer curved bands. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 65 to 77 kt, and
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt based on that data.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the south side of a
mid-level ridge that is centered over the southwestern U.S. A
slightly faster motion to the west-northwest is expected during the
next several days as the ridge builds westward over the eastern
Pacific. The models are in good agreement, and the new forecast is
only a little faster than the previous one.

The hurricane is expected to remain in favorable conditions for
another day or so, therefore, steady to possibly rapid
intensification is possible during that time period. However, an
increase in northeasterly shear should cause the strengthening
trend to end in 36 to 48 hours, followed by weakening when Estelle
moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier airmass.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and remains at the high end of the model guidance, closest to the
SHIPS model.

The main impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the
potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and
west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 15.1N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 18.1N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 19.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 22.5N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:29 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 107.1W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 107.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected, and Estelle
could become a major hurricane on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci


Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. There
are very cold cloud tops over the core that range between -70 to
-80 degrees Celsius, numerous and distinct banding features, and a
rather symmetric and pronounced upper-level outflow. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB estimated Estelle at 65 and
77 kt, respectively, and given the slightly improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear, high low-to-mid-tropospheric
humidities, and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to prevail
through tomorrow. This should allow for further intensification.
The official forecast is above the explicit model predictions
through 48 hours since there is potential for rapid intensification
according to the statistical guidance. Beyond two days, the NHC
intensity forecast follows the model consensus and weakens Estelle
as it encounters a more hostile thermodynamic and oceanic
environment.

The system is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
295/10 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
north and northeast, and should continue to head in the same
general direction for the next several days. Late in the forecast
period, when the storm weakens, the cyclone should turn westward
and follow the shallow low-level flow. The official forecast is
nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to the
multi-model consensus, TVCE.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 15.7N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.3N 108.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 17.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 19.8N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 21.6N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.6N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 107.9W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 107.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
later today and Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci





Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning.
There is an apparent dry slot near the core of the circulation,
which is possibly inhibiting further intensification for the time
being. The anticyclonic outflow, banding features, and cold cloud
tops remain intact, however. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are still 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively. Given
no changes to these estimates and the overall satellite appearance,
the initial intensity is kept at 75 kt.

The cyclone is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic
environment conducive for further strengthening during the next day
or so. Statistical guidance still shows the possibility of rapid
intensification in 24 hours and the official forecast remains above
all dynamical guidance through 48 hours. Thereafter, vertical wind
shear over Estelle is predicted to increase, and in 72 hours sea
surface temperatures begin to decrease significantly. This effect
should result in a fairly rapid rate of weakening.

Estelle continues moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt on the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This synoptic feature is
expected to continue to steer the hurricane in the same general
direction for the next several days. The official forecast is
practically the same as the previous NHC track and again follows the
multi-model consensus, TVCE, closely.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:42 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

...ESTELLE A BIT WEAKER, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
through the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is still forecast over the next day or
so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
tonight through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin




Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle's structure this evening is quite disheveled, with
last-light visible satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level
center was somewhat detached north from the deeper convective
activity that is more aligned with the mid-level center. We finally
received our first microwave imagery over Estelle in more than 24
hours, an AMSR2 pass at 2013 UTC, which confirmed this structure,
also indicating that the center had jogged a bit north of the
previous forecast track. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at
0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB were still 77 kt and 65 kt
respectively, but both SATCON and ADT estimates have dropped from
earlier today. The initial intensity this advisory is set at 70 kt
as a compromise from all these various estimates.

Despite the earlier northward jog, Estelle remains on a general
west-northwestward heading at 300/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is
situated north of the cyclone, and is forecast to build-in further
westward with time. The model guidance responds to this building
ridge by maintaining Estelle on a similar heading, though with a
short-term bend more westward and slight acceleration in the forward
motion. The latest track forecast shows a similar evolution, though
is on the north side of the guidance envelope early on, due to both
the further north initial position, and the somewhat leftward bias
observed in the track forecast over the past 24 hours. However, by
the end of the forecast period, the current track forecast ends up
located close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCE.

The intensity forecast is a bit problematic. Estelle appears to have
ingested dry air into its inner-core today, possibly assisted by
moderate northerly vertical wind shear under the typical 200-850 mb
layer. This shear may be a result of the current misaligned low and
mid-level centers. This inner-core structure also argues against
rapid intensification in the short-term. However, SHIPS
environmental variables still show Estelle remaining over 28C or
warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 24-36 hours
while embedded in a fairly moist mid-level environment. Assuming the
current dry-air near the core can be mixed out and the moderate
shear does not import additional dry air, intensification still
appears possible. The latest intensity forecast now indicates a more
gradual intensification rate, assuming it will take a little time
for the current core structure to recover. This intensity forecast
is still somewhat higher than the majority of the guidance. After
36 hours, Estelle will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, and be
over sub 25C waters by 60 hours. Thus, weakening is anticipated and
the latest forecast now makes Estelle post-tropical by 96 hours,
which is a little faster than before.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 16.8N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:40 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 109.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 109.8 West. Estelle is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or two and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle has generally changed little during the past several hours,
but the hurricane is less organized than it was 24 hours ago. The
system continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection,
but a recent GMI microwave pass showed that northerly shear is
causing a significant asymmetry in the storm's structure. The center
is located near the northern edge of the convection and banding
features are mostly confined to the south of the center. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. An ASCAT pass
from around 05Z indicated that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii were
larger than previously estimated.

The hurricane is expected to remain over warm water for another
24-36 hours, but north to northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to persist during that time period. Given the storm's
current structure and continued shear, only a little strengthening
seems possible during that time period. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle
will be tracking over waters cooler than 26 C and into a drier and
more stable air mass. These conditions should cause a steady
weakening trend, and the system will likely become post-tropical in
3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again lower than the
previous one and it lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but falls in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus
models after 36 hours.

Estelle has been moving a little north of the previous forecast with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. The models
show a mid-level ridge building westward to the north of Estelle,
which should cause the system to move generally west-northwestward
for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, mostly based on the initial motion
and position.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.5N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:47 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 111.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or
so, but weakening is expected to begin around the middle of the
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). An automated Mexican Navy weather station on Socorro
Island recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and
gusts to 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on
satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center
of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast.
Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the
estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing
a blend of these estimates.

Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future
strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm
sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental
moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day.
Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface
isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the
drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken
to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly
higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then
follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours.

The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This
general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as
Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the
forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker
system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the
previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus
guidance, TVCE.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.5 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow,
followed by steady weakening for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Since this morning, the central features of Estelle have become
more ragged in appearance. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass from
1415 UTC showed a tilted vortex structure, suggesting the vertical
wind shear is preventing the hurricane from strengthening. The
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have changed
little and the initial intensity remains at 70 kt.

Model guidance indicates Estelle only has a brief period to
intensify before moving over sea surface temperatures cooler than 25
C. However, moderate north-northwesterly wind shear is likely to
persist through tonight and inhibit significant strengthening. A
steady weakening trend is expected to begin in a day or so and
Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within a few
days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the latest
consensus model guidance.

Estelle continues to move west-northwest at 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge associated with a strong high pressure system over the
southwestern United States should provide the main steering for the
next few days. As the cyclone degenerates into a post-tropical
cyclone/remnant low, it should follow the low-level winds and turn
more westward. The official forecast is very close to the latest
corrected model consensus, HCCA.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.2N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 21.8N 123.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/1800Z 23.4N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 18, 2022 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...ESTELLE BARELY A HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 113.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 113.6 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day
or two followed by more pronounced weakening, and Estelle is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone towards the end of
the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the southern
Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to continue for
the next day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle's structure has continued to go downhill this afternoon and
evening. While upper-level outflow is fanning out westward ahead of
the hurricane, last light visible satellite imagery continues to
indicate that the low-level center remains displaced to the
northwest of the coldest cloud tops. In fact, an earlier AMSR2
microwave pass at 2057 UTC showed increasing separation between the
low-level center on the 37-GHz channel and the mid-level center on
the 89-GHz channel. This southeast tilt with height also appears to
be captured well on the most recent HWRF run, and is likely the
result of continued northwesterly shear undercutting the outflow
layer, helping import dry stable air into Estelle's core. Satellite
intensity estimates have been gradually decreasing, though an
earlier ASCAT-C pass at 1722 UTC still showed peak winds of 61-kt in
the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Assuming some
undersampling, the initial intensity is lowered to only 65 kt this
advisory, though this could be generous.

It seems that Estelle's time left to intensify has run out. In fact,
the hurricane has already been gradually weakening over the past day
or so. While the current moderate northwesterly shear is expected to
subside some over the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over
sub 26 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) by that time span. Thus,
the latest intensity forecast now shows Estelle gradually weakening
over the next 24-48 hours, with more pronounced weakening thereafter
when SSTs drop below 23 C. Simulated IR brightness temperature data
from the ECMWF and CMC models suggest Estelle will cease to produce
organized deep convection by 72 hours, and the system is forecast to
become a post-tropical remnant low by then. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is now more in line with the intensity guidance consensus,
though early on favors a blend of the HWRF/HMON forecasts, which
appear to be correctly capturing the current tilted structure of the
cyclone well.

Estelle has been taking a slight leftward bend in its recent track,
but in general has maintained a west-northwestward heading at 285/12
kt. A prominent mid-level ridge located to the northeast of Estelle
should maintain the cyclone on a west-northwest heading at a similar
motion for the next 2-3 days. Thereafter, as the system becomes more
vertically shallow, its track is forecast to bend back westward as
it becomes more steered by the low-level easterly trade winds. The
latest track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, taking a
blend of the consensus aids HCCA and TVCE.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 21.3N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 23.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2022 4:26 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 114.7W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slight turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion
should continue through midweek.

Satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, and
Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. An automated Mexican Navy weather station on
Clarion Island recently reported a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and the
southern Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
300 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Northerly shear continues to take a toll on Estelle. Its low-level
center appears to be partially exposed in proxy visible satellite
imagery, with its associated deep convection limited in coverage and
confined to the southern and eastern portions of its circulation.
Estelle is no longer a hurricane, and recent ASCAT-B and -C data
showed peak derived winds of 45-50 kt in the northeast quadrant of
the cyclone. After accounting for some undersampling, the initial
intensity of Estelle is lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

Estelle is expected to continue weakening. Although the deep-layer
shear is likely to diminish within the next 12-24 h, the cyclone
will cross the 26 deg C isotherm later today and move over
progressively cooler SSTs through midweek. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the multi-model consensus and calls for steady
weakening over the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery from
the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will struggle to
generate deep, organized convection later this week as it moves into
a drier and more stable airmass. Estelle is forecast to degenerate
into a post-tropical remnant low by Thursday, but it could take a
couple more days for the low to open into a trough and dissipate.

The initial motion of Estelle is westward at 280/11 kt, but it is
expected to turn west-northwestward later today as it moves around
the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
United States. This ridge will keep Estelle on a west-northwestward
heading for the next few days. As the cyclone spins down and becomes
more vertically shallow, the low-level trade wind flow should steer
the remnant low more westward on days 4-5. The NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.6N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 22.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 22.7N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:44 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 115.5W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 115.5 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast and Estelle is likely to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Estelle will diminish along the coasts
of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

NNNN



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the
fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island
where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near
tropical-storm-force strength. The central pressure of Estelle was
adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations. Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt,
respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent
a blend of the classifications.

A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the
forecast period. While the vertical wind shear is not expected to
be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface
temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable
air mass. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it
difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep
convection. This should result in a gradual spindown of the
circulation. The official intensity forecast follows the
multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The track philosophy is unchanged. Estelle is moving
west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents
of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast. This motion is
predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm
becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade
winds. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous
advisory and close to the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:38 pm

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 192033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE MAINTAINING INTENSITY FOR NOW...
...SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 116.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 116.9 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Estelle is likely to
become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Deep convection reformed over the center today while the vertical
wind shear abated. Data from a recent scatterometer pass showed
that Estelle still has winds of at least 55 kt, which will be used
for the advisory intensity. This is a little above most of the
Dvorak estimates.

Based on the current intensity trend and the forecast for weak
vertical wind shear, it seems possible that Estelle may maintain its
strength for about 12 hours while over marginal sea surface
temperatures. Within a day or so, the storm is forecast to be over
even cooler waters and within a drier mid- to low-level environment
which should result in weakening. Estelle is predicted to be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The official intensity forecast is
close the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion of the storm has increased slightly to 12 kt
while Estelle moves west-northwestward around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge. This general trajectory is likely to continue for
the next few days until the weakening circulation becomes more
shallow and is steered by the low-level winds. The NHC track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory prediction,
and is quite similar to the multi-model consensus aid, TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.5N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2022 9:36 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...ESTELLE STILL A 65 MPH TROPICAL STORM BUT WEAKENING SHOULD
RESUME TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 118.0W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and
Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin




Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Compared to 24 hours ago, Estelle's cloud shield is more symmetric,
though the coldest cloud-top temperatures have been warming this
evening. The increased symmetry is likely due in part to afternoon
convection that was finally able to wrap around the northern
semicircle of the cyclone, as recently seen on a 0002 UTC SSMIS
microwave pass. This structural change was also likely aided by a
reduction in vertical wind shear today which is now estimated to be
less than 5 kt in the 0000 UTC SHIPS guidance. Dvorak satellite
estimates remain unchanged from earlier today, and given the earlier
peak scatterometer wind retrievals in the 50-52 kt range, the
initial intensity will be maintained at 55 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to track off to the west-northwest,
with the latest motion estimated at 290/12 kt. A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days,
albeit with a gradual bend westward as the cyclone becomes
vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level
easterlies. Few changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast,
and the current track remains close to the consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.

Estelle is currently crossing the 25C sea surface temperature (SST)
isotherm and even cooler SSTs lie along the storm's path. Even with
the lower vertical wind shear, these cooler waters in combination
with an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere should cause the
cyclone to gradually weaken over the next 24-48 hours. This forecast
is in line with the intensity guidance consensus. Organized
convection is likely to gradually fade away by 48 hours, when
Estelle will be over 21C SSTs, and the latest forecast makes the
system a post-tropical remnant low at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.2N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 20.8N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 21.4N 121.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 22.8N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 23.0N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:45 am

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle's cloud pattern has been reduced to small bursts of deep
convection near its center this morning. A 0427 UTC GMI microwave
pass revealed a couple of fragmented curved bands around its
circulation, but cloud top temperatures in this region have warmed
during the past several hours. Unfortunately, scatterometer data
failed to sample the inner core of Estelle this morning. A blend of
the current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and
SAB (T3.0/45 kt) support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt.

A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Estelle is steering the
tropical storm toward the west-northwest at 295/12 kt. This general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the
next couple of days or so. Then, a westward turn is forecast as the
shallow, weakening system becomes steered by the low-level easterly
trade winds. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Decreasing SSTs along Estelle's path will make it increasingly
difficult for the cyclone to sustain deep, organized convection
during the next couple of days. Continued weakening is expected, and
Estelle is likely to lose all convection by Thursday as it moves
into a drier and more stable environment over sub-22 deg C waters.
The latest NHC forecast calls for Estelle to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday and dissipate this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.6N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests