EPAC: ESTELLE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Estelle continues to fire off a small burst of convection close to
and just southeast of its nearly exposed low-level circulation. A
microwave pass from 0951 UTC showed only one banded feature in the
northeastern quadrant. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 55 kt to 35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.
Weakening is expected to resume through the forecast period as the
storm passes over increasingly cooler waters. Estelle is predicted
to be a post-tropical cyclone within a day. The official intensity
prediction follows the model consensus aids and there have been no
major changes from the previous advisory forecast.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. Estelle
is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast
and the west-northwestward track with a gradual decrease in forward
speed is likely to continue through 72 hours. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous prediction and close the TVCE
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 21.2N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 22/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 22.9N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z 23.2N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 122.3W
ABOUT 795 MI...1285 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 122.3 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Small bursts of convection continue near and over the center of
Estelle, but this convection is not especially deep with coldest
cloud tops of around -50 to -55 degrees C. A recent scatterometer
pass over the center showed surface winds not exceeding 40 kt. To
account for undersampling, the initial intensity estimate is only
reduced to 45 kt. This is also consistent with the Dvorak current
intensity estimate from TAFB. The scatterometer data also revealed
that tropical-storm-force winds are only occurring over the northern
semicircle of the cyclone. Estelle is currently over sea surface
temperatures of around 23 degrees C. The storm is expected to be
over even cooler waters within a day, likely inhibiting convection.
The official forecast shows Estelle becoming a post-tropical remnant
low within a day and dissipated within 72 hours.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster 13 kt.
However, the tightly clustered guidance insists that the cyclone's
forward speed will be decreasing over the next couple of days. A
large mid-level ridge associated with a high pressure system
centered over the southwestern US should continue to steer Estelle
in the same general direction through the forecast period. The NHC
track prediction is a little bit faster than the forecast from the
previous advisory and a little north of the multi-model consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 21.6N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 22.0N 123.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.5N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 22.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z 23.4N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...ESTELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 123.2W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 123.2 West. Estelle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Estelle is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin



Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Convection near the center of Estelle has actually cooled a bit from
earlier today, with cloud tops below -60C currently covering the
circulation center, though the areal extent is quite small. Despite
this activity, Dvorak satellite classifications continue to slowly
decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt for
this advisory. This brief convective resurgence is likely the
storm's last gasp before even cooler sea-surface temperatures below
22 C and an increasingly dry and stable airmass choke off the
remaining core convection. The latest forecast still shows Estelle
become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours, with this low
opening up into a trough in 2-3 days.

Estelle may be finally starting to slow down, with its latest motion
estimated at 290/10 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate
that the storm should slow down further over the next day or so as
Estelle transitions from being steered by a mid-level ridge to its
northeast to a broader low-level ridge located across the northern
Pacific. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted close to
the previous NHC forecast track and few changes were needed for this
forecast cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 21.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 22.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 23.0N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 23.2N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z 23.3N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle is nearing the end of its run as a tropical cyclone. A 0243
UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small curved band of inner core
convection, but since then, only sporadic convective bursts have
occurred near its center while the inner core cloud top temperatures
have warmed. Objective and subjective satellite estimates continue
to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory. Without organized convection near its center, Estelle will
continue to weaken as it moves into a drier airmass over 21-22 C
SSTs. It is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later
today, and the remnant low should open into a trough and dissipate
this weekend.

Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 290/11 kt. The system is
expected to slow down over the next couple of days and gradually
turn westward as it becomes steered by a low-level ridge over the
eastern North Pacific. The NHC track forecast lies near or just
south of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, which is similar to the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 22.3N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0600Z 23.0N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1800Z 23.2N 128.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0600Z 23.4N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 23.5N 131.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Estelle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has diminished to a swirl of mostly low- to mid-level
clouds with very little organized deep convection. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT agree that the
surface wind speeds are now around 30 kt. Based on these
estimates, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression.
Estelle should remain over cold water and continue to weaken. Unless
there is a significant redevelopment of deep convection, the system
is likely to be designated as a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Estelle continues to move west-northwestward at 11 kt while being
steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected until the
system opens up into a trough in a couple of days. The official
forecast is shifted slightly north of the previous prediction and is
in line with the new track model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 22.7N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.0N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 23.4N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z 23.6N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1200Z 23.8N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

...ESTELLE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 126.5W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Estelle was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 126.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h) and a westward to slightly north of westward motion is
expected to continue until dissipation this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Estelle is expected to weaken further and dissipate by this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 2022

Estelle has not produced a significant amount of deep convection
for the past 12 hours or so. Therefore the system no longer
qualifies as a tropical cyclone and this will be the last advisory.
The remnant low of Estelle should continue to gradually spin down
and degenerate into a trough by this weekend. This is consistent
with the forecasts from global models.

Visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center is a
little farther south of the previous track forecast. The updated
prediction reflects this slight southward shift. The post-tropical
cyclone should move westward or a little north of westward in the
low-level winds for the next couple of days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 22.3N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 22.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 22.9N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z 23.1N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 23.3N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci