EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#121 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:06 am

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#122 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:09 am

Frank reminds me a lot of Paulette 2020 in the Atlantic. Struggled with shear during most of its early life, then when shear finally abates allowing it to intensify to a hurricane, it underperformed because of dry air.
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#123 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:13 am

TXPZ28 KNES 310548
TCSENP

A. 07E (FRANK)

B. 31/0531Z

C. 18.2N

D. 118.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS IN A DT
OF 3.5 AFTER A -0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON APPARENT GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND OVER 24 HOURS. PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK


Nothing in the Dvorak 1984 manual even remotely suggests this…
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#124 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:18 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
TXPZ28 KNES 310548
TCSENP

A. 07E (FRANK)

B. 31/0531Z

C. 18.2N

D. 118.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN OW RESULTS IN A DT
OF 3.5 AFTER A -0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON APPARENT GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND OVER 24 HOURS. PT IS 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK


Nothing in the Dvorak 1984 manual even remotely suggests this…


I was just about to post this. What is going on over there
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#125 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 5:22 am

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Frank appears to be maintaining its intensity for the time being,
with bands of strong convection more prevalent over the southern
portion of the circulation and a small CDO feature. The eye has
been apparent at times on enhanced infrared imagery, and
upper-level outflow remains well-defined. The advisory intensity is
held at 80 kt, which is just above the subjective Dvorak estimates
and close to the most recent SATCON value from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is currently over SSTs near 26.5 deg C, and will be
traversing cooler waters while moving into a progressively drier and
more stable air mass over the next few days. Thus a slow but
steady weakening trend is likely to commence today and continue for
the remainder of the forecast period. By 72 hours, Frank is
projected to be over SSTs near 20 deg C, and should have degenerated
into a remnant low. This is consistent with simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models that depict
practically no remaining deep convection by that time. The
official intensity forecast is a little above the latest IVCN and
HCCA consensus guidance.

Frank continues its northwestward trek and is still moving at
about 315/10 kt. Over the next several days, the cyclone should
maintain this general motion while moving along the southwestern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge, and toward a trough in the
vicinity of 130-135 W. Later in the forecast period, the weaker
and more shallow system should move generally northward following
the low-level flow. The official track forecast is not much
different from the previous one and is close to the latest
corrected consensus model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 18.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 19.7N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 21.2N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 22.7N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 24.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 26.0N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.8N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0600Z 31.0N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0600Z 34.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#126 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:14 am

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#127 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:56 am

Big eye
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#128 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:08 am

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#129 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:47 am

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a
small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that
time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature
remaining. Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the
low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.

Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving
over progressively cooler waters during the next few days. In
addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable
environment. Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and
dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast
follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially
an update of the previous advisory.

Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt. The cyclone should move
on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a
weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn
north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus
models and is very close to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#130 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:56 am

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#131 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:00 pm

EP, 07, 2022073118, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1198W, 70, 983, HU
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#132 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:33 pm

Even though lacking in IR, those spiral bands with the partially exposed LLC look really good on Visible band

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#133 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:42 pm

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The satellite presentation of Frank has gradually degraded today
with an erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle and
a general warming of cloud top temperatures elsewhere. An eye was
still evident in earlier microwave imagery, but it was open to the
south. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and a blend of
the latest CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70
kt.

Frank will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a
more stable air mass over the next several days. As a result,
steady weakening should continue with Frank becoming a
post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday. This is consistent with the GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery which show little, if any,
remaining deep convection by that time. The official forecast calls
for the remnant low to dissipate by the end of the period which is
also supported by the dynamical model guidance.

Frank is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to
the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue
northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge
during the next couple of days. Once the cyclone becomes weaker
and more vertically shallow, a slower northward motion is
predicted. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update
of the previous advisory, and it remains near the center of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 20.1N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#134 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:59 pm

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Hurricane

#135 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:35 pm

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The hurricane is continuing to weaken as it moves over colder
water, and the cloud tops temperatures associated with the cyclone
are gradually warming. The various objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and the initial
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

The cyclone will continue to move over colder water, reaching the
21C sea surface temperature isotherm between 36-48 h. Thus, steady
weakening should continue, with Frank becoming a post-tropical
cyclone between 48-60 h and dissipating completely before 120 h.
The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity
guidance and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Frank is still moving northwestward or 320/10 kt, and while it
sounds like a broken record there is no change to the track
forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue northwestward
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge during the next
couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the steering
currents should change some as cyclone should become more
vertically shallow, and a slower northward motion is expected. The
new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and
follows the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 20.8N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 22.0N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 25.3N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 26.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 30.6N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 33.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#136 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:34 am

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank has continued to weaken while moving over increasingly colder
waters, and deep convection is becoming more fragmented and
diminishing in depth. Unflagged data from an ASCAT-C
scatterometer pass at around 0500 UTC indicate that the maximum
winds have decreased to just below hurricane force, so the advisory
intensity is reduced to 60 kt. This is also the mean of the latest
Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Since the system will be moving over even colder ocean waters of
near 20 deg C by 48 hours, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into
a post-tropical remnant low by that time, or sooner. The official
intensity forecast follows the latest model consensus, IVCN,
prediction. Post-tropical cyclone Frank is expected to dissipate by
the end of the forecast period.

Frank remains on its northwestward course with the initial motion
continuing near 320/10 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to move along
the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge
associated with a strong high over the southwestern United States
for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, Frank or
its remnant should move generally northward in the low-level flow.
The official track forecast is very close to the simple and
corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 21.7N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 28.0N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/1800Z 29.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 31.8N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 35.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#137 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:42 am

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Frank has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while the storm moves over cooler
waters. As a result, Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are decreasing
and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which is a
blend of those estimates, and the assumption weakening has occurred
since the time of the overnight scatterometer overpasses.

Frank will be moving over SSTs of 21 to 22 Celsius during the next
day or so, and this should result in a continued steady decrease in
intensity. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
models suggest Frank will cease to produce deep convection by 36
hours, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone by that time. The remnant low is expected to dissipate
within 3 to 4 days.

Frank continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt around the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. By 48 hours, when the system
weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, it should turn
generally northward with the low-level flow. The NHC track
prediction is close to the latest consensus aids, which is slightly
left of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 22.4N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.6N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 25.1N 125.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 26.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z 30.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 32.8N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#138 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:57 am

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#139 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:47 pm

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Re: EPAC: FRANK - Tropical Storm

#140 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022

Frank's convection continues to fade as it maintains its trek over
cooler waters. In response, both subjective and objective Dvorak
numbers are decreasing. In addition, we received a direct overhead
ASCAT-B pass at 1820 UTC, which showed a peak wind retrieval of
43-kt in the northern semicircle of the storm. Assuming a little
undersampling from this instrument, the intensity was reduced to 45
kt this advisory, favoring the lower end of Dvorak estimates.

Frank is still moving northwestward at 310/10 kt. There is little
change in the track reasoning this cycle. Frank's track should
gradually bend more poleward as it becomes a shallow vortex and is
steered by the southerly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. The
latest NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is
just a touch left of the previous forecast.

Sea surface temperatures under the storm are already down to 22 C
and only cool further along the forecast track. The latest model
output from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and HWRF all suggest the remaining
convection will fizzle out over the next 24 hours. The latest
forecast now shows Frank becoming a post-tropical cyclone by that
time-frame. It will take another few days for the large wind
field of Frank to spin down enough for it to open up into a
trough. This is expected to occur by Friday, well offshore
southeastward of coastal California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 22.8N 123.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 24.0N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 25.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 03/0600Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1800Z 29.4N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 31.4N 127.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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