Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022
In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since
the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved
convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the
way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged,
possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However,
recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a
good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate
convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite
intensity estimates have changed little since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.
Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over
sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the
inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster
rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry
air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to
sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume
as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the
trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of
90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over
progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico,
and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast
period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California.
The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has
changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast.
It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track
or intensity of Frank.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022
In infrared imagery, Frank's appearance has not changed much since
the last advisory. While the system shows a large curved
convective band that wraps a little more than three-quarters of the
way around the center, the central deep convection is a bit ragged,
possibly due to dry air entrainment from the northwest. However,
recent 37 GHz microwave data shows the cyclone has developed a
good low-level structure, with a ring of shallow to moderate
convection surrounding a 40 n mi wide developing eye. Satellite
intensity estimates have changed little since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 55 kt.
Frank will be in an environment of light vertical shear and over
sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the next 36 h, and the
inner-core structure seen in the microwave imagery favors a faster
rate of strengthening. The one current negative factor is the dry
air entrainment that is causing the inner core deep convection to
sputter. The intensity forecast assumes strengthening will resume
as the deep convection will becomes persistent, and it follows the
trend of the intensity guidance in calling for a peak intensity of
90 kt in 36 h. After that time, Frank should move over
progressively cooler SSTs, with the system reaching 21C water by
120 h. This should cause steady to rapid weakening, and Frank is
forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Frank is moving along the
southwest side of the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico,
and it should move generally northwestward during the forecast
period toward a developing break in the ridge west of California.
The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and has
changed little since the previous advisory. Thus, the new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast.
It again should be noted that Frank and Tropical Storm Georgette
are expected to come close enough to one another for some
interaction. Frank will be the larger and dominant system during
this interaction, and Georgette will have little impact on the track
or intensity of Frank.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 15.3N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 16.5N 116.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.7N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 18.9N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 20.2N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.5N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
