EP, 97, 2022072418, , BEST, 0, 108N, 938W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, SPAWNINVEST, ep722022 to ep972022,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep972022.dat
EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical
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cycloneye
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EPAC: FRANK - Post-Tropical
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep972022.dat
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972022 07/24/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 53 62 69 72 75 79 81 81 84 82 79
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 53 62 69 72 75 79 81 81 84 82 79
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 42 46 51 57 62 67 72 76 74 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 15 12 11 13 18 17 16 14 11 4 2 5 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -2 0 3 4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 96 84 74 73 75 42 54 44 55 27 15 21 360 16 17 19 343
SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.2 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.1 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 154 151 153 153 155 151 153 147 137 134 128 113 109
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 4 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 77 76 74 71 72 72 69 69 66 66 60 59 55 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 21 23 24 30 30 32
850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 45 36 49 41 36 22 25 27 31 33 34 47 51 60 55
200 MB DIV 79 93 101 110 99 57 42 90 75 43 34 51 51 66 57 44 12
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 -2 1 -1 1
LAND (KM) 435 480 542 545 547 568 588 618 608 641 685 755 764 869 960 1076 1197
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.4 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.6 95.5 96.4 97.4 99.5 101.7 103.9 105.9 107.9 109.9 112.1 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 19 25 23 25 32 20 15 16 9 5 3 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 19. 18. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 28. 37. 44. 47. 50. 54. 56. 56. 60. 57. 54.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 93.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/24/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/24/22 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972022 07/24/22 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 53 62 69 72 75 79 81 81 84 82 79
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 53 62 69 72 75 79 81 81 84 82 79
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 42 46 51 57 62 67 72 76 74 70
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 15 12 11 13 18 17 16 14 11 4 2 5 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -2 0 3 4 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 96 84 74 73 75 42 54 44 55 27 15 21 360 16 17 19 343
SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.2 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.1 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 154 151 153 153 155 151 153 147 137 134 128 113 109
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 4 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 75 77 78 77 76 74 71 72 72 69 69 66 66 60 59 55 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 21 23 24 30 30 32
850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 45 36 49 41 36 22 25 27 31 33 34 47 51 60 55
200 MB DIV 79 93 101 110 99 57 42 90 75 43 34 51 51 66 57 44 12
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 -2 1 -1 1
LAND (KM) 435 480 542 545 547 568 588 618 608 641 685 755 764 869 960 1076 1197
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.4 16.4 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.6 95.5 96.4 97.4 99.5 101.7 103.9 105.9 107.9 109.9 112.1 114.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 19 25 23 25 32 20 15 16 9 5 3 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 36. 38. 39. 39. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 19. 18. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 28. 37. 44. 47. 50. 54. 56. 56. 60. 57. 54.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 93.8
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 07/24/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.29 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 07/24/22 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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Sciencerocks
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Nice structure so far, but heading change will hurt it in 48 hours.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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MHC Tracking
- Tropical Storm
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
GEFS looks like it wants a hurricane. Not so sure if I trust this, given the lack of support for this intensity from other modeling, and the rollercoaster nature of oper-GFS intensity forecasting for this disturbance.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
We should see Frank out of this but I'm not very confident in this one becoming anything significant.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower activity is starting to show signs of organization associated
with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south off the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression in the next few days. This system is forecast to
move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 24 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower activity is starting to show signs of organization associated
with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles south off the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression in the next few days. This system is forecast to
move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
EP, 97, 2022072500, , BEST, 0, 110N, 954W, 25, 1009, DB
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression in the next day
or two. This low pressure area is forecast to move generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression in the next day
or two. This low pressure area is forecast to move generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Papin
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind
data also indicates the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. This low pressure area is
forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Recent satellite-derived wind
data also indicates the circulation is gradually becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression over the next day or so. This low pressure area is
forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
south of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
EP, 97, 2022072518, , BEST, 0, 110N, 992W, 30, 1008, LO
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
TXPZ28 KNES 251828
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)
B. 25/1730Z
C. 11.3N
D. 99.7W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
TCSENP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)
B. 25/1730Z
C. 11.3N
D. 99.7W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN DT OF 1.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight
or on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better
organized in association with an area of low pressure located a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and this
system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight
or on Tuesday. The system is forecast to move generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
EP, 97, 2022072600, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1002W, 30, 1008, LO
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97E)
B. 25/2330Z
C. 11.1N
D. 100.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A LLCC NEAR A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. ERLY MID-LVL
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHANGE TO 0.5 IN FIRST 24 HR.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON
B. 25/2330Z
C. 11.1N
D. 100.2W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND A LLCC NEAR A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. ERLY MID-LVL
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS LIMITING FT CHANGE TO 0.5 IN FIRST 24 HR.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KONON
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ElectricStorm
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- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E
HWRF bombs it like usual 
959mb at the end of the run. HMON down to 967mb at the end of the run. GFS keeps it pretty weak.
I'm still leaning towards the weaker solutions for now, but maybe it can get going quickly and prove me wrong
959mb at the end of the run. HMON down to 967mb at the end of the run. GFS keeps it pretty weak. I'm still leaning towards the weaker solutions for now, but maybe it can get going quickly and prove me wrong
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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