WPAC: SONGDA - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: SONGDA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:31 am

93W INVEST 220725 0600 14.3N 146.1E WPAC 15 1008

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:48 am

Image

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:29 pm

ABPW10 PGTW 251730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251730Z-260600ZJUL2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2N
145.4E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250922Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST, SINGLE-CHANNEL OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). ADDITIONALLY, SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
SAIPAN HAS DECREASED 3 MB OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:21 am

Euro 06z. An intense typhoon might be hopeless but it kind of makes up for being interesting by having a fujiwhara with the western system.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby Subtrop » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:35 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 15.5N 143.4E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 18.9N 140.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 281200UTC 23.5N 137.9E 130NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 291200UTC 28.0N 131.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 301200UTC 29.8N 127.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 311200UTC 30.2N 123.9E 390NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#6 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:45 am

JMA may have jumped the gun calling this a TD. 12Z ASCAT indicates a trough axis. No closed circulation.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#7 Postby zzh » Tue Jul 26, 2022 4:38 pm

ASCAT shows a broad monsoon trough, however JMA forecast a TS in 24h. I doubt it can organize that fast given the loose structure.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#8 Postby zzh » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:23 pm

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This will take days to consolidate
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:27 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2205 SONGDA (2205) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 22.5N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 26.5N 134.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW 30KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 291200UTC 28.9N 128.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 26KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 301200UTC 30.2N 126.1E 130NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 311200UTC 32.4N 123.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 011200UTC 35.2N 122.3E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#10 Postby zzh » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:43 am

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what is wrong with jma
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby MHC Tracking » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:47 am

Personally would not call this a tropical cyclone, seems to be a trough still - but it may gradually consolidate into one as it approaches the East China Sea
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:06 am

If it is in Atlantic, it's already TS since yesterday. :lol:
(Sorry for my English)
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:40 am

Recent scatterometer indicates a trof axis. Not sure what JMA is up to.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Jul 28, 2022 9:44 am

How is that a tropical cyclone? I do not see anything to suggest an organizedsurface low.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:10 am

Waaaaaay better than a lot of TS in Atlantic.
#recon
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby MHC Tracking » Thu Jul 28, 2022 10:46 am

NewbieAboutcyclones wrote:Waaaaaay better than a lot of TS in Atlantic.
#recon

Before making statements like this, why not take a look at your own basin?
(Ma-on 2016)
Image
(Mitag 2014)
Image
(Malou 2016)
Image
(14W 2016)
Image
(17W 2016)
Image
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 28, 2022 12:31 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/MMcyjMj.jpg
what is wrong with jma

I kinda feel like they wanted to break the STY Songda streak by naming the ugliest and least classifiable system possible.
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WPAC: INVEST 94W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:27 pm

94W.INVEST

94W INVEST 220728 1800 25.7N 136.8E WPAC 25 1004

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#19 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:24 pm

WTPN22 PGTW 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282100Z JUL 22//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 282100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.1N 137.1E TO 29.4N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 25.7N 136.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: INVEST 94W LIES IN A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT, ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE, IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
WINDFLOW THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO NEAR
20N. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS RELATIVELY ILL-
DEFINED, BUT ANIMATES SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
SERIES OF EARLIER PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL
LLCC IN FACT EXISTS UNDER FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 94W ARE UP TO 30 KNOTS OR EVEN A BIT
HIGHER IN THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT WINDS
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH THE
SYSTEM LYING UNDER AN AREA OF DIVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH A WEAK
TAP INTO SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND WARM (28-
29C) SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MONSOON GYRE WHICH IS SLOWING THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CORE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST, TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RYUKUS, SOUTH OF KYUSHU. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
MIXED, WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING DEVELOPING INTO A STRONG DEPRESSION
OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM, WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A CANCELLED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (INVEST 93W).
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2022 8:20 pm

06W SONGDA 220729 0000 28.0N 133.8E WPAC 30 998
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