EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Subtrop » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:25 am

EP, 98, 2022072612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1123W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, ep712022 to ep982022,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:47 am

Looking good.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:42 am

Image

Classifiable.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby zzh » Tue Jul 26, 2022 11:13 am

Image
Good structure but wind is not there yet. But no way this is a 10/10, more like 80/80
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:51 pm

South of Baja California peninsula:
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized since this morning.
Additional development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while it remains near stationary, and a tropical
depression could form during this time. After that, interaction
with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is expected to
prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 26, 2022 2:42 pm

`EP, 98, 2022072618, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1123W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, `
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:42 pm

South of Baja California peninsula:
Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Additional development of this system is possible during the next
day or so while it remains nearly stationary or drifts westward,
and a tropical depression could form during this time. After that,
interaction with Tropical Storm Frank to the east of this system is
expected to prevent further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:56 pm

EP, 98, 2022072700, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1128W, 25, 1008, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:30 pm

TXPZ29 KNES 262358
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98E)

B. 26/2330Z

C. 16.2N

D. 112.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. LLCC
EVIDENT ON VIS WITH GOOD UPR-LVL OUTFLOW NW AND SW QUADS. MET AND
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby zzh » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:31 am

08E.EIGHT
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#11 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:37 am

EP, 08, 2022072712, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1142W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 130, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, TRANSITIONED, epA82022 to ep082022,
zzh wrote:
08E.EIGHT
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:54 am

From the TS Frank discussion.

It should be noted that Frank and the newly-formed Tropical
Depression Eight-E are likely to come close enough to one another to
interact. The global models suggest that Frank will be the larger
and dominant system during this interaction, and that the depression
will have only minor impacts on the track and intensity of Frank.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:58 am

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2022

The area of low pressure we have been monitoring more than 500 miles
southwest of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become
better organized this morning. First light visible imagery shows
cold convective cloud tops near the estimated center that also
appear to be rotating cyclonically. While we haven't had any recent
C-band scatterometer passes near the center of this system, a
recent KU-band scatterometer showed plenty of non-rain contaminated
winds to help confirm that a closed circulation exists. Subjective
Dvorak classifications were up to T2.0/30-kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25-kt from SAB. A recently arriving SSMIS pass at 1159 UTC
also showed a well-defined curve band wrapping at least 75 percent
around the northwestern side of the system. All these data indicate
a new tropical depression has formed, and the initial intensity
will be set at 30 kt this advisory.

Currently the depression is moving westward at 275/6 kt. A large
deep-layer ridge is situated north of the cyclone which should steer
it on a general westward to west-southwestward heading over the next
day or so. Afterwards, the larger circulation of Tropical Storm
Frank is expected to get close enough to initiate binary interaction
with the depression. The net result of this interaction is that the
depression is likely to bend even more southward than the
larger-scale steering flow would initially suggest, and there is
some chance that Frank may capture the smaller depression. For now,
the track forecast keeps Frank and TD Eight-E separate, showing a
very slow west-northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast
period. This track forecast is roughly follows the TVCE aid early
on, but is slower later in the forecast period due to uncertainty
with interaction with Frank to the east. This initial track forecast
is of low confidence.

The intensity forecast is also challenging and strongly related to
how much interaction this depression has with the larger circulation
of Frank. Assuming the depression remains separate, environmental
conditions only appear marginally favorable for intensification in
the short-term, with moderate easterly vertical wind shear, and
plenty of nearby dry air that could get ingested into the small
circulation at any time. For these reasons, the intensity forecast
only shows modest intensification over the next 24-48 hours and
caps the storm at 40 kt thereafter due to uncertainty in its future
evolution near Frank. This is roughly in line with the latest SHIPS
guidance, but is lower than the HCCA and other consensus intensity
aids which are biased by the larger and stronger wind field of
Frank later on in the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.3N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 15.2N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 14.4N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 14.0N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.3N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:02 am

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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:18 pm

I don't think it's going to survive past the next 72 hrs.
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:31 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHT EP082022 07/27/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 43 44 48 52 56 58 57 54 51 48 47 45 43 42
V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 43 44 48 52 56 58 57 54 51 48 47 45 43 42
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 45 46 48 49 49 49 46 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 16 16 10 9 8 20 32 37 34 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 3 1 0 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 113 105 94 94 111 106 127 87 69 69 69 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 151 150 148 147 146 143 141 142 137 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 59 62 66 66 66 69 72 70 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 80 84 82 98 111 104 96 68 73 67 77 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 35 25 39 58 61 77 131 126 118 98 66 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 3 -2 -2 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 902 970 1040 1127 1215 1308 1346 1376 1372 1417 1483 1538 1574 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.6 15.1 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.0 119.5 120.0 121.1 122.5 123.7 124.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 6 3 2 3 4 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 16 17 17 17 16 13 10 10 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -13. -12. -12. -13. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 22. 19. 16. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.5 115.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082022 EIGHT 07/27/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 17.0% 15.8% 14.9% 8.7% 16.2% 15.5% 18.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 6.1% 3.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.9% 3.2% 5.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.3% 7.8% 6.4% 5.4% 3.2% 6.0% 6.3% 7.7%
DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082022 EIGHT 07/27/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:43 pm

TXPZ29 KNES 271818
TCSENP

A. 08E (NONAME)

B. 27/1730Z

C. 16.3N

D. 115.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A CIRCURLARLY DEFINED LLCC LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE SMALL
COLD OVERCAST RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE IRREGULAR AND PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Landy » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:44 pm

EP, 08, 2022072718, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1153W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 130, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
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Re: EPAC: EIGHT-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:36 pm

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Re: EPAC: GEORGETTE - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2022 3:58 pm

Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 27 2022

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon
remains well organized, albeit very compact. The well curved band
seen earlier this morning on microwave has evolved into a small
central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -75 C,
and the center estimated to be embedded within this cirrus canopy.
Dvorak satellite estimates from the various agencies were T2.5/35-kt
from TAFB, T2.0/30-kt from SAB, and T2.4/34-kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.
Unfortunately today's ASCAT swaths missed the small wind field of
the cyclone, but given the healthy structure seen on satellite
imagery and the higher subjective and objective estimates, the
initial intensity is set at 35-kt, upgrading Tropical Depression
Eight-E to Tropical Storm Georgette.

Georgette has been moving just north of due west today with the
motion estimated at 275/8 kt. For the first 24 hours, the storm's
motion is expected to gradually bend westward and then
west-southwestward as its influenced by a weak mid-level ridge
oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the cyclone. Afterwards,
the track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain and complex. As
mentioned previously, larger tropical storm Frank will be
approaching Georgette from the east, and its outer wind field will
likely have some influence on Georgette's motion. Subtle differences
in structure and distance between Frank and Georgette could have
large implications on how far westward Georgette gets in the 3-4 day
forecast period. This is illustrated by the most recent ECMWF
ensemble tracks, which show an across-track spread of more than 500
n mi in just 72 hours, which is roughly 5 times the average forecast
track error at that forecast period. To add to the uncertainty, the
GFS and UKMET models do not appear to capture the tiny vortex of
Georgette well in their most recent cycle, and quickly absorb it in
Frank's larger circulation. Favoring a solution that keeps Georgette
a separate entity, the latest track forecast leans more heavily on a
blend between the ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and Canadian, which
mostly keep Georgette as a coherent feature through the forecast
period. This track is further north of the previous track early on,
and also takes Georgette further west over the next 3 days.
Afterwards, The larger monsoonal flow that is expected to wrap up
into Frank's larger circulation will likely also capture Georgette,
and a sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is now predicted
at the end of the forecast period. This current track forecast
remains low confidence and larger-than normal adjustments may be
necessary if Frank ends up getting closer and exerting more
influence on Georgette's track than currently indicated here.

The intensity forecast also remains challenging, both due to the
small size of Georgette, and the looming potential for its
interaction with Frank located further east. Easterly vertical wind
shear of 10-15 knots is expected to continue for the next couple of
days as the storm traverses over 28-29 C sea surface temperatures in
a relatively dry mid-level environment. The small structure of
Georgette also hints at the the potential for rapid intensity
changes, both up or down. Assuming occasional dry-air entrainment
could occur, only gradual intensification is shown over the next 36
hours, peaking Georgette as a 50 kt tropical storm. After that time,
the outflow from Frank to its east may result in a more hostile
environment, and most of the intensity guidance levels off at that
time. At the end of the forecast, Georgette is expected to move over
cooler SSTs and even higher shear, which could begin a weakening
trend. The latest intensity forecast is a bit higher than the
previous cycle, but is in fairly good agreement with the latest HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast is also low
confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.5N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 15.6N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 15.2N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 14.8N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 14.6N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 14.6N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 15.3N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin
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