NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 29 2022
GOES-17 Proxy-Vis and enhanced IR imagery show that Georgette's
cloud pattern has become more symmetric with colder -77C inner core
cloud tops. An earlier AMSR2 revealed an eye-like feature in the
lower frequency band and a well-developed rain band in the north
part of the cyclone. The eye feature, however, was not evident in
the infrared presentation. Although the Dvorak subjective
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB haven't changed; the initial intensity
is increased to 50 kt in deference to the microwave image.
The global models and the statistical intensity guidance indicate
that the easterly shear will increase within 24 hours, causing
Georgette to weaken slowly. However, due to Georgette's compact
size, intensity fluctuations are possible in the short term. The
latest GFS run shows that Georgette could hang on a little longer
than the NHC forecast indicates, possibly as a post-tropical
cyclone. Therefore, adjusting the forecast may be deemed necessary
to extend the cyclone's life in subsequent advisories. The official
forecast is very close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity aids.
Georgette's initial motion is estimated to be just a bit south of
due west or 260/11 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge stretching
east-northeast to west-southwest should steer the small cyclone
west to west-southwestward during the next 48 hours. Afterward, a
reduction in forward speed along with a turn toward the northeast
is expected in response to larger Frank weakening the ridge and
disrupting the steering flow while passing to the northeast of
Georgette. Although the ECMWF global has been the best performer
in the eastern Pacific this season with respect to forecast track,
the model continues to initialize poorly the compact TC indicating
a significantly weaker system while remaining the left tracker
outlier. The GFS, however, now has a more accurate depiction of
the cyclone's size and vertical depth and shows a more direct
response to Frank's larger wind field. There still is quite a bit
of uncertainty in Georgette's future track as evident by the larger
than usual guidance spread, particularly after the northeast turn.
Consequently, this is a low confidence forecast. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but has been
adjusted to the left beyond that point to agree more with the HCCA
and GEFS/EPS ensemble member solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 13.9N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 13.7N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 14.0N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 14.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts