WPAC: TRASES - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: TRASES - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Jul 28, 2022 3:32 pm

95W INVEST 220728 1800 19.4N 131.1E WPAC 15 0

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:08 am, edited 3 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Jul 28, 2022 6:22 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 19N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:09 am

ABPW10 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290300Z-290600ZJUL2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZJUL2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 29JUL22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SONGDA) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.7N 136.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.2N 136.9E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.3N
130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345NM SSE OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LIES FAR TO THE
SOUTH, EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES ALONG AN AREA OF A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW AXIS, UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE. A 290050Z PARTIAL ASCAT-
B PASS CAPTURED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. INVEST 95W IS THE ANCHOR POINT OF A MONSOON GYRE FEATURE
WHICH IS MOVING TO THE NORTH, WITH A BROAD BAND OF ENHANCED WIND FLOW
TO THE SOUTH, EXTENDING UP TO THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMERATURES (SSTS), BUT AT PRESENT
OUTFLOW IS RELATIVELY RESTRICTED TO A WEAK EASTWARD OR POLEWARD FLOW,
WITH SOME PRESSURE COMING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE TO THE
SOUTHWEST IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW A BIT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK,
SUGGESTING 95W WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, MOVING OVER OR VERY NEAR OKINAWA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN
MOVING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. MODELS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN IN REGARDS
TO INTENSITY. FIRSTLY, GFS IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A DISCRETE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA AROUND
TAU 60, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH LESS
INTENSIFICATION. SECONDLY, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE BAND OF NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WHICH
WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD AS 95W MOVES NORTH, ULTIMATELY EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN KOREA ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES BY TAU 72,
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
WARNING STATUS. DISSIPATED AREA IN 1.B.(2). UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(3)
TO LOW.//
NNNN

WWJP27 RJTD 290000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:13 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:39 am

Hayabusa wrote:
95W INVEST 220728 1800 19.4N 131.1E WPAC 15 0

https://i.imgur.com/VTkFQrt.jpg

Why is this Songda? This is TD 95W. I don't remember editing the main title to be that.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#6 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:05 pm

PaGASA doesn't strengthen "ESTER" much beyond 30 knots.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#7 Postby Subtrop » Fri Jul 29, 2022 9:33 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 21.1N 127.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#8 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:44 pm

King JMA just named a trough again :lol:
Last edited by zzh on Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#9 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:53 pm

Yep apparently this is Trases now. Obviously this one won't get strong at all, looks like it's probably not even a legit TC. JTWC has it at 15kts
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#10 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:54 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

#11 Postby Teban54 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:06 am

Seeing this and Songda being named, after people complained for 2 years about NHC naming "borderline" systems in the Atlantic, feels kind of ironic...
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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#12 Postby NotoSans » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:13 am

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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#13 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:14 am

I think it's my first time seeing JMA upgraded to a named storm at intermediate time 0300.

WTPQ21 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2206 TRASES (2206) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 26.6N 127.7E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 33.3N 126.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:23 am

Trases had TS winds a day before JMA upgraded it. They named it as it weakened below TS strength. Late on Trases, early on Songda. Both are TDs now, though JMA can't let either go as a TS, despite ASCAT indicating winds below 35 kts now.
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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby NotoSans » Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:46 am

Latest quality-controlled ASCAT still finds several 35KT wind barbs to the east, with a significant better-defined and closed circulation. There is no problem with JMA naming this system, and JTWC should have initiated warnings.
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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Jul 31, 2022 4:46 pm

LLC is now obvious on visible imagery, seemingly eliminating all doubt about Trases' status as a tropical cyclone. JTWC will likely initiate warnings soon imo.
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Re: WPAC: TRASES - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:54 pm

JTWC initiated warnings. They'll probably move up the formation time in the final post-season best track

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