WPAC: 08W - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: 08W - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:47 pm

96W INVEST 220801 1800 20.4N 118.6E WPAC 15 0


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Last edited by Hayabusa on Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:00 pm

Latest GFS 12Z hypes this as a TS, while Euro barely a TD
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 02, 2022 2:50 am

EPS 00Z seems to have decreased, and the yet to be Philippine Sea system is now more interesting
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:40 am

BPW10 PGTW 021230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021230Z-030600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.4N 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 119.6E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS NO DISCERNABLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BENEATH
THE DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND
EAST QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED SHARP
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING IN THE AREA, BUT NO DISTINCT CLOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020905Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE SPECULATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 30-31C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A DROP IN THE 24 HOUR SHEAR TENDENCY AND INCREASES
IN 850MB VORTICITY FURTHER ADD TO THE VALUE OF DEVELOPMENT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A DISTINCT
CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR
AS IT TAKES A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. GFS IS THE USUAL AGGRESSOR HERE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT WITH IT REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 24-36 HOURS WHILE
ECMWF AGREES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACKS A
DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND FIELD. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT
TIGHT TRACK AND INTENSITY GROUPINGS, WHICH PROVIDES INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND LEND SUPPORT FOR UPGRADING OF 96W TO A LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO LOW.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:44 am

06Z
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:50 am

It’s gonna be another slop if it forms. Hopefully things pick up in September.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:45 am

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAUG2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.4N 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 192 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BENEATH DEEP BUT
STILL DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRRUS BLOW OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. A 030227Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLC
FORMING WITH 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST,
SUGGESTING A MORE CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND 30-31C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FUNNELING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS
DOWN THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ALSO IMPARTING SOME INCREASED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND LIMITED TIME
REMAINING OVER WATER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 96W WILL RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA. GFS IS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT WITH IT
REACHING TD STRENGTH WITHIN 12-24 HOURS WHILE ECMWF AND NAVGEM AGREE ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULATION CENTER BUT LACK A DEPRESSION STRENGTH WIND
FIELD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:54 am

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 030930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 117.8E TO 24.1N 115.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2N 117.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.8N 117.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) BURIED BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND CIRRUS BLOW
OFF OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF INVEST 96W. A 030806Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TOWARDS AN IMPROVING, IF SOMEWHAT STILL ILL DEFINED LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 30-31C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FUNNELING OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE TAIWAN
STRAIT IS ALSO IMPARTING SOME INCREASED CYCLONIC VORTICITY, HELPING THE
LLCC TO CONSOLIDATE AND DECREASING THE TIMELINE OF DEVELOPMENT. LAND
PROXIMITY HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A FACTOR IN SLOWING DOWN THE SPEED OF
INTENSIFICATION BUT WILL PROVE A HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN ITS LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AN IMMINENT TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG IN
THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHORT PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY RAPID DISSIPATION
ONCE ASHORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040930Z.
//
NNNN


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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:57 am

:lol: :x :lol:

Songda and Trases were not so impressive to JTWC but now, 96W is not so impressive to JMA :lol:
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:31 am

WWJP90 RJTD 031200
EGC:2:1:31:11:01:00
SECURITE.
THIS WARNING IS ISSUED FOR NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 100E IN
METAREA XI BY JMA.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 55N 177E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING ENE 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 55N 177E TO 57N 179W 58N 176W.
WARM FRONT FROM 58N 176W TO 57N 167W 55N 158W.
COLD FRONT FROM 58N 176W TO 53N 173W 45N 180E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 45N 180E TO 44N 176E 43N 172E 40N 168E 39N 165E
38N 163E 38N 159E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
300 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 37N 141E 40N 142E
42N 141E 47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 38N 180E 37N 170E 37N
160E 37N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 38N 145E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 39N 151E EAST 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 27N 136E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 48N 163E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 126E TO 41N 132E 41N 134E 40N 137E 40N 139E
38N 141E 37N 142E 38N 145E 37N 148E 36N 150E.

HONG KONG METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE PROVIDES THE FOLLOWING
WARNING/INFORMATION FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

WARNINGS
TD OVER NE PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS): NIL.
SYNOPSIS (031200UTC) AND 24-HOUR FORECAST
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE PART OF THE SCS HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A TD. AT 031200UTC, TD WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1002 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KT WAS CENTERED
WITHIN 90 NM OF 21.6N 117.1E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AT
ABOUT 8 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION AT 041200UTC: 23.1N, 113.7E
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:59 pm

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 96W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:25 pm

WWJP27 RJTD 031800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22N 116E NNW SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: WPAC: 08W EIGHT - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:41 pm

JTWC upgrades to TD.

08W EIGHT 220804 0000 22.5N 115.1E WPAC 25 1003
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Re: WPAC: 08W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 03, 2022 9:02 pm

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