EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Hurricane

#81 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:35 pm

EP, 09, 2022081000, , BEST, 0, 229N, 1180W, 60, 994, TS
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters.
Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is
confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity
dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into
that portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is nudged
downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.

Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over
progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These
factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near
the IVCN and HCCA models.

Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to
the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial
position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:45 am

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Deep convection in the northern semicircle has continued to slowly
decrease in depth and coverage while Howard moves over cooler
waters. As a result, the objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have reduced and the initial intensity estimate
has been lower to 55 kt. Steady weakening is expected to continue
as the cyclone approaches sea surface temperatures cooler than 24
degrees C and moves into an increasingly dry and stable environment.
These oceanic and atmospheric factors should cause Howard to
degenerate into a remnant low in about a day and a half. The
official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and now shows
Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt around a
subtropical ridge. Howard is expected to turn west-northwestward
later today followed by westward on Thursday when the weaker, more
shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous official prediction and
close to model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 23.5N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.9N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.4N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/1800Z 24.8N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 24.9N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 24.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:46 am

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Howard's deep convection continues to steadily decrease, both in
terms of extent and magnitude (as indicated by warming cloud top
temperatures). A blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and
the UW-CIMSS SATCON support lowering the analyzed intensity to 50 kt
for this advisory. Continued weakening appears inevitable as Howard
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
surrounding environment. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF all indicate that
Howard will lose its remaining deep convection by the end of today,
and this is reflected in the official forecast which shows the
cyclone as post-tropical in 24 h.

Howard has turned west-northwestward, with an initial forward speed
of 9 kt. A gradual westward turn is expected over the next day or
so as the cyclone is increasingly steered by low-level easterly
flow. No changes of note were made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains based on the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.5N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 24.8N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 24.9N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 24.8N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:39 am

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:41 pm

Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade
this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports
lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard
should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire
any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of
convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official
forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the
next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone
should open into a remnant trough by 60 h.

Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward
speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next
two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were
made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde
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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:37 pm

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Re: EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

#88 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:37 pm

Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

The last bit of deep convection near Howard's center faded around
the time of this morning's advisory, about 12 hours ago. Since the
center is now moving over waters colder than 22 degrees Celsius,
it's very unlikely that significant deep convection will reignite,
and Howard has therefore degenerated into a post-tropical low.
The low is still likely producing gale-force winds, which are
estimated to be as high as 40 kt based on a gradual spin down of
the circulation and the latest satellite estimates. Gales could
continue for another 6-12 hours as the system weakens over cold
water, and global models are in general agreement that the remnant
low will dissipate in 2-3 days.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.
Howard's remnant circulation is expected to turn westward and slow
down a bit during the next 24 hours, continuing that motion until
dissipation. The previous forecast lies along the northern edge of
the 00z track guidance envelope, and because of that, the new (and
final) NHC forecast has been pushed southward, close to the GFS and
TVCE consensus solutions.

For additional information on the post-tropical low, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 24.1N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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