ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

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Hammy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#161 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:27 pm



Whether it's at cloud level or surface is yet to be seen.

One thing I have to point out, several people have compared this year to 1999--if this gets named today, it'll be to the day when Bret did, in the same location.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#162 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:29 pm

The FL winds haven't changed direction at all so far

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#163 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:29 pm

aspen wrote: It’s having barometer data transmission issues, it seems. There haven’t been any pressure readings in 15 minutes or so.


Not gonna lie, this is funny.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#164 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:32 pm

SoupBone wrote:
aspen wrote: It’s having barometer data transmission issues, it seems. There haven’t been any pressure readings in 15 minutes or so.


Not gonna lie, this is funny.
Hopefully they get some new barometers from the new funding they just got. Maintenance issues have plagued recon for 2 years now...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#165 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:33 pm

aspen wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Given FL winds of 30 kts or less, those 35-40kt 10-second SFMR winds are not likely representative of sustained winds above 30 kts at the surface. Still waiting to see if the plane can find a circulation.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that spike of 35-40kt SFMR was during the plane’s descent. I think I recall similar SFMR spikes right before the plane reaches operational altitude.


You are correct. Probably not a good representation since plane was descending. Now at 142 meters. Plane is almost through all of the convection and still SE-SSE wind.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#166 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:34 pm

skyline385 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
aspen wrote:It’s having barometer data transmission issues, it seems. There haven’t been any pressure readings in 15 minutes or so.


Not gonna lie, this is funny.
Hopefully they get some new barometers from the new funding they just got. Maintenance issues have plagued recon for 2 years now...

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When I saw 924mb at 1378ft...I was thinking I was missing a digit on the end of the altitude
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#167 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:35 pm

wxman57 wrote:
aspen wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Given FL winds of 30 kts or less, those 35-40kt 10-second SFMR winds are not likely representative of sustained winds above 30 kts at the surface. Still waiting to see if the plane can find a circulation.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that spike of 35-40kt SFMR was during the plane’s descent. I think I recall similar SFMR spikes right before the plane reaches operational altitude.


You are correct. Probably not a good representation since plane was descending. Now at 142 meters.


Isn't sub 500ft kind of low to be flying?

They are now pretty close to where I think a center might be...next set of obs will be there
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#168 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:36 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
aspen wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that spike of 35-40kt SFMR was during the plane’s descent. I think I recall similar SFMR spikes right before the plane reaches operational altitude.


You are correct. Probably not a good representation since plane was descending. Now at 142 meters.


Isn't sub 500ft kind of low to be flying?


Not for a disturbance or weak TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#169 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
You are correct. Probably not a good representation since plane was descending. Now at 142 meters.


Isn't sub 500ft kind of low to be flying?


Not for a disturbance or weak TD.

I was thinking just in general. I don't recall seeing them fly that low
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#170 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:39 pm

Looks mid level to me. Just what I see on vis. Don’t see any west inflow from the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#171 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:43 pm

Plane found an area of very light winds near 20.4N/94.8W, which is southwest of the convection. No center beneath the convection. Next report should indicate a NE wind.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#172 Postby zzh » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#173 Postby skyline385 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:47 pm

They are almost entirely out and still no NE wind

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#174 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:50 pm

I stand corrected, definitely no defined LLC so far, but I am sure there is going to be some westerly winds further south :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#175 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:50 pm

Looks like a wave axis. Satellite can be quite deceiving.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#176 Postby zzh » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:51 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#177 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:59 pm

Yeah still a wave, unless there’s a tiny LLC in an unexpected spot recon hasn’t sampled yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#178 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:01 pm

How much time does it realistically have to get a name now? I wonder if they'll lower its development chances too, not that it really matters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#179 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:12 pm

skyline385 wrote:They are almost entirely out and still no NE wind

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The red 30 mph wind barbs in the ASCAT are just the shear from the southwest combined with the flow north up the east side of the wave. So maybe just a TD coming into TEX/Mex border?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#180 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:16 pm

SoupBone wrote:How much time does it realistically have to get a name now? I wonder if they'll lower its development chances too, not that it really matters.

Probably 24-30 hours, maybe 36 hours at the absolute most. Still possibly enough time to get Danielle out of this.
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