ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I really hope this avoids getting named.

[skyline385]

PTC 4 has an eye now! We got a minimum of Cat 3 on our hands here

[MHC Tracking]

PTC 4 has an eye now! We got a minimum of Cat 3 on our hands here

https://i.imgur.com/ApeWm2t.png

Maybe it'll be the closest we get to one for a while

[wxman57]

I'm no longer seeing much talk here about how bad the models were with this system by not developing a TS. Its best shot at developing may have passed. Shear increases from now to landfall. It did look more impressive yesterday. Probably not going to make it to a strong TS or hurricane in the next 12 hours before it moves inland. Recon finding only SE-S winds. Not even much of a wave axis so far.

[NDG]

Enough for an upgrade? Seems broad and elongated.

[NDG]

No doubt the circulation is closed, question is if it is defined enough.

[SoupBone]

No doubt the circulation is closed, question is if it is defined enough.

https://i.imgur.com/f0vjXxh.jpg

They better not waste a name on this thing.

[wxman57]

Nope, not well defined enough to call it a TD. Broad, weak swirl is all the plane found. No convergence toward any center. Winds all blowing away from the weak swirl. Swirl is nearly on the coast already, too.

[NDG]

No doubt the circulation is closed, question is if it is defined enough.

https://i.imgur.com/f0vjXxh.jpg

They better not waste a name on this thing.

Though it only has a few hours over water I am sure they can go ahead and name it because it will become better organized inland like the rest of the systems have done

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yeah not seeing much in the way of a cohesive low level circulation right now with this thing. Time is ticking, doesn't have much time before it runs out of real estate. If it does somehow manage to pull a rabbit out of its hat it'll be a TD at most.

[wx98]

Interesting system. So the models not doing anything with this weren’t wrong.

[SoupBone]

Interesting system. So the models not doing anything with this weren’t wrong.

So far, no. Looks like the models were correct.

[Iceresistance]

This is one of the most oddball situations I've ever seen with a system like PTC 4.

It's not taking advantage of the very warm waters despite low wind shear (It has increased on Satellite, but I'm thinking that it's not limiting it.), there is not much dry air either, there must be something else going on.

[Kingarabian]

Story of the season I guess. Models are right when there's no development, and wrong when they show development.

[Iceresistance]

Chances of development now down to 60% (Orange).

[SoupBone]

Chances of development now down to 60% (Orange).

Probably going to drop to 40% for the next update.

[ElectricStorm]

Down to 60/60. Looks like this is going to become the third PTC to not become a TC, joining PTC 10 in 2017 and PTC 17E in 2019

[cycloneye]

Danielle will have to wait.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images
indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico
remains disorganized.

The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear
to be decreasing.

[al78]

This is one of the most oddball situations I've ever seen with a system like PTC 4.

It's not taking advantage of the very warm waters despite low wind shear (It has increased on Satellite, but I'm thinking that it's not limiting it.), there is not much dry air either, there must be something else going on.

Theme of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season since 1st August.

[Steve]

Juicing up as the cloud tops rise. As linked yesterday, the system is heading straight for a rain area in MJO Phase 1 regardless of classification.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir