ATL: FOUR - Advisories

[cycloneye]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042022
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
* THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 94.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Texas coast
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern
Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night.

Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is
expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8
inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern
portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible across far south Texas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system is forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure
area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better
organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt.
However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that
the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make
landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are
being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical
Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance
is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general
northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and
the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.

The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical
shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow
continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the
official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt
near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models
do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if
they are correct any development could be slower than currently
forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it
is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming
over western and northern Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.

2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of
Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into
early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far
south Texas during the day on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 94.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.3 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico
on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through landfall, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high ...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8
inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern
portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible across far south Texas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 95.2W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 95.2 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. The
disturbance is expected to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico
on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected through landfall, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, along
the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state
of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through
Saturday. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches will be possible in South Texas
through Saturday night with continuing uncertainty in how far north
and west these amounts will be realized. The potential exists for
life-threatening mudslides in the mountains of Mexico and
life-threatening flash flooding elsewhere along the track of the
PTC Four.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi




Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the
system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and
is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is
estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep
convection. Since there has been little change in organization
after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data.

The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in
northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its
northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus
model guidance.

Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall.
Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the
next day or so, which should limit future organization and
strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the
coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is
slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the
system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours
near the Texas/Mexico border.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.

2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and
Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also
move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing
local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADING TOWARD THE TAMAULIPAS MEXICO COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 95.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.8 North, longitude 95.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is
expected to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico late this
afternoon and then move across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance could still strengthen slightly and become a
tropical storm today before reaching the coast of northeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning
area beginning this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along
the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state
of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through
today. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in South Texas
through Sunday morning, with continuing uncertainty in how far north
and west these amounts will be realized. The potential exists for
flash flooding elsewhere along the track of the disturbance.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

We have a much better view of the low clouds on the western side
of the disturbance in proxy-visible satellite imagery than we did
last evening when they were obscured by high-level cirrus, and the
low clouds' south-to-north motion just off the coast of Mexico
suggests that the disturbance still does not have a closed surface
circulation. However, a mid-level circulation remains evident and
is the focus of a recent resurgence in deep convection. It is
assumed that the maximum winds in the system are still 30 kt, but
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight scheduled for later this
morning should give us a better idea of the disturbance's structure
and intensity.

The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt, and model
guidance is in fairly good agreement that a steady northwestward or
north-northwestward motion should continue for the next 24 hours or
so. This trajectory should bring the system inland near or just
south of the mouth of the Rio Grande late this afternoon or evening,
which is the same scenario that has been indicated in previous
advisories.

There remains uncertainty if the disturbance will be able to
develop a closed surface circulation--and become a tropical
cyclone--before it reaches the coast later today. At best, the
global models are resolving a well-defined vorticity maximum at
about 5000 ft above the surface and perhaps a surface trough near
the coast of Mexico, but none of them explicitly show the
development of a well-defined surface circulation. As long as deep
convection continues, however, it could spur the development of a
surface center before reaching the coast. That said, the new NHC
forecast now only shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 35
kt, which is still above all of the guidance. A remnant low
position is provided at 36 hours for continuity, but it's more
likely that the system will have dissipated by then--if it even
forms at all.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and
Nuevo Leon, today. This rainfall may produce flash flooding.
Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday
morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 22.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/1800Z 24.4N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.2 North, longitude 96.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward to
north-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected
to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico late this afternoon and
then move across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance could still strengthen slightly and become a
tropical storm later today before reaching the coast of northeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning
area beginning this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along
the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern portions of the state
of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas to Nuevo Leon through
today. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in South Texas
through Sunday morning, with continuing uncertainty in how far north
and west these amounts will be realized. The potential exists for
flash flooding elsewhere along the track of the disturbance.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE HEADED TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 96.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 23.6 North, longitude 96.4 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue, bringing the system across northeastern
Mexico and southern Texas this evening through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance could still strengthen slightly and become a
tropical storm later today before reaching the coast of northeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).




Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images
indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico
remains disorganized. Flight-level wind data confirms that the
system is still a surface trough that is not far offshore of the
Gulf coast of Mexico. It should be noted that the initial position
in the advisory is based on extrapolation of the mid-level center.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the aircraft data and
Dvorak estimates.

The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear
to be decreasing. Regardless of the system's status, the overall
impacts are expected to be the same. Winds to tropical storm force
and heavy rains are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico
and southern Texas later today and continue into Sunday. After the
system moves inland, quick weakening is expected and the
disturbance is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night over southern
Texas.

The overall envelope of the shower and thunderstorm activity is
moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is expected to
continue until the system dissipates in 24 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and
Nuevo Leon, today. This rainfall may produce flash flooding.
Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday
morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 23.6N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.1 North, longitude 96.9 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue, bringing the system across northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas this evening through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance could still strengthen slightly and become a
short-lived tropical storm before reaching the coast of northeastern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.4 North, longitude 97.3 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue, bringing the system across northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some development is possible during the next few hours, but
the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone are
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).



Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Satellite images, surface observations, and a recent ASCAT-B pass
indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized
this afternoon and still resembles a surface trough with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value.

The chances of this system becoming a tropical storm continue to
decrease as the trough is expected to move inland this evening.
Even though the system will probably fall short of becoming a
tropical cyclone, the expected impacts are unchanged as heavy rains
and winds to tropical storm force, especially in gusts, are expected
to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the
next several hours. After landfall, the disturbance is expected to
weaken and dissipate on Sunday.

The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt on the
southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and that motion should
continue until the system dissipates on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this
evening and tonight, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect.

2. Rain from the disturbance are beginning to affect the
northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas. This
rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could
also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of
South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected
there.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 24.4N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND.....
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 97.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande
* The Lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.6 North, longitude 97.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue, bringing the system across northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some development could occur during the next few hours, but
the chances of this system becoming a tropical cyclone are
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning
area during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches, along
the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas
today. These rains could produce isolated flash flooding across
coastal northeast Mexico. Rainfall amounts of less than an inch are
expected farther to the north across far South Texas.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX... up to 1 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico
near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas through early Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

...DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS ENDED...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES



Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data indicate
that the main vorticity center of the disturbance has moved inland
over northeastern Mexico and the associated convection has
decreased. Based on this, the chance for development has ended and
the coastal warnings are being discontinued. Therefore, this will
be the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on
this system can be found in statements from local Weather Forecast
Offices in the United States and from the Meteorological Service of
Mexico.

The disturbance should move north-northwestward for the next 12 h
or so before it becomes absorbed in a larger weather system
developing over Texas.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Locally gusty winds may occur in squalls over portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas tonight.

2. Rain from the disturbance should affect the northeastern coast
of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas tonight and Sunday. This
rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could
also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of
South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected
there.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 25.3N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1200Z 26.7N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven