WPAC: TOKAGE - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#21 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:49 pm

New JTWC forecast has this becoming a 100kt major. Looks well on its way to me with the eye clearing out
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:59 pm

TPPN12 PGTW 231819

A. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE)

B. 23/1720Z

C. 32.79N

D. 148.62E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS


Not sure why this thread is dead. We have our first major candidate in weeks.

Also rare(?) JTWC W with this Dvorak fix.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#23 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:00 pm

Looks like it’s already a major. The CDO is incredibly smoothed out now and the eye continues to warm. Probably the strongest it’s gonna get, since it’s time in a favorable environment is quite limited.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#24 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:24 pm

11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:34 pm

Lol this is very easily 100kt+.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:08 pm

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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#27 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:44 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963

Classic JTWC. If they had to track Darby instead of the NHC, they might’ve gone with 90-100kt just like Tokage because of their very similar CDO temperatures and structures.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:15 pm

aspen wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963

Classic JTWC. If they had to track Darby instead of the NHC, they might’ve gone with 90-100kt just like Tokage because of their very similar CDO temperatures and structures.

May need to upgrade it in a post-season analysis.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:33 pm

11W TOKAGE 220824 0000 34.1N 148.6E WPAC 95 956
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon

#30 Postby doomhaMwx » Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:23 am

JTWC revised the peak intensity to 100kts at 00Z.
11W TOKAGE 220824 1200 36.2N 149.6E WPAC 80 965
11W TOKAGE 220824 0600 35.2N 149.0E WPAC 90 959
11W TOKAGE 220824 0000 34.1N 148.6E WPAC 100 952
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 32.9N 148.6E WPAC 95 959


Looks like the exact peak was at ~21Z:

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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Aug 25, 2022 10:26 am

JTWC has issued the final warning, system rapidly becoming post tropical.
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