EPAC: Ex INVEST 91E

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EPAC: Ex INVEST 91E

#1 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:41 pm

91E INVEST 220821 1800 17.5N 112.4W EPAC 25 1012
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:05 pm

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some
additional development of this system is possible over the next
couple of days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, well
offshore of the coast of Mexico. By midweek, cooler waters and dry
air should end the chance for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:26 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912022 08/21/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 46 51 53 53 53 52 51 50 48 47
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 46 51 53 53 53 52 51 50 48 47
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 33 34 33 33 32 32 31 29 27 24 21 19
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 4 7 12 18 13 10 9 7 7 9 10 10 13 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 1 -3 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 232 208 210 107 93 103 88 100 73 136 203 181 211 209 230 212 227
SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.6 26.8 26.2 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.3 23.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 144 143 140 139 135 139 131 125 117 113 109 108 104 97
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 68 66 64 67 67 66 62 62 59 56 54 50 47 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -4 4 10 9 15 18 25 27 13 15 18 13 0 -7 -6 2 -11
200 MB DIV 0 8 21 15 14 29 38 36 25 3 -1 15 -6 0 3 -15 -4
700-850 TADV 4 2 1 3 4 -1 1 1 0 1 3 0 4 2 4 6 6
LAND (KM) 650 634 657 706 760 878 994 1105 1198 1315 1446 1535 1654 1792 1941 2067 2058
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.3 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.3 114.1 114.9 115.6 116.8 118.0 119.3 120.6 122.2 124.0 125.9 128.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 9 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 9 9 12 14 12 8 10 15 22 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 21. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. 26. 25. 23. 22.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 112.4

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/21/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 5.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 12.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 11.4% 24.0% 17.6% 9.6% 5.0% 11.5% 5.2% 5.8%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 3.8% 14.9% 11.7% 3.2% 1.7% 8.9% 6.0% 2.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/21/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:58 pm

1. Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development and a tropical depression could from over the
next couple of days as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico. By midweek,
less favorable environmental conditions should limit further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:24 am

Great spin on this. Circulation is so well defined you can see it on IR imagery. If it can maintain convection, will likely be classified.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:38 am

ASCAT had a weak trough earlier.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:42 am

Image
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