ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.


Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#42 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.


Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IIGrHhm.gif


Is it possible that this second spin now near 38W is being developed on any model runs/by any ensemble members? Anyone know?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#43 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:14 pm

0 likes   

St0rmTh0r
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 369
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#44 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
aspen wrote:If it develops/tracks north of the GAs, we could have a big problem. Look at the extent of 29.5-30C SSTs in the region. I don't recall 2020 or 2021 having 30C SSTs extending all the way to 30N, or that much near Bermuda. Lots of prime real estate for a system to RI dangerously close to land if other conditions are okay, and most recent runs have sent 90L right into this area.
https://i.imgur.com/q6zCQOZ.png

Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.


You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming. ;-)

not to go against what youre saying but what about a boiling pot of water? Cant get that from cold water?
0 likes   

St0rmTh0r
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 369
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#45 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Aug 22, 2022 9:36 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.


You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming. ;-)

not to go against what youre saying but im sure if the ocean was boiled the entire atmosphere would be overflowing with convection
1 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#46 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:16 am

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMAX where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic.
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#47 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:19 am

LarryWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.


Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IIGrHhm.gif


Is it possible that this second spin now near 38W is being developed on any model runs/by any ensemble members? Anyone know?

Last week, the GFS was showing competing vort's in regards to this wave. This is probably it.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#48 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:56 am

LarryWx wrote:Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMIN where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic.

Considering models are in good agreement that it won't develop until at least north of the islands, this doesn't seem surprising.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#49 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:17 am

Image
Image
NHC has the 2am yellow "X" around 16N/36W. Clear mid level circulation around 14.5N/39W. Scattered convection popping this morning, but still very disorganized.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9856
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#50 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2022 6:41 am

Image
Image

90L giving us a little 0% pulse... :D
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05...
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#51 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:59 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming. ;-)

not to go against what youre saying but im sure if the ocean was boiled the entire atmosphere would be overflowing with convection


That would not matter if wind shear is too high for development. A warm ocean can only contribute to the intensity of a tropical cyclone, it cannot generate one.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:01 am

They are down to 14.5N at 12z.

AL, 90, 2022082312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 365W, 20, 1010, DB


Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#53 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 23, 2022 9:07 am

NHC TWO down to 0%/10% as of 8AM EDT after being as high as 10%/30% yesterday. Continuing to look more anemic to me vs early yesterday morning when there was a ball of convection near a circulation center at DMAX. DMAX early this morning was very unimpressive. Apparently that nearby SAL is close enough to help to keep this in check:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hurricane Mike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 562
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:44 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#54 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:28 am

This one might well be the wave that moistens the Central Atlantic to allow upcoming waves a better environment.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#55 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:44 pm

Goodbye

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this system is not expected during the next
several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2620
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#56 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Aug 23, 2022 2:55 pm

Development not expected during the next several days...but what about after that?
1 likes   
"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests