ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

[toad strangler]

It’s starting to get that look . It looks like this should become Danielle .

Looks like a mess to me. This will need to float on downstream for quite awhile (5 days or longer) before finding greener pastures if at all. But, it's def something to track and the calendar demands attention to it.

[LarryWx]

It’s starting to get that look . It looks like this should become Danielle .

Looks like a mess to me. This will need to float on downstream for quite awhile (5 days or longer) before finding greener pastures if at all. But, it's def something to track and the calendar demands attention to it.

Yeah it is very early and convection will likely wane (like it is now doing) and wax for the next several days.

So far, it continues to remain largely separated from the nearby strong SAL as they both move westward (this as of 11 AM EDT today):

[Nimbus]

The southwestern end of the wave may cling to the ITCZ moisture if the northeastern side can't develop and break away.

[sma10]

That TUTT could end up being a bad thing if all it does is delay development until this is close to land, and the ridge builds back.

Lol, yeah seems this comes up every year. Remember: if you don't want a landfalling hurricane, early development is good, as deeper steering increases likelihood of early recurve.

Delayed development, tutt-problems, etc can often result in a sad, decrepit weakling that limps westward, only to take off much closer to land

[AtlanticWind]

That TUTT could end up being a bad thing if all it does is delay development until this is close to land, and the ridge builds back.

Lol, yeah seems this comes up every year. Remember: if you don't want a landfalling hurricane, early development is good, as deeper steering increases likelihood of early recurve.

Delayed development, tutt-problems, etc can often result in a sad, decrepit weakling that limps westward, only to take off much closer to land

I saw on twitter a Brian McNoldy post showing the four Cat 5 storms that hit the U.S. (1935,Camille,Andrew,Michael)
were all tropical storms 72 hours before landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

That TUTT could end up being a bad thing if all it does is delay development until this is close to land, and the ridge builds back.

Lol, yeah seems this comes up every year. Remember: if you don't want a landfalling hurricane, early development is good, as deeper steering increases likelihood of early recurve.

Delayed development, tutt-problems, etc can often result in a sad, decrepit weakling that limps westward, only to take off much closer to land

I saw on twitter a Brian McNoldy post showing the four Cat 5 storms that hit the U.S. (1935,Camille,Andrew,Michael)
were all tropical storms 72 hours before landfall.

The 1935 Labor Day hurricane was an absolute unexpected menace. Imagine a struggling wave making it all the way to the Bahamas and then slowing down, only to blow up into a 185 mph/892 mbar hurricane right as it hit Florida. I think the fact that that storm alone happened should always remind those who brush off waves that cannot form in the MDR as amounting to anything significant otherwise. Same goes for storms like Katrina, Rita, Ida, and the other 3 Cat 5 CONUS landfalls. With that being said, I'm definitely watching this system, considering all of that latent, untapped warm waters that this system is expected to head toward and the time of the year.

[sma10]

That TUTT could end up being a bad thing if all it does is delay development until this is close to land, and the ridge builds back.

Lol, yeah seems this comes up every year. Remember: if you don't want a landfalling hurricane, early development is good, as deeper steering increases likelihood of early recurve.

Delayed development, tutt-problems, etc can often result in a sad, decrepit weakling that limps westward, only to take off much closer to land

I saw on twitter a Brian McNoldy post showing the four Cat 5 storms that hit the U.S. (1935,Camille,Andrew,Michael)
were all tropical storms 72 hours before landfall.

The Labor Day was still a tropical storm in the central bahamas, which is quite stunning

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
today in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system while it moves westward
to west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph across the tropical
Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto

[InfernoFlameCat]

This wave has a good MLC going on right now. This should help the system in retaining structure through DMIN. I think this one could be a troublemaker down the road.

[ElectricStorm]

90L INVEST 220822 1800 16.3N 31.0W ATL 25 1010

[AtlanticWind]

A lot would have to happen, but if this does reach the S.E. bahamas as a resonable disturbance
and if conditions are favorable at that point it can become a concern.

Remember what Pre storm Katrina went through before things came together in the Bahamas.

[zal0phus]

Lol, yeah seems this comes up every year. Remember: if you don't want a landfalling hurricane, early development is good, as deeper steering increases likelihood of early recurve.

Delayed development, tutt-problems, etc can often result in a sad, decrepit weakling that limps westward, only to take off much closer to land

I saw on twitter a Brian McNoldy post showing the four Cat 5 storms that hit the U.S. (1935,Camille,Andrew,Michael)
were all tropical storms 72 hours before landfall.

The 1935 Labor Day hurricane was an absolute unexpected menace. Imagine a struggling wave making it all the way to the Bahamas and then slowing down, only to blow up into a 185 mph/892 mbar hurricane right as it hit Florida. I think the fact that that storm alone happened should always remind those who brush off waves that cannot form in the MDR as amounting to anything significant otherwise. Same goes for storms like Katrina, Rita, Ida, and the other 3 Cat 5 CONUS landfalls. With that being said, I'm definitely watching this system, considering all of that latent, untapped warm waters that this system is expected to head toward and the time of the year.

Imagine if we had this forum during that storm. It would've all been "oh this wave is going to do nothing" until that's refuted in the single worst way possible within a few hours at most

[AtlanticWind]

I saw on twitter a Brian McNoldy post showing the four Cat 5 storms that hit the U.S. (1935,Camille,Andrew,Michael)
were all tropical storms 72 hours before landfall.

The 1935 Labor Day hurricane was an absolute unexpected menace. Imagine a struggling wave making it all the way to the Bahamas and then slowing down, only to blow up into a 185 mph/892 mbar hurricane right as it hit Florida. I think the fact that that storm alone happened should always remind those who brush off waves that cannot form in the MDR as amounting to anything significant otherwise. Same goes for storms like Katrina, Rita, Ida, and the other 3 Cat 5 CONUS landfalls. With that being said, I'm definitely watching this system, considering all of that latent, untapped warm waters that this system is expected to head toward and the time of the year.

Imagine if we had this forum during that storm. It would've all been "oh this wave is going to do nothing" until that's refuted in the single worst way possible within a few hours at most

I would have to think the models today would be jumping on development days before
It had to be coming into ideal upper level conditions.

[St0rmTh0r]

If it develops/tracks north of the GAs, we could have a big problem. Look at the extent of 29.5-30C SSTs in the region. I don't recall 2020 or 2021 having 30C SSTs extending all the way to 30N, or that much near Bermuda. Lots of prime real estate for a system to RI dangerously close to land if other conditions are okay, and most recent runs have sent 90L right into this area.
https://i.imgur.com/q6zCQOZ.png

Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.

[LarryWx]

Looking at the closeup IR sat loop shows that despite the current lack of significant convection there is still a rather tight circulation centered near 16.2N, 32.7W moving westward still mainly to the SE of the westward moving stratocumulus/SAL.

Will convection come back with later tonight's DMAX like it did last night? DMAX out that far east is probably somewhere around 1-6 AM EDT

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2022082300, , BEST, 0, 161N, 336W, 25, 1010, DB

[zzh]

"25kt"

[wxman57]

If it develops/tracks north of the GAs, we could have a big problem. Look at the extent of 29.5-30C SSTs in the region. I don't recall 2020 or 2021 having 30C SSTs extending all the way to 30N, or that much near Bermuda. Lots of prime real estate for a system to RI dangerously close to land if other conditions are okay, and most recent runs have sent 90L right into this area.
https://i.imgur.com/q6zCQOZ.png

Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.

You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming.

[LarryWx]

Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.