ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:57 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#22 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:20 pm

LarryWx wrote:
sma10 wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:Euro ensembles showing a split to recurve vs. a due west track towards Cuba and South FL. Pretty even split.

WOuld think that this split displays the confidence (or lackthereof) of the trough eroding the ridge.


Does the 12z EPS even show any development from its members?


Yes, 6 of ~51 get below 1,000 mb:

Strongest 974, 984, 987..so looks like 3 Hs vs 4 Hs on 0Z and 3 Hs on yesterday's 12Z


Hmm, interesting. I had blindly assumed that the strongest members were sharp recurves. But that is not the case
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#23 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:26 pm

At first 90L looked pretty good on the 12z HWRF's simulated IR filter. It does look like it's in those beginning days of development.
Image

But switch over to the HWRF-P, and the second wave is right behind 90L and probably about to swallow it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#24 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:32 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:Euro ensembles showing a split to recurve vs. a due west track towards Cuba and South FL. Pretty even split.

WOuld think that this split displays the confidence (or lackthereof) of the trough eroding the ridge.


Euro ensembles are working off current data so it hasn't decided whether the northeast or southwest circulation will develop yet. Its still pretty dry out there so maybe neither develops. Later runs should favor southern latitude tracks if the dry air trend continues. But September?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#25 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:42 pm

12z ECMF Genesis:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#26 Postby sma10 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:05 pm

18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 22, 2022 6:15 pm

sma10 wrote:18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?


Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.
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ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 22, 2022 7:41 pm

18z GFS seems to combine this with another system that came off of SA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#29 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
sma10 wrote:18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?


Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.


Whatever the combo is has generated some big ensemble hurricanes over the past week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#30 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:32 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
sma10 wrote:18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?


Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.


Whatever the combo is has generated some big ensemble hurricanes over the past week.


I feel like this is one of those situations where there are so many moving parts we won't have an idea of what's going to happen until within 3 days, maybe even less. Everything from no development to a major hurricane is on the table, with the added uncertainty of just how bizarrely the Atlantic has behaved especially as we move deeper into what should be peak season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#31 Postby Teban54 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:46 am

0z HWRF a bit stronger, down to 996 mb at hour 63 before weakening. Also shows the SA system and the next MDR wave.

Strongest run of any model in the near term so far... HWRF gonna HWRF lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#32 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 23, 2022 7:22 am

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