WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#201 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:36 am

Tarama registered a minimum sea level pressure of about 948 hPa inside the eye of Hinnamnor whose outer eyewall just grazed the western portion of Miyakojima.
TyphoonFury (EarthUncut) missed the juiciest part of the eyewall.


Image
Image
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#202 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:13 am

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

StormTracker89
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Joined: Sat May 16, 2020 3:47 pm
Location: Somewhere in the Pacific

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#203 Postby StormTracker89 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:25 am

[quote="mrbagyo"]Tarama registered a minimum sea level pressure of about 948 hPa inside the eye of Hinnamnor whose outer eyewall just grazed the western portion of Miyakojima.
TyphoonFury (EarthUncut) missed the juiciest part of the eyewall.


Where did you source this observation data?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 888
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#204 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:35 am

0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#205 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:52 am

StormTracker89 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Tarama registered a minimum sea level pressure of about 948 hPa inside the eye of Hinnamnor whose outer eyewall just grazed the western portion of Miyakojima.
TyphoonFury (EarthUncut) missed the juiciest part of the eyewall.


Where did you source this observation data?


here
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Fancy1001
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 452
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2020 10:16 pm

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#206 Postby Fancy1001 » Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:42 pm

Looks like Hinnamnor is finally getting it's act together again.
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#207 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:54 pm

Radar velocity signature has improved a lot compared to when the storm was approaching Tarama. ~95kts inbound and ~105kts outbound. Of course, some reduction factor needs to be used to convert it to surface winds, but Hinnamnor has clearly strengthened after passing the island.

Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#208 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:28 pm

Image

Making a run at Category 4 again with the CDO stable and the eye warming.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#209 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:32 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1015779476761747536/IMG_1670.jpg

Making a run at Category 4 again with the CDO stable and the eye warming.


This is a very scary situation for SE Korea/Busan especially. Mon-Tue looks to be the worst there since at least 2003! Busan has 7 million folks in the metro.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8030
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#210 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:19 pm

Continuing to improve, but there's so much extra banding that I won't be surprised if another EWRC tries to start in the next 24 hours.
Image
Image
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#211 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:29 pm

Back to a major typhoon.
12W HINNAMNOR 220904 0000 26.1N 124.5E WPAC 105 941
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#212 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:31 pm

0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#213 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:36 pm

3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19138
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#214 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:44 pm

Here is another Himawari 8 viewer https://himawari8.nict.go.jp/
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3735
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#215 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:47 pm

:lol:
WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (HINNAMNOR) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 26.1N 124.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 179 NM WEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TY 12W
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
WITH A SYMMETRIC 45-NM CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A 10-NM EYE.
ANIMATED RADAR DATA AND A 032242Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALED THE INNER CORE, COCOONED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER,
APPROXIMATELY 120NM DIAMETER SECONDARY EYEWALL. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY, WITH SUCH A STRONG SECONDARY EYEWALL, THE INNER CORE
AND EYE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN AND GROW STRONGER AND SHOW NO
SIGN OF IMMINENT EROSION DUE TO BEING CUTOFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT
INFLOW. ITS ALMOST AS IF THERE IS A VERY SMALL ANNULAR TYPHOON
NESTED INSIDE A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE A MATRYOSHKA DOLL.

WHILE THE INNER CORE IS VERY SMALL, THE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND NOW ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE EAST
CHINA SEA. THE SYSTEM IS WOBBLING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH THE
TRACK MADE GOOD JUST A HAIR WEST OF DUE NORTH OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND HAS REACHED CPA TO OKINAWA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI, RADAR AND MICROWAVE
EYES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED ABOVE THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES AS A NOD TO
THE SATCON, AND EXPERIMENTAL CIMSS DEEP MULTINET (110KTS) AND
OPEN-AIIR (107KTS) AND THE RAPID CLEARING OF A NEARLY PINHOLE EYE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 106 KTS AT 032217Z
CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 040010Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: CONCENTRIC EYEWALL, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFF
TAIWAN

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING MOVED NORTH INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE
EAST CHINA SEA THIS MORNING, TY 12W HAS CLEARLY GOTTEN ITS ACT
TOGETHER AND BEGUN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD, WITH SOME CONTINUED DEVIATIONS RIGHT AND LEFT
OF DUE NORTH DUE TO WOBBLE, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEN
AROUND TAU 24, IT WILL MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE. ONCE FIRMLY ON THE NORTHEAST TRACK, ITS OFF TO
THE RACES, WITH TRACK SPEEDS DOUBLING WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE TIGHT DEEP-LAYER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FLOWING OFF TAIWAN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THE
ATMOSPHERE DOWN TRACK IS MORE MOIST AND THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER
AHEAD. SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MAX FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LASTLY, WHILE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST
IS STILL LIMITED, THIS IS MORE THAN OFFSET BY THE VERY STRONG
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND EQUATORWARD. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SET TO
BECOME EVEN BETTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A JET MAXIMUM SKIRTS
ACROSS THE BOHAI GULF, AND TY 12W ESTABLISHES A TAP INTO THE
DIVERGENT RIGHT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAX. IN OTHER WORDS,
THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36.
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL SETUP, AND INCREASING
M-PERC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE
START OF AN ERC IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SO THE PEAK WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AT 115 KNOTS, POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER,
BUT THEN BE ARRESTED BY THE ERC. DUE TO THE SPEED OF ADVANCE, AND
MOVEMENT OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TY 12W
WILL REINTENSIFY MUCH AFTER THE COMPLETION OF THE ERC. AFTER TAU 36
THE PARTY IS OVER, AS SHEAR DRAMATICALLY AND SHARPLY INCREASES AND
OVERCOMES THE VERY IMPRESSIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
WHILE WEAKENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
MANAGE TO KEEP THE INTENSITY UP AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH KOREA AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
RAPIDLY INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND TRANSITION TO A WARM SECLUSION
TYPE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS EARLY AS TAU 60.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS. SPREAD IS MINIMAL, LESS
THAN 100NM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM GOES
EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE JTWC FORECAST ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH SEVERAL
OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS TRIGGERING WITH THIS RUN, UP
TO RI45 WHICH WOULD PEAK AT 150 KNOTS AT TAU 36. MEANWHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY PACKAGE IS NOT IMPRESSED BY TY 12W AND
SHOW STAGNATION OR IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUED WEAKENING, WITH THE
COAMPS-TC NOW DOING A FLIP-FLOP AND NOW COMMITTED TO IMMEDIATE
WEAKENING TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AN UNLIKELY SOLUTION. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACKS THE RI GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN REJOINS THE
HIGHER END OF THE PACK BY TAU 24 THEN REMAINS ON THE HIGH EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND IMPACTS OF THE ERC AND THE SUBSEQUENT ALIGNMENT WITH THE OTHER
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FACTORS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN


Image
4 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#216 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:27 pm



This forecast has max winds at 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea. If this verifies, it would be near the worst on record there.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#217 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:07 am

12W HINNAMNOR 220904 0600 27.0N 124.6E WPAC 105 944

Satellite signature looks cat 4-ish now. An EWRC is imminent, however, and model simulations show a huge eye emerging tomorrow.

Image
Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#218 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 04, 2022 10:46 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
12W HINNAMNOR 220904 0600 27.0N 124.6E WPAC 105 944

Satellite signature looks cat 4-ish now. An EWRC is imminent, however, and model simulations show a huge eye emerging tomorrow. ]



The latest forecast has increased max winds from an already near worst on record 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea/Busan to 95 knots now! This is a very serious situation for there. :eek:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#219 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Sep 04, 2022 1:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
12W HINNAMNOR 220904 0600 27.0N 124.6E WPAC 105 944

Satellite signature looks cat 4-ish now. An EWRC is imminent, however, and model simulations show a huge eye emerging tomorrow. ]



The latest forecast has increased max winds from an already near worst on record 90 knots when hitting SE S Korea/Busan to 95 knots now! This is a very serious situation for there. :eek:

That is over land, it could be 100 knots at landfall because at 12z (12 hours before), it's forecasted at 110 knots!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: HINNAMNOR - Typhoon

#220 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:34 pm

Eye a little cool but this is a T6.0 again. Eye clears out then it's a T6.5 or T7.0 depending on the present ring.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests