ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

How does this thing keep ingesting dry air with <10 kt shear? First it intensifies in 20-35 kt shear, but then trips over itself when shear is super low.

[Hammy]

How does this thing keep ingesting dry air with <10 kt shear? First it intensifies in 20-35 kt shear, but then trips over itself when shear is super low.

This doesn't seem that uncommon with larger systems

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

Earl is done, not going to another peak from this

[Nimbus]

Just as well Bermuda is getting some pretty steady 30 knot winds with gusts to 37 knots.
They probably have a power grid that will hold up OK though.

[AnnularCane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1183/62bMDp.gif

Looks like he's closing his eye for the night.

[Teban54]

I've been trying to stay optimistic, but... The last few frames are just awful.

[Hammy]

I've been trying to stay optimistic, but... The last few frames are just awful.

It's been clear since the inner core was gutted several days ago right as it was first tightening up and the models showing the massive wind field that Earl was likely going to underperform the intensity forecasts

Juan in 1985 was another example of this sort of large, sprawling hurricane, 971mb and 75kt peak

[LarryWx]

Just as well Bermuda is getting some pretty steady 30 knot winds with gusts to 37 knots.
They probably have a power grid that will hold up OK though.

If I were stuck on an island during a hurricane, I'd choose Bermuda (which is actually several islands) to be able to handle it as well as anywhere due to incredibly strict building codes. Everything is so solidly built. Also, you don't have to worry about storm surge over most of the country due to steep rises/good elevation just off most of the beaches and the inland waterways. I know it pretty well because I was there for a vacation once though not during a storm.

[Nimbus]

Just as well Bermuda is getting some pretty steady 30 knot winds with gusts to 37 knots.
They probably have a power grid that will hold up OK though.

If I were stuck on an island during a hurricane, I'd choose Bermuda (which is actually several islands) to be able to handle it as well as anywhere due to incredibly strict building codes. Everything is so solidly built. Also, you don't have to worry about storm surge over most of the country due to steep rises/good elevation just off most of the beaches and the inland waterways. I know it pretty well because I was there for a vacation once though not during a storm.

Over 1000 customers without power so far according to Belco but hasn't gone over 5% yet.

[cycloneye]

Time is running out to be a major cane.

AL, 06, 2022090900, , BEST, 0, 306N, 643W, 85, 964, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat

[JahJa]

Just as well Bermuda is getting some pretty steady 30 knot winds with gusts to 37 knots.
They probably have a power grid that will hold up OK though.

If I were stuck on an island during a hurricane, I'd choose Bermuda (which is actually several islands) to be able to handle it as well as anywhere due to incredibly strict building codes. Everything is so solidly built. Also, you don't have to worry about storm surge over most of the country due to steep rises/good elevation just off most of the beaches and the inland waterways. I know it pretty well because I was there for a vacation once though not during a storm.

Over 1000 customers without power so far according to Belco but hasn't gone over 5% yet.

This is to be expected and can generally happen during a winter storm. The vast majority of power lines (except for the city) are overground so the slightest bit of wind tends to knock out some power. Just opened my front door and it’s a bit windy but nothing of note so far! www.bernews.com tends to have a live feed/blog of storm coverage.

[cycloneye]

A. 06L (EARL)

B. 08/2331Z

C. 30.8N

D. 64.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY A MG RING AND EMBEDDED IN OW
RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A 24 HR SLOW WEAKENING
TREND. THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

08/2215Z 30.2N 64.3W SSMIS


...GATLING

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Newest NHC forecast lowered the peak to 100kts but that's probably still too high, unless Earl somehow does something special, which probably won't happen with that flat pressure gradient and broad wind field. AF plane is about to make their first pass, and I'm guessing it will find Earl about the same strength as earlier.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1568009568051167233

[AtlanticWind]

Kind of interesting how Earl fought strong shear to intensify to a hurricane
then as shear relaxes to below 10 knots he cant take advantage.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Earl looks much better now. Deep convection has been wrapping around with cold cloud tops.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1568009568051167233?t=x9f_LZ7JhIohWKda0yoypA&s=19

Maybe its interaction with that trough is to blame. Hurricanes undergoing extratropical transition always have their wind fields greatly expand; maybe the forcing from the trough is already doing something similar and making Earl behave this way.

[cycloneye]

AL, 06, 2022090912, , BEST, 0, 334N, 619W, 85, 961, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal062022.dat