ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#841 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:31 pm

Hammy wrote:Looking less likely this reaches major hurricane, it really only has about 24h to do so before extratropical transition process begins. Pressure drop is being countered by the expanding wind field

Only 2022 can fail to produce a major with 30C SSTs at 30N and a storm that already looks close to major intensity on satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#842 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:32 pm

Yeah that's pretty much about what I expected, looks like a 70-75kt Cat 1 still to me. Eye drop supports 961mb, so the pressure isn't really dropping either.
I think there could be a chance it can reach 100kts, but that's probably the absolute max it can get at this point
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#843 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:39 pm

aspen wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looking less likely this reaches major hurricane, it really only has about 24h to do so before extratropical transition process begins. Pressure drop is being countered by the expanding wind field

Only 2022 can fail to produce a major with 30C SSTs at 30N and a storm that already looks close to major intensity on satellite imagery.


Atlantic seems like it's trending towards being more like the West Pacific as far as storm structures, but lacks the moisture and heat content (thanks in large part to geography), like they're getting larger and increasingly needing lower pressures to reach a certain strength
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#844 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:40 pm

Eye of Earl starting to make an appearance on visible.

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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#845 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:40 pm

 https://twitter.com/WeatherToday2/status/1567958747984822273




Umm, it sure looks like it's on its way to Cat 3 to me at least? :lol:

Cat 4 may be questionable, but I still am unsure why it would be unable to reach at least Cat 3 status eventually. Iirc, there were similar discussions about Ida when it was a Cat 2 about how its large size would have prevented it from intensifying into a much more powerful hurricane, and look how that turned out.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#846 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:42 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/WeatherToday2/status/1567958747984822273

Umm, it sure looks like it's on its way to Cat 3 to me at least? :lol:

Cat 4 may be questionable, but I still am unsure why it would be unable to reach at least Cat 3 status eventually. Iirc, there were similar discussions about Ida when it was a Cat 2 about how its large size would have prevented it from intensifying into a much more powerful hurricane, and look how that turned out.


Not sure why they're using the pressure as a means to determine it's close to Cat 3 when the actual wind data shows it's barely a Cat 1. Surface data is going to place this 30kt lower than the intensity forecast had it by tonight.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#847 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:50 pm

It seems it's finally mixing out that dry slot, and the core/eyewall is starting to look better, now maybe the pressure can start to drop again
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#848 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:56 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:It seems it's finally mixing out that dry slot, and the core/eyewall is starting to look better, now maybe the pressure can start to drop again

Could start dropping but I am wondering about why the pressure gradient is so flat to begin with. Also wondering why - with the dry air moat gone, lower shear, and warm water - is the convection so shallow? I know the tropopause is lower here than in the tropics, but I don’t think that’s the limiting factor here
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#849 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:56 pm

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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#850 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:57 pm

Hammy wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/WeatherToday2/status/1567958747984822273

Umm, it sure looks like it's on its way to Cat 3 to me at least? :lol:

Cat 4 may be questionable, but I still am unsure why it would be unable to reach at least Cat 3 status eventually. Iirc, there were similar discussions about Ida when it was a Cat 2 about how its large size would have prevented it from intensifying into a much more powerful hurricane, and look how that turned out.


Not sure why they're using the pressure as a means to determine it's close to Cat 3 when the actual wind data shows it's barely a Cat 1. Surface data is going to place this 30kt lower than the intensity forecast had it by tonight.

Yea that tweet is just all sorts of wrong


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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#851 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:57 pm

CDO starting to wrap again so the pressure gradient will sharpen up in a few hours.
Could easily make Cat 2 before the SST's drop off and the wind fields are fairly large for TS winds.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#852 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:58 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/WeatherToday2/status/1567958747984822273

Umm, it sure looks like it's on its way to Cat 3 to me at least? :lol:

Cat 4 may be questionable, but I still am unsure why it would be unable to reach at least Cat 3 status eventually. Iirc, there were similar discussions about Ida when it was a Cat 2 about how its large size would have prevented it from intensifying into a much more powerful hurricane, and look how that turned out.


Hmm, 960mb may typically be associated with 95 kt winds, but not in this case. Why didn't he mention what recon was actually measuring for winds?
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#853 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:00 pm

Nimbus wrote:CDO starting to wrap again so the pressure gradient will sharpen up in a few hours.
Could easily make Cat 2 before the SST's drop off and the wind fields are fairly large for TS winds.


I agree, it does look more impressive than it did this morning. I think winds will come up tonight, but 100 kts may not be attainable.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#854 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/WeatherToday2/status/1567958747984822273

Umm, it sure looks like it's on its way to Cat 3 to me at least? :lol:

Cat 4 may be questionable, but I still am unsure why it would be unable to reach at least Cat 3 status eventually. Iirc, there were similar discussions about Ida when it was a Cat 2 about how its large size would have prevented it from intensifying into a much more powerful hurricane, and look how that turned out.


Hmm, 960mb may typically be associated with 95 kt winds, but not in this case. Why didn't he mention what recon was actually measuring for winds?

Also let’s not forget Delta reached 120 kts with just 953mb, meanwhile Earl is around 70-75 kts at 960mb. Pressure gradient and core size matters like you said earlier, directly correlating from MSLP is not accurate always.


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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#855 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:08 pm

Earl continues to have a huge eye, 60 miles wide! Still with a double wind maxima.

884
URNT12 KNHC 081938
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062022
A. 08/19:05:50Z
B. 29.83 deg N 064.76 deg W
C. 700 mb 2779 m
D. 962 mb
E. 005 deg 9 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C53
H. 60 kt
I. 217 deg 40 nm 18:54:00Z
J. 305 deg 74 kt
K. 219 deg 57 nm 18:49:00Z
L. 64 kt
M. 049 deg 35 nm 19:16:00Z
N. 143 deg 93 kt
O. 049 deg 68 nm 19:25:30Z
P. 9 C / 3050 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 6 nm
U. AF307 2106A EARL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 93 KT 049 / 68 NM 19:25:30Z
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#856 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:33 pm

Earl's definitely a good lesson about using the hurricane-centered model intensities, everything always becomes a major hurricane or dissipates entirely, there's not much inbetween.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#857 Postby MHC Tracking » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:01 pm

Looks unlikely that this becomes a major. Only 24 hours left, and with an intensity currently sitting at 70-75 kt, along with such a broad core, major status appears unlikely. Might be a hot take here, but this was probably our sole opportunity for a MH this season.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#858 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:09 pm

I think the NHC is giving the benefit of doubt that it is an 85 knot hurricane because of flight level winds in the low 90s, but recon so far has not found surface winds higher than 70 knots. Pressure gradient is not tight at all as many have mentioned.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#859 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:17 pm

It appears to be undergoing an EWRC. Like how though. This storm is massive.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Hurricane - Discussion

#860 Postby MHC Tracking » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:20 pm

Looks like another dry air intrusion. GEFS now show very little deepening until EXT. Bold call: Earl has peaked.
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