ATL: EARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

I don't see a double eyewall on that microwave image. Inner eyewall must be already gone. This is when a hurricane would be at its weakest between ERCs. Max winds are around 75 kts.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection finally starting to wrap all the way around, maybe that will help tighten up the core a bit. As wxman said though, this doesn't really look like anything higher than a Cat 1 at the moment though. Still at 90kts on the 12z BT so we'll see what they do at the advisory.

[wxman57]

Convection finally starting to wrap all the way around, maybe that will help tighten up the core a bit. As wxman said though, this doesn't really look like anything higher than a Cat 1 at the moment though. Still at 90kts on the 12z BT so we'll see what they do at the advisory.

I doubt that the NHC will acknowledge that Earl has weakened. They don't want residents of Bermuda to relax and not take it seriously. In addition, the falling central pressure suggests that winds will increase soon. Any changes would come with the storm report next spring.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a big dry slot got to the core as well. We'll see if that convection can choke it off

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hurricanes rapidly fluctuate during EWRCs. It would be dangerous to say Earl has weakened because it will likely very quickly regain its lost intensity after completing the EWRC.

[tropicwatch]

With the pressure continuing to fall. I would think we should start seeing an increase in winds before it reaches Bermuda.

[cheezyWXguy]

What evidence is there that an EWRC occurred? The eye contracted overnight from 50nm to 47nm, I haven’t seen a double wind max on any recon flight, and it doesn’t look like microwave supports it either. Are we sure recon didn’t fly through the quadrant with the expected highest winds while there was that huge gap in it?

[InfernoFlameCat]

What evidence is there that an EWRC occurred? The eye contracted overnight from 50nm to 47nm, I haven’t seen a double wind max on any recon flight, and it doesn’t look like microwave supports it either. Are we sure recon didn’t fly through the quadrant with the expected highest winds while there was that huge gap in it?

I think it had one early last night. It still is dealing with closing off the huge eye it has.

[aspen]

Looks like a big dry slot got to the core as well. We'll see if that convection can choke it off

Yeah that might be why the winds are down this morning. The dry slot (red) has been there for hours, but recently, the convective band (light blue) that was previously restricted to the western side of Earl has wrapped all the way around the core, which should result in the dry air being mixed out and winds increasing again through this afternoon.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man, Earl was nearly a best case scenario! if only it was a little farther east for Bermuda to be fine, it would be the perfect storm to watch. Well, not as good as Sam, but still pretty good. This is awesome. Its what inspires me to watch a loop for hours lol.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a big dry slot got to the core as well. We'll see if that convection can choke it off

Yeah that might be why the winds are down this morning. The dry slot (red) has been there for hours, but recently, the convective band (light blue) that was previously restricted to the western side of Earl has wrapped all the way around the core, which should result in the dry air being mixed out and winds increasing again through this afternoon.
https://i.imgur.com/py73MP5.jpg

Yeah I think the wrapping convection should mix that out pretty easily, then it will be back to strengthening.

Anyone know when the next recon is? Looks like this plane is done

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also, we might see a major hurricane force low once Earl transitions. that may be quite a site to see such a powerful exposed LLC.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like a big dry slot got to the core as well. We'll see if that convection can choke it off

Yeah that might be why the winds are down this morning. The dry slot (red) has been there for hours, but recently, the convective band (light blue) that was previously restricted to the western side of Earl has wrapped all the way around the core, which should result in the dry air being mixed out and winds increasing again through this afternoon.
https://i.imgur.com/py73MP5.jpg

Yeah I think the wrapping convection should mix that out pretty easily, then it will be back to strengthening.

Anyone know when the next recon is? Looks like this plane is done

Nope! It turned back for another pass!

[KirbyDude25]

Yeah that might be why the winds are down this morning. The dry slot (red) has been there for hours, but recently, the convective band (light blue) that was previously restricted to the western side of Earl has wrapped all the way around the core, which should result in the dry air being mixed out and winds increasing again through this afternoon.
https://i.imgur.com/py73MP5.jpg

Yeah I think the wrapping convection should mix that out pretty easily, then it will be back to strengthening.

Anyone know when the next recon is? Looks like this plane is done

Nope! It turned back for another pass!

Looks like it turned around again. Not sure if that means they're done or if they're just adjusting their fly-in angle

[aspen]

Another recon plane is about to take off and should be at Earl’s center in a few hours.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah I think the wrapping convection should mix that out pretty easily, then it will be back to strengthening.

Anyone know when the next recon is? Looks like this plane is done

Nope! It turned back for another pass!

Looks like it turned around again. Not sure if that means they're done or if they're just adjusting their fly-in angle

TT said that they are done, so maybe they were repositioning to fly back to base?

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Another recon plane is about to take off and should be at Earl’s center in a few hours.

And has been turned back, what happened?

[KirbyDude25]

Another recon plane is about to take off and should be at Earl’s center in a few hours.

And has been turned back, what happened?

Maybe some fuel or equipment problems? I'm not sure. At least they realized quickly and could be back in the air soon

[wxman57]

As I suspected, NHC went with 90 kts. They never like to indicate weakening prior to landfall or a close-approach, no matter what recon says.