ATL: EARL - Models

[aspen]

Wow, the Euro is folding to the GFS in the pattern, didn't see that coming

All of a sudden it has a strong trough at hour 144-168.

This recurving that weak will be the stamp on the state of this season lol.

The final nail in the coffin for even a near-normal season. If this can’t develop after 2 weeks in the deep tropics during peak climo, then there’s no way the rest of the season will be any better.

[DestinHurricane]

Wow, the Euro is folding to the GFS in the pattern, didn't see that coming

All of a sudden it has a strong trough at hour 144-168.

This recurving that weak will be the stamp on the state of this season lol.

The final nail in the coffin for even a near-normal season. If this can’t develop after 2 weeks in the deep tropics during peak climo, then there’s no way the rest of the season will be any better.

Yeah i'd agree as far as peak season/CV activity is concerned. It was a joke this year. However, you can never completely rule out a storm like Michael, Opal, or Nate late in the season.

[LarryWx]

Euro with an easy recurve near 70w.

Indeed, which means the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes.

It is wrong we have been here before. Its always late to join the rest of the models.

It can't actually be wrong until it is wrong. But the odds are high it will end up wrong since it is the UKMET against all others and it is way SW. So, it would be crazy to bet on the UKMET, which nobody including myself is doing here on the board. Regardless, I'm waiting for an actual TC center to be declared (if it ever is) to see what we'll actually have to track and where the center would be.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

[pgoss11]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Geesh. I love tracking storms but I’m so done with this thing that’s not even a storm yet.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Geesh. I love tracking storms but I’m so done with this thing that’s not even a storm yet.

Actually, I'm the opposite. I often enjoy tracking disturbances even more as there's much more uncertainty thus making it more of a challenge and thus more interesting.

I checked and the % of 12Z EPS hitting/threatening the US is much higher than recent runs and is thus the most threatening EPS in a number of days. Granted it is still only at 20%, but it is as I said a big increase fwiw. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

[pgoss11]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Geesh. I love tracking storms but I’m so done with this thing that’s not even a storm yet.

Actually, I'm the opposite. I often enjoy tracking disturbances even more as there's much more uncertainty


thus making it more of a challenge and thus more interesting.

I checked and the % of 12Z EPS hitting/threatening the US is much higher than recent runs and is thus the most threatening EPS in a number of days. Granted it is still only at 20%, but it is as I said a big increase fwiw. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

I can understand the challenge with these systems and how one might enjoy tracking them and I’m usually onboard with that but for some reason this one is just too frustrating.

[NDG]

Euro ensembles have a big spread.

[Kingarabian]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Might be a wonky run by the deterministic Euro then. We'll see.

But I agree completely. Can't discount the UKMET until it's actually wrong. Also can't ignore anything because we've yet to have a solid center to track.

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles have a big spread.

https://i.imgur.com/y3HEUkJ.png

12z ECENS a little more interesting.

[Teban54]

Euro ensembles have a big spread.

https://i.imgur.com/y3HEUkJ.png

That random Cat 4 SC strike lmao

[Hammy]

GFS backing off is throwing a huge wrench in my confidence that this season can still be active as that leaves only the CMC showing any reasonable strengthening. The next 72 hours are make or break for that--if 91L ends up busting then it's an indicator that the season will likely be more of the same the rest of the season.

[sma10]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Geesh. I love tracking storms but I’m so done with this thing that’s not even a storm yet.

Actually, I'm the opposite. I often enjoy tracking disturbances even more as there's much more uncertainty thus making it more of a challenge and thus more interesting.

I checked and the % of 12Z EPS hitting/threatening the US is much higher than recent runs and is thus the most threatening EPS in a number of days. Granted it is still only at 20%, but it is as I said a big increase fwiw. It actually even has about 10% of its members (half the threats) way down SW near the 12Z UKMET!

20% is significant number, given the systems current location plus the deterministic solutions.

It tells me that the system is likely to be picked up, but that it could potentially be a tight margin for error

[Jr0d]

Ive been hesitant to write this off..despite what the models were showing a few days ago.

Obviously a shallower system could very well miss the connection to go north.

Still too much uncertainty...despite the long range showing more weakness that should ultimately push this north.

Until it makes a definite turn or a trough is on the way, im still going to watching this.

Despite being relatively small, i suppose some energy could get pulled north and some left behind to eventually find favorable conditions over the hot water north of Cuba

[tolakram]

18Z Euro-fast is out. Pretty well defined for 2022, though it might fall apart in 48 hours.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS says hold your beer, we can't yet give the all clear to the US. 20% of members do not recurve safely, which appears to be an increase.

Might be a wonky run by the deterministic Euro then. We'll see.

But I agree completely. Can't discount the UKMET until it's actually wrong. Also can't ignore anything because we've yet to have a solid center to track.

The 18Z EPS suggests that the wider 12Z EPS spread was a bit of a fluke because the 18Z has gone back to a narrower spread with fewer US threats at 144 vs 12Z at 150.

[tolakram]

Full euro 18Z. Better organized.

[floridasun]

now we know what models nhc looking for track of new storm earl

[DestinHurricane]

00Z GFS looking rather odd lol. Things gonna split in 2?

[floridasun]

00Z GFS looking rather odd lol. Things gonna split in 2?

i dont see that