ATL: EARL - Models

[aspen]

12z HWRF correctly initialized 91L with a tilted vortex. Maybe this run will be closer to the Euro/UK/CMC

No chance its already turning NW before 65w and intensifying.

The HWRF is up to early Monday on Tropical Tidbits, and so far while it is intensifying it hasn’t started recurving and the MLC/LLC only just snapped together. Are you looking at another site that’s ahead of TT?

[LarryWx]

12z UKMET continues to be the most west/south west compared to model guidance.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 22.5N 71.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2022 132 22.5N 71.7W 1011 21
0000UTC 08.09.2022 144 22.4N 72.7W 1009 21

That's the old run (0Z).

Yup my bad.

21.7N 74.9W hour 144 on the 12z UKMET. Appears to be further SW.

The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to moving NW. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously.

[SFLcane]

That's the old run (0Z).

Yup my bad.

21.7N 74.9W hour 144 on the 12z UKMET. Appears to be further SW.

The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to NW at the end of the 12Z. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously.

I think its a bias its always late to join the rest of the models.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF correctly initialized 91L with a tilted vortex. Maybe this run will be closer to the Euro/UK/CMC

No chance its already turning NW before 65w and intensifying.

The HWRF is up to early Monday on Tropical Tidbits, and so far while it is intensifying it hasn’t started recurving and the MLC/LLC only just snapped together. Are you looking at another site that’s ahead of TT?

Easy recurve its up near 24n already near 65w. I suspect the euro will recurve in the same fashion.

[LarryWx]

Yup my bad.

21.7N 74.9W hour 144 on the 12z UKMET. Appears to be further SW.

The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to NW at the end of the 12Z. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously.

I think its a bias its always late to join the rest of the models.

Indeed, the UKMET sometimes is far to the left of the other models like it is now.  But if it isn't off and its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (maybe not for 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

[SFLcane]

The 12Z 132 hour UKMET position is 100 miles SW of the 0Z 144 and is moving slowly due west as opposed to NW at the end of the 12Z. Of course, with it once again being a SW outlier by several hundred miles again, it could easily be off obviously.

I think its a bias its always late to join the rest of the models.

Indeed, the UKMET sometimes is far to the left of the other models like it is now.  But if it isn't off and its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (maybe not for 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Na i just don't see that amount of ridging to drive this into the gulf. The more likely scenario is a stall followed by a recurve as the next trof swings down.

[Kingarabian]

Real time trends support the bearish models though.

[Kingarabian]

I think its a bias its always late to join the rest of the models.

Indeed, the UKMET sometimes is far to the left of the other models like it is now.  But if it isn't off and its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (maybe not for 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Na i just don't see that amount of ridging to drive this into the gulf. The more likely scenario is a stall followed by a recurve as the next trof swings down.

How's it going to recurve safely if it continues to drift west? Not saying it'll strengthen significantly but it's getting so far west in these model runs that it may not clear land masses even if it recurves.

[SFLcane]

Indeed, the UKMET sometimes is far to the left of the other models like it is now.  But if it isn't off and its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (maybe not for 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Na i just don't see that amount of ridging to drive this into the gulf. The more likely scenario is a stall followed by a recurve as the next trof swings down.

How's it going to recurve safely if it continues to drift west? Not saying it'll strengthen significantly but it's getting so far west in these model runs that it may not clear land masses even if it recurves.

12z models take it almost due NW and out to sea.

[LarryWx]

Indeed, the UKMET sometimes is far to the left of the other models like it is now.  But if it isn't off and its very weak low stays intact, this is implying it could eventually (maybe not for 8-10+ days) become a Gulf problem.

Na i just don't see that amount of ridging to drive this into the gulf. The more likely scenario is a stall followed by a recurve as the next trof swings down.

How's it going to recurve safely if it continues to drift west? Not saying it'll strengthen significantly but it's getting so far west in these model runs that it may not clear land masses even if it recurves.

Agreed. IF there is a surface low near Cuba in still early September moving due west, climo says good luck on getting it to recurve sharply enough to miss the US. It may be very weak, but who the heck knows and that's beside the point. I'm talking about steering.

[LarryWx]

Na i just don't see that amount of ridging to drive this into the gulf. The more likely scenario is a stall followed by a recurve as the next trof swings down.

How's it going to recurve safely if it continues to drift west? Not saying it'll strengthen significantly but it's getting so far west in these model runs that it may not clear land masses even if it recurves.

12z models take it almost due NW and out to sea.

https://i.postimg.cc/wTjf9yyY/storm-91.gif

But not the 12Z UKMET, which is moving due west near Cuba albeit only as a very weak low as opposed to a TC (and thus not on your map).

[DestinHurricane]

It better start gaining some latitude if the GFS is to verify

[tolakram]

EC-FAST a little better organized

[tolakram]

or not

[SFLcane]

Euro with an easy recurve near 70w.

[LarryWx]

Euro with an easy recurve near 70w.

Indeed, which means the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes.

[SFLcane]

Euro with an easy recurve near 70w.

Indeed, which means the 12Z UKMET moving due west way on down near Cuba is an extreme SW outlier and thus likely wrong like usually is the case when it is a far SW outlier. But if it were to somehow not be wrong, then obviously everything changes.

It is wrong we have been here before. Its always late to join the rest of the models. Bring on the holidays i am already over this season or the lack of lol. Huricane almost near 45n. Just dumb

[NDG]

Wow, the Euro is folding to the GFS in the pattern, didn't see that coming

[tolakram]

Pretty ugly

[Kingarabian]

Wow, the Euro is folding to the GFS in the pattern, didn't see that coming

All of a sudden it has a strong trough at hour 144-168.

This recurving that weak will be the stamp on the state of this season lol.