ATL: EARL - Models

[NotSparta]

The main problem with the 0zGFS is that it seems to be sprouting a random vortex on the north side of the wave near the islands which could be throwing the run off, let’s see if it models continue to show this or if it’s erroneous . Will have to watch the next few days

Also probably a little shear from the hurricane in the Gulf

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS ensembles don’t seem to impressed either.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/nrMd8pGt/B64-D160-E-C69-C-4-FF9-9-AF8-E2940-D8-CD529.gif

Looks like the ICON has caved in with the 12z NAVGEM

[skyline385]

Weaker 0Z Euro as well, its a disorganized mess right near the LA.

So for today's 0Z cycle, ECMWF, CMC and ICON have all trended weaker.

[AtlanticWind]

Weaker on Euro,but looks like less of an escape hatch to the north.

Models are not reliably for strengh that far out and am not liking the setup for us in Florida
at this point.
But lots of time ...

[skyline385]

Weaker on Euro,but looks like less of an escape hatch to the north.

Models are not reliably for strengh that far out and am not liking the setup for us in Florida
at this point.
But lots of time ...

Models are not reliable for anything 10 days out except showing a possible scenario, that is why I was talking about the trend.

When all models suddenly start trending weaker, then at the very least you know that the wave is not having a good time right now.

[AtlanticWind]

Weaker on Euro,but looks like less of an escape hatch to the north.

Models are not reliably for strengh that far out and am not liking the setup for us in Florida
at this point.
But lots of time ...

Models are not reliable for anything 10 days out except showing a possible scenario, that is why I was talking about the trend.

When all models suddenly start trending weaker, then at the very least you know that the wave is not having a good time right now.

No model really had the wave doing much right now or in next 3 to 4 days , but the Euro showed
conditions in 5 + days being good for devolpment but backed off that tonight.
Still a long ways out for models .

[AtlanticWind]

00z Euro ensembles still a strong signal for devolpment.

[AtlanticWind]

HMON and HWRF basically show no development thru the 5 days

[Jr0d]

https://i.postimg.cc/nrMd8pGt/B64-D160-E-C69-C-4-FF9-9-AF8-E2940-D8-CD529.gif

Looks like the ICON has caved in with the 12z NAVGEM

Dont like the High over the Carolinas that pops up at the end of the run, the EURO is showing it also. Worried it block a recurve before it reaches the CONUS.

The GFS has performed horribly this past month, it will likely cave before too long. Once it drops the phantom storm it will pick up on this one.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/nrMd8pGt/B64-D160-E-C69-C-4-FF9-9-AF8-E2940-D8-CD529.gif

Looks like the ICON has caved in with the 12z NAVGEM

Dont like the High over the Carolinas that pops up at the end of the run, the EURO is showing it also. Worried it block a recurve before it reaches the CONUS.

The GFS has performed horribly this past month, it will likely cave before too long. Once it drops the phantom storm it will pick up on this one.

On 06z it has both strong.

[SFLcane]

[ronjon]

This thing stays weak not good for the SE US. It won't gain much latitude prior to reaching the Bahamas and we all know how storms can rapidly intensify there.

[cycloneye]

06Z GFS makes a very strong comeback and recurves towards Bermuda.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/CxMQnBZN/07-F147-A7-5801-430-D-B534-D737-D839266-E.gif

weakening on approach but more importantly, is the ridge

[jlauderdal]

06Z GFS makes a very strong comeback and recurves towards Bermuda.

https://i.imgur.com/eSeIHMK.gif

recurves right into a ridge; we have seen that before with the GFS

GFS showing more intensity than the euro thus the more northern solution but certainly not intense enough to displace the ridge on its own. Very dangerous part of the basin, this is where hurricanes go for major intensification, euro weakens it on approach even though the environment looks good.

[Blown Away]

00z ECMWF - W shift.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro showing a really unfavorable upper air environment, lots of shear. Current map shows how shear looks at the moment, and it's pretty rough.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

[jlauderdal]

0Z Euro showing a really unfavorable upper air environment, lots of shear. Current map shows how shear looks at the moment, and it's pretty rough.

https://i.imgur.com/UtGKiGe.png

https://i.imgur.com/76tcqCz.png

meanwhile, development chances keep increasing, nhc likes it 30/70