ATL: EARL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

ATL: EARL - Models

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 27, 2022 7:59 pm

All discussion on 91L with models goes here
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Keldeo1997
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 514
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:20 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:24 pm

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4498
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:25 pm

Models are probably going to be all over the place until it actually forms, which will likely take several more days to happen, so I would take them with a grain of salt for now regardless of what they're showing
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19140
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:39 pm

Modelpalooza, most recent long runs of each model.

Euro
Image

GFS
Image

CMC
Image

UKMET
Image

ICON
Image

JMA
Image

NAVGEM
Image
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#6 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 8:46 pm

The lowly NAVGEM but big shift west from the 12Z crawling north at the end:

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 9:36 pm

18z eps…

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 9:48 pm

18z euro…

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Sambucol
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:09 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby Sambucol » Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:The lowly NAVGEM but big shift west from the 12Z crawling north at the end:

https://i.postimg.cc/3w6QS6Pk/nvg10-sfc10m-240-go-mex.gif

That might be the beginning of a trend west in track. And maybe into the GOM.
0 likes   

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#10 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 10:41 pm

Weaker ICON 0Z run so far
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:07 pm

Strong finish by ICON.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4156
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strong finish by ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDZQYdQ.gif


Looks to be moving west under a pretty strong ridge also.
3 likes   
Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138889
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:27 pm

Wow, GFS does not develop. It may be tied to the phantom development in NW Caribbean/BOC.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:28 pm

The main problem with the 0zGFS is that it seems to be sprouting a random vortex on the north side of the wave near the islands which could be throwing the run off, let’s see if it models continue to show this or if it’s erroneous . Will have to watch the next few days
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow, GFS does not develop.


Probably due to random development of a vortex to the north of the current low along the wave keeping this in check this run, could be a random thing the GFS does with random vortices
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8897
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#16 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow, GFS does not develop.

Did the GFS just give up or something? Or maybe it's thinking that the SAL will not allow this system from forming at all?
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:Strong finish by ICON.

https://i.imgur.com/iDZQYdQ.gif


Still much weaker than 12Z and yesterday's 0Z run
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37049
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:32 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow, GFS does not develop.

Did the GFS just give up or something? Or maybe it's thinking that the SAL will not allow this system from forming at all?


I think it's tied to the Gulf storm which it refuses to give up on and is stronger this run
Last edited by Brent on Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
skyline385
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2444
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
Location: Palm Beach County FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#19 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:34 pm

Weaker CMC/GEM run as well, its also slowing down and slightly turning north at the end of the run

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#20 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:45 pm

Image
2 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests