ATL: EARL - Models

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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#461 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:36 pm

floridasun wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:00Z GFS looking rather odd lol. Things gonna split in 2? :P

i dont see that


It was only a frame or 2
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#462 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:45 pm

UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#463 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 03, 2022 12:00 am

Kingarabian wrote:UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.


What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#464 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 03, 2022 12:12 am

Hammy wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.


What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output

Through hour 144 it's a weak TS.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#465 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:UKMET shifts east big time. In line with the GFS.


What's the intensity? I'm not sure where to access their output

Through hour 144 it's a weak TS.


Short waves exiting the east coast of CONUS dig to pick up tropical storms and weak hurricanes, a likely scenario.
Major hurricanes sometimes pump up the ridge they are being steered by so the short waves roll over with a stronger anticyclonic circulation pushing the Jetstream north.

So UKmet shifted track further East with the TS signature.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#466 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:03 am

Today’s model suite has gotten a little more aggressive — the most recent GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON runs all turn Earl into a recurving hurricane. Seems like they’re agreeing a little more on the track, between the Bahamas recurve from prior Euro/CMC runs, and the immediate 60W recurve from the GFS.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#467 Postby jhpigott » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:41 am

There are a not insignificant number of 00z EPS members that look to stall out Earl just east of the Bahamas which eventually get shunted west into the SE coast
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#468 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:43 am

The GFS continues to do better with sheared storms. It's maybe the only thing left that it can do better at.

6Z Euro now very similar to previous GFS runs.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#469 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:57 am

Apologies to the GFS by me 8-)
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#470 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:02 am

HWRF-P 06Z
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#471 Postby CourierPR » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:52 am

Some one needs to get the word to Earl to stop moving west.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#472 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:58 am

Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#473 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:03 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.


What model recurves it at 60W? I believe all of them recurve in the vicinity of 70W. HWRF is closer to 65.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#474 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:06 am

aspen wrote:Today’s model suite has gotten a little more aggressive — the most recent GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON runs all turn Earl into a recurving hurricane. Seems like they’re agreeing a little more on the track, between the Bahamas recurve from prior Euro/CMC runs, and the immediate 60W recurve from the GFS.

I was answering to this post. I probably should have quoted it. Also the HWRF posted above takes it out right at 65
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#475 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:15 am

12Z GFS
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#476 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:17 am

GFS trend
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#477 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:20 am

CMC continues to make this a hurricane. Hopefully it ends up being something decent. Current visible showing an exposed swirl and still, some tough conditions ahead of it isn't that promising.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#478 Postby msbee » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:23 am

Absolutely a non event here in St Maarten
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#479 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:24 am

Earl is tracking on the southern side of most of the models at the moment due to his sheared center slipping west a little faster. Probably nothing, but if this goes on for another 1-2 days, we might see some models creep west a little. Or maybe not, who knows.

Edit: Based on recon and satellite, Earl appears to be strengthening now, so this may be the start of the deepening/recurvature unanimously seen by the models. Westward track shifts are probably not going to happen.
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Re: ATL: EARL - Models

#480 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 03, 2022 1:53 pm

tolakram wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Seeing as how Earl is plugging away west at 19N and 63W I'd say the models that recurve it at 60W are now officially wrong. It isn't showing any sign of slowing down or changing direction as far as I can see. According to most of these models, the recurve is imminent. We shall see very soon if that plays out. Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like Danielle might be gumming up the flow somewhat. Don't know how that factors into things though.


What model recurves it at 60W? I believe all of them recurve in the vicinity of 70W. HWRF is closer to 65.



The "next" weakness I could see digging south below 30 N can be seen in the cirrus clouds blowing east over Bermuda in the WV imagery. Waiting to see the NW turn verify, once its above 20N it won't miss any weakness.
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