ATL: EARL - Models

[aspen]

12z HWRF is the ideal outcome for Earl: moderate intensification into a high-end TS by the time it starts recurving, then intensifies into a major on its way into the subtropics due to passing over a pool of 29-30C SSTs east of Bermuda and getting favorable enhancement from a trough. That would yield several times more ACE than was Alex through Danielle have produced so far and leave all land areas unscathed.

[Steejo91]

12z HWRF is the ideal outcome for Earl: moderate intensification into a high-end TS by the time it starts recurving, then intensifies into a major on its way into the subtropics due to passing over a pool of 29-30C SSTs east of Bermuda and getting favorable enhancement from a trough. That would yield several times more ACE than was Alex through Danielle have produced so far and leave all land areas unscathed.

This i can easily see this happening. Especially when that trough allows for favorable outflow channels as it turns north. I just hope it's current trends for organization continues so this can pass safely to the east of Bermuda.

[floridasun]

nhc map show turn by 2pm on sunday

[Nimbus]

nhc map show turn by 2pm on sunday

So the models think the trough near Bermuda is going to dig far enough south that Earl feels a weakness?
Beginning to look like the weakness left behind by Danielle is too far northeast?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[aspen]

18z HWRF/HMON are initializing this as a weaker TC in the mid to upper 1000s mbar, when the latest recon found it in the upper 990s. The HMON doesn’t reach 999mb for another 60-66hrs.

EDIT: they’re stuck at 39 and 66hrs hours again, respectively. What’s been going on with the hurricane models on Tropical Tidbits?

[shah83]

18z GFS turns this into a powerful extratropical storm for UK and France. Of course, unlikely, but interesting run.

[aspen]

12z HAFS blew Earl into a high 3/low 4, FWIW.

[TheDreamTraveler]

0z Euro turns Earl into a potential threat for Bermuda

[aspen]

06z HWRF is interesting. It shows the LLC and MLC stacking sometime today due a massive blowup of convection (which seems to be happening now), and Earl becomes a Cat 1 hurricane before it gets disrupted by shear again on Monday night. It remains a ragged Cat 1 (maybe dropping below hurricane intensity for a bit) until it gets going again starting Wednesday night, as 29-30C SSTs and favorable trough interaction propel it to the 940s by the end of the run.

Edit: 06z HMON also shows a brief stacking and spike to Cat 1 intensity on Monday

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF-P

[BobHarlem]

12z icon and 12z CMC take Earl very near (or over) Bermuda

[pgoss11]

12z icon and 12z CMC take Earl very near (or over) Bermuda

Interesting..slight left hook at the end of the run on ICON. Maybe ridge building back in?

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[blp]

Euro Ensembles still trying to make this interesting..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1566575791969804288




Earl


source: http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/

[tolakram]

I made an animation of it. Very cool site!

[AutoPenalti]

Euro Ensembles still trying to make this interesting..

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1063c243ea5ddb8d6c91de6b91e87ddba2b256844707972471223ce77b948436.gif

Huh??? What happened there??

[CrazyC83]

Euro Ensembles still trying to make this interesting..

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1063c243ea5ddb8d6c91de6b91e87ddba2b256844707972471223ce77b948436.gif

Huh??? What happened there??

That wouldn't be an unprecedented track. Felix in 1995 did something similar.

[Jelmergraaff]

HWRF (18z) had Earl as a rather intense MH at around +120h with a minimum pressure of 942 mb and max winds of 115kt/132mph. HMON less agressive, certainly regarding the wind speeds (pressure drops to 950 mb however).

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1566673046886199296