EPAC: JAVIER - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 10:06 am

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate
over the past few hours. The deep convective burst noted in the
previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the
circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70
degrees C. Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half
of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection. A blend of
the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support
lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.

Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend. The system has
crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be
progressively colder. Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to
not be conducive for any additional strengthening. Global models
suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the
environmental moisture to decrease within a day. Based on this
information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier
becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a
remnant within two days.

The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt. Though
the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the
north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a
mid-level ridge to its northeast. Within a day or less, model
guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the
west-northwest. Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a
weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours.
The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the
previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations
from the official track forecast could result in
tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California
Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:32 am

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 03, 2022 2:39 pm

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:00 pm

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier has been devoid of deep convection for the past few hours.
Recent satellite surface wind measurements also indicate the cyclone
has a smaller wind field than previously estimated and
tropical-storm-force winds are only present in the northern portion
of the circulation. Based on the ASCAT data the initial intensity
is held at 40 kt for this cycle.

The lack of organized, deep convection is an indication Javier is
likely to become a post-tropical cyclone soon. The system is
moving over a cooling gradient of ocean surface temperatures and
into a region with moderate to strong vertical wind shear and lower
relative humidities. Model guidance agrees Javier should continue
to weaken and the official forecast reflects this information. The
system is now predicted to be a post-tropical cyclone within 12
hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 14 kt. The
mid-level ridge to the north currently steering Javier is expected
to gradually turn the storm west-northwestward and slow its forward
motion. Low-level tradewinds are then expected to turn the
weakening shallow vortex to the west and west-southwest beyond 48
hours. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory
prediction and the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any northward deviations from the official track
forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur this evening, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected between Puerto de
Andresito and Punta Eugenia through this afternoon. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 26.0N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 27.0N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1800Z 27.6N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 27.8N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 27.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 26.7N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:18 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

...JAVIER MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:46 pm

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 03 2022

Javier is nearly post-tropical, having produced little to no deep
convection since late this morning. Post-tropical transition
will likely conclude tonight since the cyclone is moving over
cold water that should prevent the redevelopment of organized deep
convection. Earlier ASCAT data showed peak winds near 40 kt, so the
initial intensity was held at that value, possibly conservatively
so. Without deep convection to sustain it, Javier should slowly
weaken over the next several days, eventually dissipating by the
middle of next week. The new official intensity forecast is nearly
identical to the previous one and is close to the intensity model
consensus.

The tropical storm is now moving away from the Baja California
peninsula. Low-level easterly steering flow should cause Javier to
turn westward by the end of the weekend. By then the cyclone is
forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it should continue
westward through the middle of the week until it dissipates. The NHC
track forecast is heavily based on the TVCN track consensus aid with
no changes of note made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 26.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 27.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 28.0N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 27.9N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 27.6N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 27.0N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 26.7N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:10 pm

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Post-Tropical

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 04, 2022 4:41 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022

There has been no significant deep convection associated with
Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any
organized deep convection will attempt a comeback. Accordingly,
Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is
lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The remnant low should
continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface
temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic
models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough
of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the
intensity model consensus.

The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula
and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone should
turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant
low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days.

This is the final NHC advisory on Javier. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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