EPAC: JAVIER - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN -E - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 111.3W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 01 2022

The depression is gradually getting better organized, with a recent
SSMIS microwave image showing a more continuous convective band
forming on the western side of the circulation. The initial
intensity remains 30 kt on this advisory, which is a blend of
T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. The depression has the opportunity to strengthen
during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over warm waters and
in an environment of low shear, although any intensification is
likely to be gradual given the system's broad nature. The NHC
official forecast still shows a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36
hours, which is between the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. The
system is expected to weaken after 36 hours as it moves over much
colder waters, and it is likely to lose all its deep convection and
become post tropical in 2 to 3 days.

The depression remains on a steady northwestward track of 320/9 kt,
positioned along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Over the next 2 days, a blocking ridge over the western United
States is expected to strengthen further, which will force the
cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the weekend.
The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward
compared to the previous forecast based on the latest suite of
models, but the system's tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
remain well offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.
Winds aside, outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 19.7N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 20.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 24.1N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 25.5N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z 25.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN -E - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:47 pm

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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN -E - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:43 am

TXPZ23 KNES 020629
TCSENP

A. 11E (NONAME)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 19.5N

D. 111.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON A
24 HR DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT BECAUSE
THE MEASURED CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING


That last bit is not Dvorak.
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Re: EPAC: ELEVEN -E - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:50 am

EP, 11, 2022090206, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1114W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 70, 40, 30, 1006, 240, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JAVIER


TS Javier at the next advisory cycle (2am PDT)
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:53 am

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

Since yesterday afternoon, deep convection has been developing over
the western half of the cyclone. Although the surface circulation
is still elongated (north to south), deep bursts of convection
have recently appeared near the estimated center. The latest
microwave imagery indicated curved banding with cold cloud
tops of -81C forming in the southeast quadrant. A blend of the
subjective satellite intensity from TAFB and SAB yields an estimate
of 35 kt. Accordingly, the depression has been upgraded to a
tropical storm for this advisory.

The depression is expected to remain in an environment conducive
for additional strengthening through Saturday, but given its
broad, elongated structure, only modest intensification is
forecast. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected as the cyclone
traverses decreasing (22-24C) oceanic temperatures while moving
into a stable, dry marine layer. The intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one and is based on the various intensity
consensus guidance.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9
kt, moving along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
over northern Mexico. By the 48 hour period, the ridge as
mentioned above is expected to build westward, which should cause
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the
weekend. The official track forecast is again adjusted to the
right of the previous forecast based on a mean track of the
clustered guidance, however, tropical-storm-force winds generated
by Javier are expected to remain well offshore of the western coast
of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large
swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and
central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:49 am

EP, 11, 2022090212, , BEST, 0, 202N, 1119W, 40, 1000, TS


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep112022.dat
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:51 am

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep
convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with
cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is
raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26
degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate
atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional
strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental
moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official
forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next
day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over
cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The
storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build
westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The
official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous
forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However,
tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to
remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:03 am

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:04 am

Well good thing this isn't landfalling. Its slow movement and sprawling size would've flooded a lot of areas inland.
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:23 pm

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:29 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 021821
TCSENP

A. 11E (JAVIER)

B. 02/1730Z

C. 21.3N

D. 112.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE MET AND PT ARE
2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 1:56 pm

EP, 11, 2022090218, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1125W, 40, 1000, TS


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep112022.dat
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:51 pm

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JAVIER EP112022 09/02/22 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 46 46 41 38 35 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 46 46 41 38 35 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 42 37 32 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 4 4 10 9 11 11 18 21 29 28 34 35 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 3 3 2 4 7 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 357 150 160 168 207 257 261 230 204 189 184 191 211 225 246 N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.1 22.8 22.2 21.3 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.6 22.6 23.0 23.5 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 129 115 91 85 75 75 81 85 86 86 91 97 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 68 60 54 50 45 44 40 38 36 31 26 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 19 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 91 94 96 96 109 93 69 77 100 109 101 94 56 45 26 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 83 69 37 15 -14 -4 0 -9 -9 -4 -4 -6 -8 -13 -19 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 0 0 3 10 0 10 1 2 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 313 303 249 280 310 392 620 861 1087 1244 1391 1527 1631 1759 1908 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.8 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.2 113.9 114.9 115.9 118.4 121.1 123.7 126.3 128.6 130.6 132.2 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -17. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -32. -38. -43. -46. -47.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.3 112.5

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112022 JAVIER 09/02/22 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 3.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 6.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 21.9% 19.5% 18.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.3% 9.3% 5.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.0% 10.4% 8.2% 6.7% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112022 JAVIER 09/02/22 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:02 pm

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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Javier Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

...JAVIER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SATURDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
west coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to
Punta Eugenia and for the east coast of Baja California Sur from
Cabo San Lucas northward to Bahia San Juan Bautista.



Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

The organization of Javier has not changed significantly over the
past few hours. Satellite infrared imagery indicate that convection
is deepest in the western portion of the tropical storm's elongated
circulation with an apparent dry slot in the northwest quadrant.
The initial intensity remains at 40 kt and is a blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for
strengthening for the next 24 hours, with warm sea surface
temperatures, low deep-layer vertical wind shear and sufficient
environmental moisture. However, Javier still has a relatively
broad circulation, so the NHC forecast only calls for slight
strengthening. It should be noted that the peak of the official
intensity forecast is now at the top of the model guidance. Beyond
a day, the system is predicted to weaken as it moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment. Javier
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt. The reasoning
behind the track forecast is unchanged. A mid-tropospheric ridge to
the north is the primary synoptic feature steering Javier. This
ridge is expected to build westward and turn the cyclone to the
northwest and west-northwest in the next couple of days. The
official forecast has shifted eastward again towards the model
consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of
Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja California Sur.
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast
during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 21.8N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:46 pm

TXPZ23 KNES 030026
TCSENP

A. 11E (JAVIER)

B. 02/2330Z

C. 22.8N

D. 112.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 2.5 AND
THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 7:55 pm

EP, 11, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1128W, 45, 999, TS


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep112022.dat
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:14 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2022 9:57 pm

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022

AMSR microwave imagery that arrived after the issuance of the
previous advisory indicated that Javier's center was slightly
northeast of previous estimates. The microwave imagery also showed
that the Tropical Storm still has a broad center, with more recent
visible imagery suggesting that multiple swirls are rotating around
a mean center. Despite the cyclone's broad organization, subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now
support a higher initial intensity of 45 kt. Slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight before Javier moves over much
cooler waters and begins to weaken on Saturday. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS, HWRF, and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone
will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in about
36 h, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. No changes of
note were made to the official intensity forecast.

Due to the relocation of Javier's initial position to the northeast,
the NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction.
Otherwise, there has been no change in the thinking behind the track
forecast. The tropical storm appears to have accelerated slightly
and now has an initial motion estimate of 330/12 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Javier
generally parallel to the coast of the Baja California peninsula for
the next day or so. The ridge is then forecast to build westward as
Javier weakens, which should cause the cyclone to turn westward
through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is based on
the latest multi-model track consensus and is near the center of the
guidance envelope.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official
track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching
portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 23.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: JAVIER - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:35 am

Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a recent deep
convective burst with -78C cloud tops just to the west of the
surface circulation center. A 0116 UTC SSMI/S microwave image
showed a primary curved band wrapping around 65 percent of the
cyclone's surface center. Based on a compromise of the latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, a 0428 UTC SATCON
analysis of 49 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealing a few peak-wind retrievals of 39 kt (undersampling
likely), the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

There's a small window of opportunity that Javier could strengthen
slightly today before it moves over a gradient of progressively
cooler waters of less than 24C this evening. This negatively
contributing oceanic parameter, along with an increasingly stable
surrounding environment should cause Javier to become a
post-tropical cyclone Sunday, and a remnant low-pressure system by
early next week.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/13
kt. This general motion should continue through today in response
to the mid-level steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. By early
Sunday, the global models are in good agreement that this ridge
should build westward and influence Javier to slowly turn toward
the west-northwest to west while the cyclone weakens. The NHC
forecast follows suit and lies close to the TVCE and NOAA HFIP HCCA
consensus aids.

Javier's wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory using a
fortuitous 0430 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. Although the NHC
forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico,
any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast
could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 24.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 25.4N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 26.8N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 05/0600Z 27.5N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 27.3N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 26.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 26.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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