ATL: DANIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WiscoWx02]

So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2022090218, , BEST, 0, 379N, 435W, 65, 992, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.

Models have this sitting and intensifying place, but I hadn't even considered the upwelling problem which makes me wonder if the models are even factoring that in, given all show steady-to-quick intensification.

[aspen]

So how long is Danielle going to have to sit in the same spot for upwelling to become an issue? I'm assuming the decrease in convection as of the last few hours is probably due to dry air entrainment but a question I have nonetheless.

Models have this sitting and intensifying place, but I hadn't even considered the upwelling problem which makes me wonder if the models are even factoring that in, given all show steady-to-quick intensification.

It would be strange if they haven’t, especially the hurricane models, because the HWRF has constantly been factoring in upwelling with its stall-and-recurve scenarios for 91L.

[galaxy401]

NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.

[SconnieCane]

NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.

What a shocker in 2022.

[aspen]

NHC dropped the intensity forecast quite a bit. No longer forecasting a Category 2.

Intensity will probably depend on how much it moves in the next few days. If it inches away from where it’s been stalling, it could take off again over untapped waters.

[cycloneye]

Still at 65kt.

AL, 05, 2022090300, , BEST, 0, 379N, 434W, 65, 988, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat

[Teban54]

IMO, this likely reached an initial peak stronger than 65 kt and has weakened a bit due to upwelling.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Has underperformed bigtime as the forecast was to reach cat 2 but the upwelling has taken a toll.

[aspen]

Looks like it’s trying to form a giant eye, like the HWRF has suggested in a couple of runs.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2022090312, , BEST, 0, 381N, 439W, 60, 990, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat

[aspen]

Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.

[tolakram]

Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/fGnwNRX.jpg

The problem is that these above normal water temps are shallow, so upwelling is a much bigger deal IMO. Tough intensity forecast. If it moves enough it can get stronger, too slow and much weaker. There is almost no ocean heat content, the above normal water temps are due to lack of winds in the area.

A good source: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/

Use archive to see an OHC chart that is filled out.

[NotSparta]

Seems to still be mixing out some dry air and getting its core back in shape, but overall Danielle has improved since its somewhat anemic appearance last night. It should be on its way to becoming a hurricane later today, and probably still has a shot at becoming a Cat 2.
https://i.imgur.com/fGnwNRX.jpg

The problem is that these above normal water temps are shallow, so upwelling is a much bigger deal IMO. Tough intensity forecast. If it moves enough it can get stronger, too slow and much weaker. There is almost no ocean heat content, the above normal water temps are due to lack of winds in the area.

A good source: http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/

Use archive to see an OHC chart that is filled out.
https://i.imgur.com/o3mxHvh.png

Seems like the data cuts off at 40N so hard to say how much OHC is there once it gets north

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

I’d call danielle a hurricane again at this point. Much rounder and starting to get that deep convection back around the core. If these developments continue it should be pretty clear cut by 5pm

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2022090318, , BEST, 0, 380N, 447W, 60, 990, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal052022.dat