ATL: Ex INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

AL, 94, 2022090106, , BEST, 0, 169N, 224W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 210, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al942022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942022.dat

The 40/40 area near Cabo Verde.

Previous thread

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/j1M6BnC.png

This graphic is great. If it auto updates, it could be used by S2K to illustrate on top of the page.

Just saying...

[cycloneye]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area
of low pressure is located over and to the northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While surface observations indicate pressures are
low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently
poorly organized. There is still some chance for the system to
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further
development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Hammy]

Looks like there's two competing centers rotating around each other

[ElectricStorm]

I don't see much of a future for this one. Too far north and unfavorable conditions ahead. Wave behind it will probably have a much better chance.

[Sciencerocks]

[USTropics]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6638/tsNfX8.gif

Given how broad and expansive the mid-level circulation is, not surprised this has competing mesovortices. Taking a step back so to speak and looking at the large-scale environment really shows this:

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite imagery and surface observations show that a broad area
of low pressure is located over and to the northwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. The associated shower activity has diminished
through the day. There is still some chance for the system to
become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[tolakram]

Two centers is better than one? Good grief is this a familiar scene.

[Teban54]

Quite a convective blowup tonight, even though competing centers still exist. Wonder if this will raise its chances from the current 10/10?

[Hammy]

This wave never really had a good shot in the first place--this portion of the Atlantic probably the most unfavorable area of the tropical Atlantic, it simply came off too far north. Even 2020's Rene only managed a 35kt tropical storm passing over this area, and that was with abnormally favorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has diminished. Significant
development is not expected as this system moves generally
west-northwestward into an area of unfavorable environmental
conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.