EPAC: KAY - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Hurricane

#161 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:56 pm

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that Kay continues to weaken. The aircraft
did not find winds supporting hurricane intensity in the part of
the storm it sampled, and it reported that the central pressure has
risen to 982 mb. However, the plane was not able to sample the area
of convection just northeast of the center where the strongest
winds were likely occurring. The initial intensity is reduced to 65
kt on the premise that those winds still exist in the northeastern
quadrant. However, this could be generous.

The core of Kay will be crossing portions of Baja California near
Punta Eugenia during the next few hours, and then move back over
the cold water of the Pacific. This combination should cause
additional weakening. Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical
storm during the next few hours, and the cyclone is forecast to
lose its convection in about 48-60 h at roughly the same time the
winds drop below 35 kt. After that, the cyclone should quickly
decay to a remnant area of low pressure.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or 335/12 kt. There is
again no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A
mid-level ridge to the east of Kay should steer it on a
north-northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, a weaker and more vertically shallow Kay is expected to
turn more westward, and eventually southward to the southeast of a
low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast
again has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

Recent scatterometer and dropsonde data indicate that Kay remains a
very large tropical cyclone, with a large area of tropical-storm-
force winds over the Gulf of California. It is also producing an
extensive area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of
southwestern Mexico, the Gulf of California, and the Baja California
peninsula. Although Kay is forecast to weaken, high wind, surf, and
rainfall impacts will continue to extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

2. Hurricane conditions are occuring over portion of the central
Baja California Peninsula and should continue for a few more hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 27.1N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
12H 09/0600Z 28.7N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 30.4N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 31.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 31.7N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z 29.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

NXStumpy_Robothing
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Age: 23
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 11:50 pm
Location: North Georgia

Re: EPAC: KAY - Hurricane

#162 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:17 pm

zeehag wrote:our local sites are calling this kay a cat 3, but i think they are overestimating.. cold water doesnot a 3 make. san diegans are crying they are to get a hurricane which makes me laugh as the water is too cold to support that mess. no one in waters of la paz area or cabos area was hurt more than lost canvas which should havebeen removed anyway.(boaters new to canes forget) .. roads are washed out and bridges undermined--typical of mexican flooding and tormentas tropicales in baja. i havenot yet received reports from land dwellers.

Not sure where these local sites are getting the claim that Kay is a major hurricane considering it never made it to that point in the first place. Though, San Diego freaking out about a hurricane when at best it'd be a weak TS is quite funny and on brand. Still important to keep in mind the flash flooding risk, though it's apparent the wind risk is lower than initially feared. Stay safe!
1 likes   
Undergraduate Meteorology Student, Georgia Institute of Technology

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: KAY - Hurricane

#163 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:35 pm

Image
0 likes   

Socalhurcnegirl227
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 267
Age: 35
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: EPAC: KAY - Hurricane

#164 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:The cool water has taken its toll on Kay. Recon finding a tropical storm. It will weaken more quickly than predicted over 21C water.

Idk if its from kay but im up here in santa barbara and have extremely humid and drizzly weather coming from the south south west
0 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: KAY - Hurricane

#165 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:06 pm

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The cool water has taken its toll on Kay. Recon finding a tropical storm. It will weaken more quickly than predicted over 21C water.

Idk if its from kay but im up here in santa barbara and have extremely humid and drizzly weather coming from the south south west


From Kay’s expansive outflow.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#166 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:21 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022

...KAY CONTINUES TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 114.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from north of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De
Las Palomas on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula,
and discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Puerto Cortes to Punta
Abreojos on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#167 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:53 pm

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 08 2022

Based on satellite fixes, the center of Kay is estimated to have
moved back over the waters of the east Pacific to the north of
Punta Eugenia. Most of the deep convection is occurring over the
northern semicircle of the circulation and the cloud tops continue
to gradually warm. Using subjective Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers, the advisory intensity is set at 55 kt, although this could
still be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Kay in a few hours.

Steady weakening should occur during the next 48 hours due to
passage over progressively cooler ocean waters west of the northern
Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is a
little below the previous NHC prediction and is in good agreement
with the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM model guidance. This is
also on the high end of the intensity model suite. The system is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 48 hours,
if not sooner.

Kay continues to move north-northwestward or around 330/12 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should
steer it on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading for the
next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the weakening and increasingly
shallow Kay is expected to turn more westward, and eventually
southward to the southeast of a low-level ridge over the eastern
Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted a little
south and west of the previous one, toward the latest dynamical
model consensus.

Although it is weakening, Kay remains a fairly large tropical
cyclone. Wind, surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far
from the center so users should not focus on the exact forecast
track.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning Friday, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning Friday in Southwest Arizona.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions should continue to
spread northward during the next day or so, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this
wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products
from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 28.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 29.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 30.9N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 30.4N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z 29.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 28.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#168 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:14 pm

Wow it looks like it is going to ride up the spine of the baja! This is bad for getting a tropical storm into California. It would be better if it moved more northward and made it into the gulf.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Infdidoll
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 667
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 8:39 pm
Location: Temecula, CA

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#169 Postby Infdidoll » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:58 am

How's this for a scenario...TS Kay is heading towards a large 27,000 acre wildfire (Fairview fire) near Temecula, CA. They just evacuated thousands of people because they fear the interaction from Kay's winds blowing the fire towards homes and a city of about 100,000 people.

Wondering if the rains will be so heavy they will negate the winds and put the fire out or if the winds are going to stoke and fan the flames faster and further?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#170 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:28 am

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

After moving back offshore yesterday evening, Kay has been roughly
paralleling the northwestern coastline of the Baja California
peninsula. The satellite presentation is not all that impressive,
with the majority of the deep convective activity firing over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California and adjacent mountainous
terrain, well removed from Kay's center. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was able to reach the center earlier this
morning, and found that Kay's circulation is largely intact, with
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt and a minimum central
pressure of 990 mb. While the standard wind reduction at that flight
level would still typically support 55 kt, the SFMR-derived winds
in that area were much lower, which better match a dropsonde also
launched in the area. South of the center, there were some
significant winds observed, with a sustained wind of 44 kt at Isla
Cedros at 0630 UTC. Based on a combination of all these data, the
initial intensity was reduced to 50 kt for this advisory.

Additional weakening over the next 24-36 hours is expected as Kay
will be traversing sub-23 C sea-surface temperatures and
approaching even cooler waters in the cold California Current. The
GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models all indicate that Kay will cease to
produce organized deep convection near its center in about 36 hours,
marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low off the coast
of Southern California. The low should spin down further and
dissipate sometime in the 4-5 day forecast. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity guidance suite.

From the two recon fixes, Kay continues to move off to the
north-northwest at 330/11 kt. A narrowing mid-level ridge draped
along the northeast side of the storm is expected to maintain this
motion with a gradual turn to the northwest and west-northwest today
into tonight. As Kay loses its remaining deep convection and becomes
more shallow, the weak low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific
should result in the remnant low making a slow cyclonic turn away
from the western U.S. coastline. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit more leftward this cycle, and the latest NHC track
forecast was also shifted in that direction, towards the track
consensus aids.

Although Kay's maximum sustained winds are lower, the tropical
cyclone 34-kt wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side, as
seen in recent scatterometer data showing these tropical-storm-force
winds extending up to the northern Gulf of California coast. Wind,
surf, and rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding is likely across Southern
California beginning today, especially in and near the peninsular
ranges. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
beginning later today in Southwest Arizona.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja
California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the
northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are expected across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona later today. For information on this wind
hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from
their local NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 29.4N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 30.5N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.3N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 31.5N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0600Z 31.3N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 30.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 29.9N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 28.6N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#171 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:23 am

Windfield has reached California while this still looks like a bonafide TC. A first in my lifetime.
5 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#172 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:57 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#173 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:47 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8896
Age: 20
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#174 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:07 am

NHC now has TS-force winds in San Diego, California. This is just wild.
2 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#175 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:08 am

Tropical Storm Kay Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

Kay is gradually becoming less organized. There is currently
minimal convection near its center of circulation, although there is
a complex of convective bands occurring about 75-150 n mi north of
the center. Doppler radar data from Yuma and San Diego has shown
winds as high as 60 kt aloft, although it is unclear how well these
winds are mixing down to the surface. Based on the radar and
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to
45 kt, and this could be a bit generous. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to investigate Kay.

Kay should continue to weaken as it reaches sea surface
temperatures of 20-21C by 24 h, and the dynamical model suggest it
should stop producing convection near or just after that time. The
new intensity forecast shows the cyclone as a minimal tropical storm
in 24 h, followed by decay to a remnant low as the convection
dissipates and the winds drop below tropical-storm force. The
global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate
between 96-120 h, and the new intensity forecast follows this.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/ 11 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of Kay is expected to cause the cyclone to
gradually turn west-northwestward away from land in the next 12 h,
followed by a westward turn between 12-24 h. After that time,
low-level ridging in the Eastern Pacific should steer the remnant
low slowly southward and then southeastward before the system
dissipates completely. There was little change in the track
forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast
track is similar to the previous track.

Although Kay's intensity has decreased, the tropical cyclone 34-kt
wind radii remain quite large on its eastern side. Wind, surf, and
rainfall impacts continue to extend far from the center so users
should not focus on the exact forecast track of Kay.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall will
likely result in flash flooding, including possible landslides,
across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland
northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash, urban, and
small stream flooding is likely across Southern California beginning
today, especially in and near the peninsular ranges. Flash, urban,
and small stream flooding is possible beginning today in Arizona
and southern Nevada.

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Baja
California peninsula, and these conditions extend all the way to the
northern Gulf of California coastline, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

3. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field
are occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 30.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 31.1N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 31.4N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.4N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1200Z 31.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 30.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 29.6N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 28.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Socalhurcnegirl227
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 267
Age: 35
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#176 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:14 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NHC now has TS-force winds in San Diego, California. This is just wild.

San diego mountains has cat 3 110mph winds.
2 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#177 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:19 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 09 2022

...KAY STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 117.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia northward along the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula to the U.S./Mexico border
* Bahia de Los Angeles northward along the east coast of the Baja
California peninsula and then southward to Puerto Libertad in
mainland Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay
and consult products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 117.2 West. Kay is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today, and a turn to the west is expected by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Kay will move parallel to the coast of
the northwestern Baja California peninsula through today, and then
begin to move further offshore by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kay
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center over the Gulf of California.
During the past few hours, wind gusts of hurricane force have been
reported in the mountains of southern California east and northeast
of San Diego.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area.

Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are
occurring across portions of southern California and extreme
southwestern Arizona. For information on this wind hazard, users
should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local
NWS Weather Forecast Office.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds
along the west coast of the central and northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and along the coast of the northern Gulf of
California. The flooding could be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals
through Saturday...

Baja California: Additional rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
maxima of 10 inches. Event total rainfall 6 to 10 inches, isolated
maxima of 15 inches

Western Sonora: Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
maxima of 4 inches. Event total rainfall 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maxima of 8 inches

Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 6 to
8 inches

Arizona and Southern Nevada: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3
inches

These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides
possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large
swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California
peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern
California during the next couple of days. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#178 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:34 pm

Plenty of rain in SCAL and Arizona.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#179 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:52 pm

Definitly not common to have a cyclone on this location.

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1568236222836768771


1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7281
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: EPAC: KAY - Tropical Storm

#180 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:53 pm

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests