ATL: EARL - Advisories

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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2022 4:05 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

The structure of Earl is gradually improving, with deep convective
cold tops rotating around the core with an occasional warm spot
becoming evident on both infrared and visible satellite imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission has been flying through
Earl this afternoon, and they found a peak 700 mb flight level wind
of 90 kt in the SE quadrant of the hurricane. However, SFMR winds
have been lower than earlier observed in the NOAA P-3 mission and
the central pressure has stabilized somewhere in the 974-976 mb
range. These observations support keeping the intensity at 75 kt for
this advisory, which is also in agreement with the 1800 UTC Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Earl continues to move east
of due north estimated at 010/7 kt, and may be in the initial stages
of making a more rightward turn. The track reasoning has not changed
for the next couple of days, where Earl is expected to gradually
turn to the northeast and accelerate as it is caught in between a
mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging mid-latitude trough
to the northwest. The aforementioned trough is forecast to
ultimately capture Earl sometime in the 60-96 hour period, though
timing differences between the guidance are driving significant
along track spread in the forecast by that time. The latest NHC
track forecast was largely unchanged in the short-term, remaining
close to the tightly clustered guidance, though was shifted a bit
east compared to the prior cycle after Earl becomes extra-tropical.

The deep-layer vertical wind shear is beginning to decrease over
Earl, now under 20-kt in both GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance.
This shear is forecast to decrease further tonight and be 10 kt or
under from 24-48 hours. Sea-surface temperatures are also expected
to remain at 29 C or warmer over this same time span. In terms of
the high-resolution regional hurricane model guidance, the most
recent HMON, experimental HAFS-S and HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC all
explicitly show Earl becoming a Category 4 hurricane over the next
48-60h. The COAMPS-TC ensemble from the 00z cycle also indicated at
least 75 percent of its members becoming a Category 4 hurricane as
the hurricane passes by to the southeast of Bermuda. Finally, DTOPS
RI-probabilities from the latest SHIPS run indicate a greater than
50 percent chance of a 35 kt increase in intensity over the next 24
hours. While the latest intensity forecast will not go quite that
high, it does show a 40 kt increase in intensity in 48 hours still
making Earl a Category 4 hurricane. While it is relatively rare to
see such an intense hurricane at that latitude in the forecast
period, the guidance support, plus the favorable environment of Earl
being positioned in the right entrance region of a upper-level jet
streak ahead of the trough should provide both good dynamical
support on top of the favorable thermodynamic environment by the
warm SSTs. After 60 h, Earl will likely rapidly undergo
extra-tropical transition as an upper-level trough digs in and
captures Earl, increasing baroclinicity and removing the deep
convection as the storm moves poleward of the Gulf Stream.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning Thursday afternoon
and continuing through Friday morning. The Bermuda Weather Service
has also issued a Hurricane Watch for the island.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 27.8N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 29.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 32.0N 62.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 38.6N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 41.8N 50.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:00 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 07 2022

Earl has resumed intensifying this evening. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported a maximum flight-level wind of 107 kt (which
reduces to an intensity of about 95 kt), and the central pressure
has fallen to 970 mb. Both SFMR and dropsonde data support surface
winds of 80 kt. Onboard radar has also confirmed a rather large eye
of almost 60 miles (90 km) and a fairly symmetric wind field. The
initial intensity is increased to 85 kt as a blend of all available
aircraft data, and considering the drop in pressure.

Aircraft center fixes confirm that Earl is still moving northward at
about 8 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn
north-northeastward and northeastward and accelerate as Earl moves
between a mid-level ridge to the southeast, and a digging
mid-latitude trough to the northwest in the next couple of days.
The trough is forecast to capture Earl, however there is some
uncertainty in the model guidance to the timing of this interaction
resulting in a larger spread in the along-track positions beyond 72
hours. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous
forecast and close to the model consensus aids.

The apparent decrease in deep-layer vertical wind shear has likely
allowed Earl to strengthen. Global model guidance suggests the
shear will continue to abate over the next 36 hours and with
atmospheric conditions remaining conducive, further intensification
is expected. The NHC intensity forecast now shows a quicker rate of
strengthening to a peak of 115 kt at 36 hours. Earl is expected to
undergo extra-tropical transition in a few days when it moves to
higher latitudes and interacts with an upper-level trough.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
the wind field is expected to grow, with tropical-storm-force winds
forecast to spread across the island beginning late Thursday and
continuing through Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda late Thursday or Thursday night if Earl's track
shifts farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by
tonight and the U.S. East Coast shortly thereafter. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 27.2N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 36.6N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 40.2N 53.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 42.9N 49.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z 45.0N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 46.4N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:54 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

Earl has developed a 20-30 n mi wide eye in infrared satellite
imagery, although a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
indicates that the circulation is still tilted toward the east with
height due to continued moderate shear. That said, this particular
flight measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR
winds as high as 82 kt, while the central pressure dropped to 969
mb. Recent research on SFMR measurements from the NOAA Hurricane
Research Division and the University of Miami has shown that the
SFMR undersampling for a hurricane of Earl's size is typically
about 10 percent, which would suggest that the maximum winds are up
to around 90 kt. This estimate also more closely aligns to the
107-kt flight-level wind measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
flight last evening.

The reconnaissance mission found Earl's low-level center to be
located just a bit to the west of the previous forecast track, and
it's still moving toward the north (005 degrees) at 8 kt. With a
shortwave trough now moving off the New England and Mid-Atlantic
coasts, Earl is expected to turn north-northeastward and begin
accelerating later today, with its center forecast to pass
50-100 n mi to the southeast of Bermuda during the next 12 to 24
hours. Earl should then turn northeastward in about 36 hours and
reach its fastest forward speed in about 48 hours. Soon thereafter,
Earl is forecast to become embedded within the aforementioned
trough, which will cause it to slow down considerably and possibly
even meander to the southeast of Newfoundland in 3 to 4 days. The
new NHC track prediction is shifted a bit westward during the first
48 hours, mainly to account for the recent movement of Earl's
center. The forecast is a bit north of and slower than the previous
forecast on days 3 through 5, shifted toward the GFS, ECMWF, and
multi-model consensus aids.

Deep-layer shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in just
a few hours. Along with waters remaining at or above 29 degrees
Celsius for the next 36 hours, the more conducive atmospheric
conditions are expected to cause Earl to strengthen further,
reaching major hurricane intensity later today, and likely peaking
in strength in 36-48 hours. Earl will start to become involved
with a frontal boundary and deep-layer trough in about 48 hours,
and its transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone is now
expected to be complete to the southeast of Newfoundland by 60
hours. The extratropical low is expected to weaken rather quickly,
with its winds falling below hurricane force between days 3 and 4.
The NHC intensity prediction closely follows the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids for much of the 5-day forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this
afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts
farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 28.2N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 29.6N 64.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.0N 63.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 35.1N 59.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 39.1N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 42.4N 51.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 44.3N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 45.4N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 46.7N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:01 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...EARL MOVING A BIT FASTER JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 65.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 10:03 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

The convective structure of Earl this morning is interesting, with a
large convective band with cloud tops below -70 C completing one
full cyclonic orbit around the hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
earlier indicated that the central pressure had fallen from last
night, with the final reading at 965 mb. However, the 700 mb flight
level, SFMR, and tail Doppler radar winds have yet to respond to the
continued falling pressure. Therefore, the wind speed this advisory
will be held at 90 kt. Of note, the aircraft mission is reporting
that Earl has a fairly large closed eye , with an estimated
diameter of 50 n mi.

Based on the last few center fixes, Earl is starting to make the
turn to the north-northeast as it gradually accelerates, estimated
at 030/11 kt. A shortwave trough in the process of moving offshore
of the Eastern U.S. coastline and this feature, in combination with
mid-level ridging to the east of Earl, is expected to cause Earl to
bend further eastward as the flow accelerates. There have been very
few changes made to the NHC forecast track over the first 24-48
hours, with Earl expected to pass 75-100 n mi to the southeast of
Bermuda tonight into tomorrow morning. Shortly after 48 hours, Earl
will be captured by the digging shortwave trough with model guidance
indicating it will undergo a warm-seclusion-type extratropical
transition. This process will also likely result in a substantial
slow-down in the forward motion between 48-72 hours, and this
portion of the track forecast has the largest along-track spread,
related to the degree of phasing between Earl and this trough.
Thereafter, their combination should begin to move eastward into the
Atlantic Maritimes by the end of the forecast period, opting to
favor a blend between the GFS and ECMWF track solutions.

Per the latest SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear over Earl is now
under 10 kt and is forecast to remain that way for the next 24 hours
as Earl traverses over 29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, steady
intensification is expected, with the assumption that the current
core structure of Earl fully consolidates and takes advantage of
this favorable environment. The peak intensity of 115 kt is still
under the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. After 36 hours, Earl will
begin to undergo extratropical transition as the trough interaction
introduces substantial baroclinicity as vertical wind shear rapidly
increases. Earl is expected to transition into a powerful
hurricane-force extratropical low sometime between 48-60 hours, with
this low filling rather quickly thereafter, in good agreement with
the intensity consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island this
afternoon through early Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds are
possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl's track shifts
farther west than is currently forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 29.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 30.7N 64.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 33.5N 61.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 40.9N 53.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 43.6N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 44.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 46.1N 46.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 47.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:03 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

Earl's intensification trend from last night took an unexpected halt
this morning, which was unusual given the reduction in vertical wind
shear. While an SSMIS pass at 1056 UTC showed a closed mid-level
eyewall, a more recent AMSR2 pass at 1717 UTC indicated that Earl
likely entrained some dry air that degraded the mid-level eyewall
structure, with a large cyclonic spiral opening to the west that
matched conventional satellite imagery at the time. The Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft has been sampling the hurricane this
afternoon, finding a minimum central pressure of 961 mb, but similar
to this morning, only found 700 mb flight level winds of 93 kt
(which reduces to 83 kt) and peak SFMR winds even lower at 64 kt.
Given these lastest in-situ observations, the initial intensity is
adjusted to 85 kt for this advisory. The aircraft observations, in
combination with ASCAT data, also indicate that Earl wind field is
growing larger, with 34-kt and 50-kt radii expanding in the
southeastern quadrant.

Earl is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast, with
aircraft fixes indicating an estimated motion of 030/13 kt. Further
acceleration and a more northeastward turn is anticipated tonight
and tomorrow as Earl is caught up in the southwesterly flow between
a mid-level ridge to the east, and a digging mid-latitude trough to
the northwest. The guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered
upon the previous forecast track in over the next 24 hours, and very
few changes were made during this period for the latest NHC track.
On this path, Earl should make its closest approach about 75-100 n
mi southeast of Bermuda at around 0600 UTC. The same trough
mentioned above is then expected to capture Earl in 48-60 hours,
resulting in substantial slowdown in Earl's motion as the two
features phase together. This is the time period where the guidance
continues to exhibit a lot of along-track spread, related to the
degree of trough interaction, though the guidance this cycle has
shifted towards a stronger phasing solution, likely resulting in a
additional slowdown. The latest track forecast is not quite as slow
or far east as the latest GFS or ECMWF solutions, so further
adjustments may be needed if these trends continue.

Deep-layer (200-850 mb) vertical wind shear over Earl is now quite
low, under 10 knots per the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS. However, the
structural degradation in Earl's inner core today has thrown a
monkey wrench in the anticipated intensification that was expected
to occur today. In fact, while the pressure has still been slowly
decreasing, it seems to have resulted in the wind field growing more
than strengthening the maximum sustained winds. While it is likely
that Earl will be able to mix out the earlier dry-air entrainment
near the core, it has shortened the window of favorable conditions
for intensification before the shear begins to rapidly increase
again in 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast has been reduced a
bit this cycle, now only showing a 105 kt peak in 24 hours, which is
now under the HCCA and LGEM guidance and closer to the ICVN
consensus aid. After 36 hours, increasing baroclinicity will lead to
a rapid increase in vertical wind shear, and extratropical
transition will likely be underway (likely a warm-seclusion-type
event), and be complete by 48 hours. The powerful extratropical low
is then forecast to weaken steadily, in agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning. Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda
tonight if Earl's track shifts farther west than currently
forecast.

2. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are
expected to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
through the weekend. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 30.3N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 32.1N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 35.2N 59.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 42.6N 51.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z 44.0N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 45.8N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:09 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 64.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...170 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 08, 2022 9:55 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 08 2022

The satellite and airborne radar presentation of Earl has continued
to degrade this evening. The eye has expanded to 50 n mi wide,
become more ragged in appearance, and is open to the south. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system has only found
peak flight-level winds of 89 kt and surface wind measurements of 75
kt. The minimum central pressure has also risen to a reported 964
mb. Based on these data and accounting for potential undersampling
of the wind field, the initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt
on this advisory cycle.

The hurricane is moving north-northeastward at 13 kt. The forward
motion is expected to increase as Earl is caught up in the
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the east, and a
digging mid-latitude trough to the northwest. A mid-level trough
moving off the eastern seaboard is forecast to capture the storm and
slow Earl's motion off the Canadian coast. There is some
uncertainty in timing of this interaction which is leading to a
larger spread in model track guidance in the 60-96 h forecast
range.

Statistical model guidance insists that Earl has another day or so
of conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in which to
strengthen. However, the recent degradation in structural
organization of the hurricane may be difficult to overcome in a
short period of time. The peak intensity of the official forecast
has been lowered to 100 kt at 24 hours. Beyond a day, the vertical
wind shear is predicted to increase dramatically and induce rapid
weakening, and extratropical transition is likely to occur within 48
hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Earl's center is forecast to pass southeast of Bermuda,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected on the island tonight into
tomorrow morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and are expected
to reach the U.S. East Coast tonight. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the
weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 31.3N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 33.3N 61.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 36.9N 57.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 40.7N 53.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 43.3N 51.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 45.0N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 45.8N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 46.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 4:21 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Radar data from Bermuda and conventional satellite images show that
Earl's structure has improved a bit overnight with the eye becoming
better defined and the overall cloud envelope looking more
symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured
a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 97 kt and SFMR winds as high as
77 kt, with the central pressure down slightly to 963 mb. Based on
the typical reduction of the flight-level winds, and accounting for
undersampling of the surface winds, Earl's initial intensity is
raised back to 85 kt. Reconnaissance and scatterometer data also
indicate that Earl's wind field has continued to expand.

Earl is accelerating toward the north-northeast (030 degrees at 15
kt) ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from the west near the
New England coast. The hurricane is forecast to turn northeastward
today and continue accelerating to speeds of 25-30 kt within 24
hours. After that time, however, Earl will merge with the
aforementioned trough, slowing down considerably to speeds of around
5 kt to the southeast of Newfoundland in 60-72 hours. By days 4 and
5, the system should then move a little bit faster toward the east,
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is
in generally good agreement for much of the 5-day forecast period,
and no significant changes were made to the updated NHC track
forecast.

Earl will remain over warm waters for another 24 hours or so, and
the deep-layer shear should be low to moderate during the next 6 to
12 hours. As a result, some additional strengthening is anticipated
through tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the IVCN
consensus during that period. A few models, including SHIPS, LGEM,
and HCCA, still bring Earl to major hurricane strength in 24 hours,
but given that the cyclone will be starting to undergo extratropical
transition by then, that scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely
(although not impossible). Global model fields indicate that Earl
should complete the transition to a powerful extratropical low by 36
hours and then gradually weaken through the remainder of the
forecast period. During the extratropical phase, the NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the GFS solution.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to diminish on Bermuda
later this morning.

2. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 32.7N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 35.0N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 39.2N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 42.7N 52.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1800Z 44.9N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 45.5N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 45.4N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 46.0N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:49 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
800 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

...EARL HEADING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 61.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 10:02 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

During the past six hours, Earl's satellite appearance has
oscillated between periods of gaining symmetry and becoming more
ragged, with the latter winning out right now. In fact, Earl's
previously clear eye has become partially obscured by clouds during
the last hour or two. Satellite-based intensity estimates range from
70-100 kt, but since those estimates generally haven't changed much
since the last advisory, the hurricane's intensity is held at 85 kt
for now.

Whether Earl's recent satellite degradation is another temporary
hiccup or the start of a weakening trend as it undergoes
extratropical transition over the next 24 h isn't yet clear, but
either way the intensity guidance is now in good agreement that
little or no intensification is expected going forward. Dynamical
models including the GFS and ECMWF are also in very good agreement
that Earl will become post-tropical by Saturday afternoon or
evening. This transition should coincide with the cyclone's maximum
winds to decreasing sharply while the extent of its tropical storm
or gale-force winds expands. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous advisory, but is
still on the high end of the narrow intensity guidance envelope
through 72 h. The official intensity forecast is based heavily on
the consensus after that.

Earl continues to accelerate toward the northeast ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough off the New England and Atlantic Canada
coasts. This should cause Earl to accelerate further today and
tonight before it merges with the trough and slows to a relative
crawl southeast of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone in about
48 h. Around day 4-5, the broader mid-latitude system should move
faster eastward, bringing extratropical Earl with it. Only minor
adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 34.2N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 37.0N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 41.0N 54.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 43.5N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 44.4N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 45.1N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 45.5N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 45.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 46.0N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 3:45 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl's large (and at times ragged) eye and surrounding convection
were finally organized enough at 1800 UTC to get consensus Dvorak
classifications of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB, an indication that the
hurricane has strengthened slightly with an estimated intensity of
90 kt. Even then, a mid-latitude frontal feature is quickly
approaching from the northwest, a sign that Earl isn't likely to
last much longer as a relatively symmetric hurricane. In fact,
since 18Z, Earl's eye has already become partially obscured by
clouds once again.

The hurricane continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and is
forecast to accelerate further during the next 12 h ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Earl is forecast to merge with
this feature and slow abruptly in about 36 to 48 h. A slightly
faster eastward motion is forecast around day 4-5. The track model
guidance remains tightly packed around the multi-model consensus,
which is the basis of the NHC forecast once again. Only small
modifications were made to the track forecast with this advisory.

Earl has a few more hours before it begins extratropical transition
and some very short-term further intensification can't be completely
ruled out. However, by tomorrow morning Earl should begin to
steadily weaken as it becomes post-tropical. As noted before, the
wind field of Earl will expand even as its peak winds begin to
decrease, which will cause it to continue to produce large waves and
swell across a large portion of the western Atlantic. This will
contribute to a high risk of rip currents across the U.S. East
Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are expected to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight
and on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 35.9N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 39.0N 55.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 42.3N 53.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0600Z 43.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 43.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 44.4N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 44.7N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 45.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 09, 2022 9:50 pm

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 09 2022

Earl has maintained its rather large eye that is encircled by
cloud tops as cold as -70 degrees C this evening. Microwave
satellite imagery also shows that Earl still has a symmetric
inner core and there are no indications of transitioning into an
extratropical cyclone yet. Satellite Dvorak classifications from
SAB and TAFB were 5.0 and therefore, the initial intensity remains
at 90 kt.

The cyclone has increased in forward speed to the northeast at an
estimated 45/25 kt. This motion is expected to continue for another
12 hours or so before Earl merges with a mid-latitude trough located
just west of the storm. Upon merging, Earl is expected to slow down
off the coast of Newfoundland in about 24 hours for a couple of days
while turning eastward. In about 3 days, Earl is likely to
accelerate eastward over the North Atlantic. The official track
forecast is slightly faster and a little south of the previous
prediction and close to the corrected model consensus aids.

As stated earlier, there are no signs of Earl beginning its
extratropical transition yet. However, statistical model guidance
suggests the vertical wind shear will rapidly increase over the
hurricane shortly and induce weakening. The tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to expand as Earl becomes a post-tropical cyclone
over the next day or so. This will cause it to continue to produce
large waves and swell in a vast area of the western Atlantic even
as Earl weakens. There is a high risk of rip current conditions
across the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland
through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and the U.S. East
Coast and are beginning to reach Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 38.1N 55.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 41.2N 53.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 43.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1200Z 43.8N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 44.2N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 44.5N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 44.7N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 45.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 46.0N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2022 4:33 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Earl is in the first stages of extratropical transition. The
convective cloud pattern is becoming stretched east to west, and
the eye is rapidly losing definition while an extensive cirrus
shield radiates northward away from the hurricane. Scatterometer
data from last evening showed that Earl's wind field continues to
expand and was beginning to merge with the strong winds behind an
approaching frontal boundary. Maximum winds are still estimated to
be 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak data-T and Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The hurricane continues to accelerate just ahead of a shortwave
trough and is estimated to be moving rapidly northeastward (035
degrees) at 30 kt. However, Earl will be merging with this trough
within the next 6 to 12 hours, which will cause it to slam on the
brakes southeast of Newfoundland, slowing to speeds of 5 kt or less
beginning tonight and continuing through Monday. After Monday, a
less amplified upper-level pattern should cause the system to turn
eastward and pick up some speed. The updated NHC track forecast
has been shifted a bit northwestward during the first couple of
days of the forecast and lies within the tightly packed guidance
envelope. The NHC prediction then comes back in line with
the previous forecast on days 3 through 5. The northwestward
shift of the track, along with Earl's large wind field, is expected
to lead to strong winds occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through
Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland,
please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada.

Global model fields show Earl's center migrating into the cold side
of the nearby frontal zone today, with extratropical transition
forecast to be complete this afternoon. This process, along with
Earl now crossing the tight sea surface temperature gradient north
of the Gulf Stream, is expected to induce a weakening trend, with
the cyclone's winds likely falling below hurricane force by
tonight. Continued weakening at a more gradual pace is anticipated
from Sunday onward into the middle of the week. The NHC intensity
forecast most closely follows the GFS and ECMWF solutions given
that Earl will soon be extratropical.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday,
after Earl becomes a post-tropical low.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 41.2N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 43.2N 52.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0600Z 44.1N 51.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 44.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 44.7N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 44.8N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 44.7N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 44.9N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 45.3N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2022 9:45 am

Hurricane Earl Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Earl continues to undergo extratropical transition as it merges
with the mid-latitude trough seen in GOES-16 airmass imagery near
and to the west of the hurricane. The central convection is
starting to shear away from the low-level center and cold-air clouds
are wrapping around the south side of the circulation. The initial
intensity is reduced to 80 kt based on a combination of subjective
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates.

Earl should complete extratropical transition during the next 6 h
or so, with the system maintaining hurricane-force winds during
this time. After that, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken
during the next 72 h as it moves over the open North Atlantic. The
new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward during the first
48 h to match the trend of the intensity guidance, and then is
similar to the previous forecast.

Earl has turned a little to the left and slowed its forward motion
since the last advisory, with the initial motion now 025/25 kt. As
Earl merges with the mid-latitude trough, an additional
significant decease in forward speed is expected during the next 12
h, followed by a slow northeastward motion that should continue
through Sunday night. Subsequently, Earl should be steered
generally eastward by the mid-latitude westerlies. The new
forecast track has been shifted to the northwest of the previous
track during the first 36 h and is close to the previous track
thereafter. The northwestward shift of the track, along with
Earl's large wind field, is expected to lead to strong winds
occurring over the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland beginning this
afternoon and continuing through Sunday. For additional information
on impacts in Newfoundland, please monitor forecasts and warnings
from Environment Canada.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday,
after Earl becomes a post-tropical low.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 42.9N 53.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 44.4N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1200Z 45.0N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 45.2N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z 45.4N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0000Z 45.3N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 45.3N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: EARL - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

...EARL BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Earl Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022
500 PM AST Sat Sep 10 2022

Satellite imagery shows that Earl has completed extratropical
transition, with well-developed frontal features and a central core
that is void of deep convection. While recent scatterometer
overpasses did not sample the strongest winds, it showed that Earl
remains both large and powerful as an extratropical low. So, the
initial intensity is set at 75 kt at this time. The global models
are in good agreement that the system should gradually weaken
during the forecast period, with the maximum winds dropping below
hurricane force between 12-24 h. The intensity forecast follows
the trend of the intensity guidance and has some minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

Earl has slowed its forward speed considerably since the last
advisory, with the motion now 025/9 kt. A slow movement toward the
northeast is expected during the next 36 h as the system merges
with a mid-latitude trough. After that, the post-tropical cyclone
is expected to move eastward through 96 h, followed by an
east-northeastward motion. The track guidance has shifted
southward between 36-72 h, and the new forecast track is adjusted
southward during that time as well. The forecast slow motion,
along with Earl's large wind field, will cause strong winds over
the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland from this afternoon through
Sunday. For additional information on impacts in Newfoundland,
please monitor forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada.

The is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Earl. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong winds are expected over the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland this afternoon through Sunday.

2. Large swells generated by Earl will affect Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 43.6N 52.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0600Z 44.3N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 45.0N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 44.9N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0600Z 44.7N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 44.7N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 45.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z 47.5N 36.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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